My Realistic Plan For the Offseason & 2014

[Benihana]

1. Sign Mat Latos longterm. Something like 5 years $100MM should do it.

2. Gauge Homer Bailey's willingness to extend. If he'll do it, do it (but no more than four years). If not:

3. Trade Homer Bailey, Neftali Soto, Donald Lutz and Yorman Rodriguez to Texas for Jurickson Profar. Replace Bailey in the rotation with Tony Cingrani.

4. Make Bronson Arroyo a qualifying offer. If he takes it, good. If he doesn't, keep the first round pick and (assuming the Bailey trade goes through) move Chapman to the rotation. Let Marshall and Broxton handle the back end of the bullpen, but fast track Michael Lorenzen as a reliever- he could become the closer by the All-Star Break. If Bailey agrees to extend or the trade doesn't go through, keep Chapman at closer and replace Arroyo in the rotation with Cingrani.

5. Let Sharky Rogers and Dan Corcino battle it out in ST for the long reliever/spot starter role.

6. Make Shin Soo-Choo a qualifying offer. Be happy with three first round picks. Four if the Reds win the competitive balance pick. Use them to stockpile pitching and middle infielders. Maybe a college catcher as well.

7. Platoon Ryan Ludwick and Xavier Paul in LF. You'll probably need one or both of them to be the stopgap for most or all of 2015 until Winker or Ervin is ready to takeover LF. Maybe not if Lutz and/or Rodriguez don't get traded in the Bailey/Profar deal.

8. Start Billy Hamilton in CF on Opening Day, and don't look back unless his OBP falls below .250 after 200 PA.

9. If the Bailey trade does not go through (ie Reds can't get Profar); trade Ryan Hanigan to the Rays for Hak Ju-Lee or Tim Beckham, and allow them to challenge Cozart for the starting SS job in Spring Training. Start Mesoraco 5 days a week and bring up Tucker Barnhart to be his backup. If the Bailey/Profar trade does go through, let Hanigan play out the last year of his contract and Barnhart to get one more year of AAA seasoning.

[Big Klu]

Regarding #4, I believe that Aroldis Chapman does not want to be a starter and will actively oppose such a move.

[Benihana]

Regarding #4, I believe that Aroldis Chapman does not want to be a starter and will actively oppose such a move.

I think it's unlikely that it would come to that. I think more likely Arroyo accepts the qualifying offer or the Reds decide to hang onto Bailey once Arroyo departs. If both pitchers leave the team, I think it's worth giving it (Chapman starting) a shot. I seriously doubt he really puts his foot down, especially in that scenario where the team really needs him.

[Norm Chortleton]

Regarding #4, I believe that Aroldis Chapman does not want to be a starter and will actively oppose such a move.

If Chapman is asked to try the rotation again and refuses, he can be someone else's closer.

[gilpdawg]

No way they would be able to get Profar. They will trade Andrus or Kinsler first.

[joshua]

I don't think they're any way Barnhart is ready for the majors next year. But Walt has had a history here of picking up productive catchers. Navarro and Hernandez were both excellent while they played here.

Corcino has to get his velocity back and fix some other issues before you consider him a spot in the bullpen. I'd rather work on him getting back to form and then see what we can do with him then. He's not the prospect now that he was last year.

Also Lorenzen has thrown one inning. It's way too early to be projecting him as closer by this time next season.

As far as qualifying offers to Choo and Bronson, that's a no-brainer...but personally I'd offer Bronson a bit more than that. Chapman won't be leaving the pen. Neither he or Dusty want him anywhere else. So if Bailey does get traded, Cingrani takes his place and Bronson walks we suddenly find ourselves in need of another starter. Stephenson isn't ready. Corcino isn't remotely ready...so now we are playing the FA market to find a back of the rotation starter against other more lucrative teams or find a reclamation project we pray works out. I'm not a fan of playing the odds on that when we've got a good thing going. We are going to be spending enough time praying Cueto can stay healthy, the whole bullpen isn't triaged and that SS, LF, C and 3B can produce... not to mention replacing Choo's production. The rotation is the foundation of this team and 200+ innings of reliable veteran junkball goodness is the glue...I'd give Bronson a couple of years as long as his asking price to stay is reasonable. No reason to throw him out when, if Bailey is moved like you want, we're one lat pull away from digging through the waiver wire for rotation pieces.

[RadfordVA]

1. Reds should not be in the business of giving 100 million dollar contracts to pitchers. How many have actually worked out? If it doesn't, Reds would be hard pressed to recover from that mistake. Get what you can from young pitchers and develop the next ones.

[lidspinner]

1. Reds should not be in the business of giving 100 million dollar contracts to pitchers. How many have actually worked out? If it doesn't, Reds would be hard pressed to recover from that mistake. Get what you can from young pitchers and develop the next ones.

I am a big fan of this....now, I am also of the opinion that you cannot always count on young pithcers so you need a good mixture of both on your staff....but I agree that you need to probably unload Mat Latos before he becomes the next big pitcher to hit the market....get what you can get for him in terms of top level talent and hope it pans out....the flipside is the qualifying offer and getting the draft pick and hoping it pans out....you have to weigh the options but I agree the Reds should NEVER be giving out huge contracts to pitchers.....1 injury and we cannot recover from that....having Votto on payroll is going to be tough enough to deal with but we cannot have 2 guys eating up a ton of space. Teams are doing it every year so its not like its rocket science to keep the revolving door moving, it just takes some creativity and a good front office to do whats in the best interest of the team and not sell out for 1-2 years of baseball like the Brewers did.

[reds44]

I would like to win the World Series before focusing on 2014.

But that's just me.

[swaisuc]

I would like to win the World Series before focusing on 2014.

But that's just me.

100% with you, but notice that all of these are ideas for the offseason. None of them affect our ability to win in 2013. It's the threads talking about trading a player this month that really confuse me.

[dsmith421]

I would like to win the World Series before focusing on 2014.

But that's just me.

I'd like a magical unicorn named Ryan Ludwick to descend from the sky and immediately fix the offense too. I think we're both going to be disappointed.

[Kc61]

I would like to win the World Series before focusing on 2014.

But that's just me.

Good luck with that.

If the Reds don't win big this season, then the off-season needs to be devoted to obtaining a major right handed cleanup hitter who can team with Votto and Bruce for the next several years. A true, good hitter, not the usual Reds swing at everything, low BA righty hitter.

Trade bait would probably be a starting pitcher, most likely Bailey but not necessarily. This would be a major deal for a really good hitter. Stanton is the prototype but could be someone else obviously.

Reds may have to find a taker for Ludwick if the new guy is a left fielder. So be it.

There are many ways to go with other moves. But the time has come to solidify the middle of the order for a number of years.

[tomnuetten]

I still believe that chapman would be a lot worse as starter than he is out of the bullpen...

I don´t believe that the last 3 outs are more difficult than pitching the 8th (in fact most times the 8th is harder because you´ll pitch against the top of the order more often)...

but his best pitch wouldn´t be as effective if he throws it 80-90 times a game => the velocity would be down

=> I don´t like the idea of trading bailey and losing arroyo in FA...


I agree with most of your other points.. but I don´t get why so many want to see an upgrade at ss and not at 3rd or C...

Cozart is not the biggest offensive weapon, but he´s not bad and his d is great...

on 3rd we´re not that good at the moment and our catchers can´t swing the bat (hanigan´s d is pretty good though)

[Ironman92]

1. Sign Mat Latos longterm. Something like 5 years $100MM should do it.

2. Gauge Homer Bailey's willingness to extend. If he'll do it, do it (but no more than four years). If not:

3. Trade Homer Bailey, Neftali Soto, Donald Lutz and Yorman Rodriguez to Texas for Jurickson Profar. Replace Bailey in the rotation with Tony Cingrani.

4. Make Bronson Arroyo a qualifying offer. If he takes it, good. If he doesn't, keep the first round pick and (assuming the Bailey trade goes through) move Chapman to the rotation. Let Marshall and Broxton handle the back end of the bullpen, but fast track Michael Lorenzen as a reliever- he could become the closer by the All-Star Break. If Bailey agrees to extend or the trade doesn't go through, keep Chapman at closer and replace Arroyo in the rotation with Cingrani.

5. Let Sharky Rogers and Dan Corcino battle it out in ST for the long reliever/spot starter role.

6. Make Shin Soo-Choo a qualifying offer. Be happy with three first round picks. Four if the Reds win the competitive balance pick. Use them to stockpile pitching and middle infielders. Maybe a college catcher as well.

7. Platoon Ryan Ludwick and Xavier Paul in LF. You'll probably need one or both of them to be the stopgap for most or all of 2015 until Winker or Ervin is ready to takeover LF. Maybe not if Lutz and/or Rodriguez don't get traded in the Bailey/Profar deal.

8. Start Billy Hamilton in CF on Opening Day, and don't look back unless his OBP falls below .250 after 200 PA.

9. If the Bailey trade does not go through (ie Reds can't get Profar); trade Ryan Hanigan to the Rays for Hak Ju-Lee or Tim Beckham, and allow them to challenge Cozart for the starting SS job in Spring Training. Start Mesoraco 5 days a week and bring up Tucker Barnhart to be his backup. If the Bailey/Profar trade does go through, let Hanigan play out the last year of his contract and Barnhart to get one more year of AAA seasoning.

On #8 if his OB% drops below .250 just bat him 2nd.

[nate1213]

1. Reds should not be in the business of giving 100 million dollar contracts to pitchers. How many have actually worked out? If it doesn't, Reds would be hard pressed to recover from that mistake. Get what you can from young pitchers and develop the next ones.

You have to have one constant in your rotation though don't you? Latos would be perfect since he is only 24 if I remember correctly. One decent sized contract to a pitcher with the potential to be a top pitcher in the NL (hell, he already is one) is not that bad. I am in no way against trading Homer, Cueto, and Chapman. I actually believe one of the first two will be traded in the next year and a half, and I would actively look to trade Chapman this offseason. We can get more value from a potential middle of the order right handed bat with Chapman in a deal than having Chapman pitching for three outs.