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Thread: Is the offense in serious trouble?

  1. #16
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Is the offense in serious trouble?

    Quote Originally Posted by RiverRat13 View Post
    As a coach, that's the argument that makes my skin crawl. It's usually one made by the parent of a kid who isn't very good... "he never gets to play so we'll never know if he's any good".

    Hamilton would be a desperation move at this point. If the Reds tank the rest of the month while BH gets hot, maybe you'd see it happen. That's the only scenario that I'd think it could happen.
    I've coached 17 seasons of varsity sports including the regionals this past fall and we lost in the regional finals (lead 2-0 in the 6th) to the eventual state champ this spring.....so I get what you're saying but I still believe it would work for a short term spurt to get this offense going.

    I made a comment and no one has to agree....that's fine. I'm not speaking another word about BH in this thread and apologize if this thread gets overwhelmed with BH talk.

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  3. #17
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    Re: Is the offense in serious trouble?

    The Reds have an above-average offense this year. To see if this was in line with what was projected, I took a look at the ZIPS wOBA projections for each regular. Looking at the five bats who have played every day and that we are fairly confident will be back next season (Votto, BP, Bruce, Fraizer, and Cozart), this year Votto, Bruce and Frazier are almost perfectly in line with their projections. BP's recent slump has taken him to eight points under his projection while Cozart's struggles (BABIP related?) has him 20 points under his projection. I think considering their ages that all five are pretty good bets to be about the same next year as they are this year, hopefully with a bit of an uptick from Cozart.

    So the question becomes can Ludwick and Mes (assuming he starts getting the majority of playing time) improve the LF and C situation enough to make up for the major downgrade that I think we all project the team to take going from Choo to Hamilton*. If Ludwick could repeat his 2012, I think the offense next year would still be in the top three or four in the NL. Really, if he can post a wOBA north of .350, that would probably do. But with Ludwick being an older guy coming off a major injury, that may be a big gamble to expect.

    *Obviously Hamilton is a good bet to be a big time defensive upgrade over Choo, which will lessen the offensive difference between the two to a certain extent.
    Last edited by RiverRat13; 07-07-2013 at 11:11 PM.

  4. #18
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Is the offense in serious trouble?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    I made a comment and no one has to agree....that's fine. I'm not speaking another word about BH in this thread and apologize if this thread gets overwhelmed with BH talk.
    It's not that I don't agree necessarily -- I'm just wondering what you base your claim on, and surprised that you are recoiling when folks ask you to explain it. To me, BH's performance so far in AAA suggests he is not yet ready to provide the "spurt" that you are suggesting, but I'm willing to admit that I could be wrong. Do you think he would hit enough to energize the offense? I'm skeptical -- and no matter how fast he runs down the first base line, he won't make a difference if he's not on first. And that's not even mentioning that he just switched to a new position.

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  6. #19
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    Re: Is the offense in serious trouble?

    Ludwick will help but he may be like a waiver signing in the midst of August.

    This offense just isn't built for the postseason.

  7. #20
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Is the offense in serious trouble?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    This offense just isn't built for the postseason.
    How so? (sorry to keep bugging you, but...)

  8. #21
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    Re: Is the offense in serious trouble?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I agree that it does look like Choo and Votto are battling pitchers far more effectively. I guess what I'm saying is that, for all we know, the other players are trying to do the same thing but failing. What Choo and Votto do is great -- but not everyone can do it. That's why they are Choo and Votto. BP and Frazier have had some success doing things the way they do, and for whatever reason they aren't able to modify their approaches and still maintain success. Your argument presumes that all ML hitters are able to suddenly become different. They aren't.
    I specifically said Hanigan wants to but can't.

    BP and Frazier battle the heck out of pitchers with 2 strikes.....but have a completely different approach until then.

  9. #22
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Is the offense in serious trouble?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    I specifically said Hanigan wants to but can't.

    BP and Frazier battle the heck out of pitchers with 2 strikes.....but have a completely different approach until then.
    What I am saying is that not all players can be Choo or Votto. There is no guarantee that if BP or Frazier tried they could succeed with the other way of doing things. Any team would love to have a lineup full of Votto's and Choo's -- but you see why that's not possible, don't you?
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  10. #23
    malingered here too long malcontent's Avatar
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    Re: Is the offense in serious trouble?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    I specifically said Hanigan wants to but can't.
    Hanigan needs to be more aggressive on the first pitch.

    He's been taking meatball after meatball for strike one.
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  11. #24
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Is the offense in serious trouble?

    Quote Originally Posted by malcontent View Post
    Hanigan needs to be more aggressive on the first pitch.

    He's been taking meatball after meatball for strike one.
    He's about as overmatched at the plate as ol soft J used to be

  12. #25
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    Re: Is the offense in serious trouble?

    Quote Originally Posted by malcontent View Post
    Hanigan needs to be more aggressive on the first pitch.

    He's been taking meatball after meatball for strike one.
    It wouldn't matter how aggressive Hanny is at the plate, the guy has zero pop in his bat. I'm not talking just home run pop, I mean he never hits the ball hard. He was never a world beater so I don't know if its injury or just the decline of a 30 something catcher who wasn't much of a hitter to begin with, but his lack of slugging and athleticism on the bases is pretty tough to watch.
    I know a lot of people are talking about his on-base percentage (.308 in 2008), but I like to think more in terms of him his in-scoring position percentage. - Our Beloved Manager

  13. #26
    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Is the offense in serious trouble?

    Quote Originally Posted by malcontent View Post
    Hanigan needs to be more aggressive on the first pitch.

    He's been taking meatball after meatball for strike one.
    So how does one verify these statements? I just glanced at the "play by play" from the beginning of the season and I'm not seeing it. But I don't have the time to go game by game. I have to imagine that the statistics are available, but I have no idea where those are found. Just through the first four games, he had 15 PA's, he took 7 balls, 4 called strikes and 4 swinging strikes. One PA was an intentional walk and one swinging strike was an immediate first pitch line out.

    For those who know their way around statistical review, are these true statements?

    Caveat: I fully understand this is a tiny sample size, but again, I don't have the time to manually do this and I suspect the data is out there that someone knows how to retrieve.
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  14. #27
    Member cumberlandreds's Avatar
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    Re: Is the offense in serious trouble?

    The Reds have four positions that are underperforming to what a team needs. Basically the entire left side;3rd,ss and LF plus the catcher. When there is a lefty pitching you can add in CF but Choo does still get on base at an acceptable level against lefties. The Reds really need upgrades at two of those four positions or much better performance in the 2nd half. Maybe Ludwick can help but I'm not counting on that. Maybe there is a trade available but I wouldn't count too much on that unless the Reds want to trade some young pitching. I still think the Reds can make the playoffs with what they have and if the performance continues as is. But it will be a struggle and I would doubt they would advance in the playoffs.
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  15. #28
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Is the offense in serious trouble?

    I'm not sure where people get the idea that Thirdbase is a problem.

    Frazier is at 744 for the year.
    NL average 729
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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  17. #29
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    Re: Is the offense in serious trouble?

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    I'm not sure where people get the idea that Thirdbase is a problem.

    Frazier is at 744 for the year.
    NL average 729
    Then the rest of the NL is a real problem this year?

    Imagine how much better Frazier could be if he learned to recognize breaking balls out of the strike zone, some clearly way out of the strike zone..better.

  18. #30
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Is the offense in serious trouble?

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    I have not soured on Hamilton at all. He's only 22 and I think his numbers will end up better than they are at in AAA.

    However, a player with a .650 OPS in AAA isn't the answer to any question right now.
    Unless the question is: better option than Derrick Robinson?

    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda


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