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Thread: One simple fix that costs nothing

  1. #91
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    While I'm all for getting better players, I think there's a (some superlative between nominal and significant) improvement gained by moving Cozart down in the lineup.

    Mock if you must. Discuss if you can.
    Very possible. And while those numbers are pretty convincing...they're still based upon what guys have been doing in different situations. Moving Votto to the 2 hole might make him produce LESS. Same with the other guys. I just think that you can't just plug and play with PEOPLE. Numbers, yes. People, no.

    (I hope it hasn't come across that I'm mocking the computer models (or the posters) because I'm not. I find them interesting and useful...just not the solution...simply more info)
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

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  3. #92
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    The offense has been awful for five weeks, I'm not sure I'm going to eschew a lineup modification that statistically should produce more runs because hypothetically it might make things worse due to emotions or whatever.

  4. #93
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by malcontent View Post
    Howzabout Alex Gordon?
    If the Royals are looking to move him, yes absolutely.

    Ideally, I would rant the target to be right handed, but I'm not saying no to Gordon because of that.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

  5. #94
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Very possible. And while those numbers are pretty convincing...they're still based upon what guys have been doing in different situations. Moving Votto to the 2 hole might make him produce LESS. Same with the other guys. I just think that you can't just plug and play with PEOPLE. Numbers, yes. People, no.

    (I hope it hasn't come across that I'm mocking the computer models (or the posters) because I'm not. I find them interesting and useful...just not the solution...simply more info)
    There is no reason to believe any player's stats would change too greatly in a different spot in the lineup. Usually, any differences in this regard are within the expected statistical variation. These guys will continue to be the same humans no matter what order we see them in. What we're trying to improve is the sum of their skills as a group.

    Also, more runs = happy players. If you want to look at it that way.
    Last edited by RedEye; 07-08-2013 at 09:31 AM.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  6. #95
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    If the Royals are looking to move him, yes absolutely.

    Ideally, I would rant the target to be right handed, but I'm not saying no to Gordon because of that.
    I doubt KC moves him. He's part of their solution.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  7. #96
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    I think it needs pointed out that lineup construction optimization is purely theoretical. We haven't ever had any empirical results to test in a controlled environment. It's all based on theory using Markov Chains.

    While I'm sure that there is some element of truth to scoring more runs based on the 'optimal' lineup, rarely is something optimal going to actually be optimal. It's like the car manufacturers that tell you their car will get 'x' miles to the gallon. The testing is usually done under 'optimal' condition with no wind or other weather conditions impacting performance, without radio and air conditioning running, no windows down, etc. Same way with baseball lineups... under optimal conditions, they may produce such optimization but the margin of error is probably pretty big.

    One other notable thing is that the difference between what the current lineup *should* have manufactured and what moving Cozart down one spot would be expected to manufacture is 11 runs or one win. Dusty hasn't used his worst lineup all season and he's still 7 runs fewer than what the optimal lineup says they should have scored if he'd used it.

    Point is, even in theory, the difference between the lineups Dusty HAS used and what should happen by switching Cozart is likely negligible.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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  9. #97
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Keeping the status quo is playing not to lose.

    It's a very conservative approach.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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  11. #98
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    SC, these lineups are computed using the career stats of players. The slot a player hits in the order has minimal effect on his own stats, which usually will trend toward those career norms. What it does do is change the order in which those stats take place. That changes the situations in which your best hitters come to the plate.

    The most painful example of this every day for me is when Cozart comes up with two out and Votto in the on-deck circle.
    It also changes the situations in which your worst hitters come to the plate. And it also changes how the pitcher throws that day.

    I'm not against moving Zack out of the 2 hole. I'm against us assuming that it improves the offense automatically because it automatically makes the bottom of the order much easier to navigate too. It may increase the top of the order by 5 runs, but decrease the bottom of the order by 6 runs (yes, I just pulled those numbers out of my butt). Net result, worse productions. Who knows. I've got zero problem giving it a shot as switching things up regardless of who and where will quite often break up the routine and change your results. The main reason I'd like to see a bit of juggling to the lineup is because it sometimes gets a guy going who's in a funk. And that's what we really need. Not a specific batting order. We need guys to break out of slumps. Time to toss some bats in the shower. :O)
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  12. #99
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    There is no reason to believe any player's stats would change too greatly in a different spot in the lineup. Usually, any differences in this regard are within the expected statistical variation. These guys will continue to be the same humans no matter what order we see them in. What we're trying to improve is the sum of their skills as a group.

    Also, more runs = happy players. If you want to look at it that way.
    And what I've been saying is getting overlooked. The aspect on what the pitcher has to deal with. Allowing him to regroup too easily after a tougher stretch of the lineup. A pitcher who is in a groove is much tougher to deal with for ANY hitter. Yes, even Votto.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  13. #100
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Putting more guys on base for your best hitters makes your offense better. How much? That could be argued, but it undoubtedly makes it better.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

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  15. #101
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Look at the stats for every hitter on the Reds besides Votto, Choo and Bruce.

    That seems to be the broader problem here.

    As for Cozart hitting second, I think the Reds were expecting him to get hot. He showed good power last year.

    They will probably give up and change the batting order soon. Anyone who thinks this is merely Baker is likely wrong, Walt and others see the situation, they are in the loop, they understand the issue.

    But the real problem is Cozart, Frazier, Phillips, Paul, Robinson, Heisey, Hanigan, Mesoraco, Ludwick. Some are hurt, some haven't hit, some are slumping, some may not be ready.

    Lot of bad offensive numbers for most of the guys.

  16. #102
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    But the real problem is Cozart, Frazier, Phillips, Paul, Robinson, Heisey, Hanigan, Mesoraco, Ludwick. Some are hurt, some haven't hit, some are slumping, some may not be ready.

    Lot of bad offensive numbers for most of the guys.
    Of course I agree with you here. But I think the solution -- failing some magic potion to make these guys all better -- is to lump together the best hitters at the beginning of the lineup.

  17. #103
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    And what I've been saying is getting overlooked. The aspect on what the pitcher has to deal with. Allowing him to regroup too easily after a tougher stretch of the lineup. A pitcher who is in a groove is much tougher to deal with for ANY hitter. Yes, even Votto.
    But the evidence suggests that this would have minimal effect on run production over the long haul.

  18. #104
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Point is, even in theory, the difference between the lineups Dusty HAS used and what should happen by switching Cozart is likely negligible.
    This is, of course, also a theoretical assumption on your part. All of the models available point to some sort of increase in runs with a change in lineup. Some say it will be negligible, others say it will be rather substantial. What they all agree on is that a change is likely to add runs than the status quo. I can't understand why anyone would want to stand pat when there is the distinct possibility for improvement -- however minimal. Seasons often come down to negligible differences.
    Last edited by RedEye; 07-08-2013 at 10:26 AM.

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  20. #105
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    For all the people who keep harping on the thing of getting Choo, Phillips, Votto & Bruce at the top of the order...have any of you taken a look at what that does to the rest of the batting order? Sure, it looks great seeing those 4 at the top and grouped together. But after the pitcher gets through with those 4...the remainder of the batting order becomes a walk in the park, no?

    Let me be clear, I like trying to get my best hitters as many ab's as possible too. I get that concept. But I also look at our lineup from the perspective of the opposing pitcher too. Grouping them together like that (our best hitters) it seems to me it makes it easier on the opposing pitcher, because if he gets through that group (and there IS a good chance he will...simple odds) then it'll make it easier to get into a rhythm with a long line of easier outs in a row. I might not be explaining this as well as I like, but if you spread them out a bit more (your best hitters) you limit the "easy inning" opportunities for the opposing pitcher. I'm not just talking about l-r-l-r and stuff...but rather just the intensity and focus required of the pitcher when facing more difficult outs.
    Hey, if you do that, then if they start getting on base - preferably via a walk - then they will magically score runs.
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