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Thread: Reds Stats Through 90 Games, 2013

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    Reds Stats Through 90 Games, 2013

    Reds went 5-5 now 5 games out (were 4.5 last time) but Cards now in first place having leapfrogged over Pirates. Reds trail second place Bucs by 3.5 now. Reds RS/RA +57 improved from +43 last time. Reds 30-16 at home, 20-24 on road. Cards ten games over .500 on road, Bucs five over .500 on road. Reds total record 50-40.

    Reds 14-16 over last thirty games, 8-12 over last twenty. Reds 22-18 against NL Central, both Cards and Pirates are ten games over .500 against NL teams. Reds pythag W-L record now 51-39, so actual record slightly worse. In this stretch, Cueto DL'd, Ondrusek returned. Assorted non-DL injuries, including both catchers, Hanigan and Mes. Votto and Phillips to start in ASG, Chapman selected too.

    Offense - Reds team OPS now .719, just slightly below last time. Team OPS has declined since fifty game mark from .735. Reds team OPS fourth best in NL. Reds team BA, .249, ninth best in NL and below league average .252. Reds team OBP of .325 is third best in league, since 50 game mark has declined from .335. Reds SLG was .400 at fifty game mark, now .394 which is league's seventh best and is league average. Reds with 388 runs total, fourth most in NL.

    Reds wOBA is .313, fourth in the NL. Reds wRC+ is 95, eighth best in the NL. Reds ISO power is .145 seventh best in NL. Reds team walk rate (offense) is highest in NL, 9.1%, K rate is sixth highest in NL, an even 20%. Reds with 26 steals, second lowest in NL, Cards lowest.

    Reds only position player with a BA over .271 is Joey Votto at .318. Next highest is Choo at .271, everyone else below .270. wRC+, Fangraphs composite offensive stat, with 100 nominally at league average, shows Votto 155, Choo 142, Bruce 118, Frazier 104. Everyone else below 100. Reds above .750 OPS are Votto .933, Choo .861, Bruce .815. Nobody else.

    Last fourteen days, hottest batters have been Heisey at 1.366 OPS, Hannahan 1.084, Hanigan .902, Izturis .778, all over limited at bats. Of regulars, in that stretch Choo .739, Votto .736, Frazier .697, Phillips .621, Bruce .515, Paul .412, Robinson .408, Cozart .382. Over last thirty day stretch, Heisey at 1.335, Izturis at 1.000 (limited at bats), Votto .878, Bruce .854, Frazier .738, Choo .708, Cozart .603, Phillips .547, Paul .533.

    Cozart, who leads RedsZone in ink this year (unofficially), with .233 BA and .623 OPS includes .261 OBP and .362 SLG. Last year had .246 BA, .687 OPS, .288 OBP, .399 SLG. Line drive rate has declined from 20% to 16.3%, GB rate is up from 41.7% to 47.1%. K Rate is lower this year, was 18.8% now 15.4%. Walk rate was low 5.2% last year, this year lower at 3.8%. In 357 PAs, Zack has 13 BBs. Mesoraco has improved in BA (.212 to .242) and OPS (.640 to .681) with steady K rate and improved BB rate (10.6%). SLG is .363. Frazier ground ball rate up from 32.9% to 45.5% with declines in line drive rate and fly ball rate.

    Pitching - Last time team ERA was 3.54 with 3.37 for starters and 3.88 for relievers. Now, Reds team ERA is 3.41 with 3.36 for starters and 3.52 for relievers. So huge improvement for bullpen.

    Pen now with seventh best ERA among NL pens, 71% save rate (fourth best in NL), 1.24 WHIP tied with Cards for fifth-sixth in NL. Pen BAA is .219, third best in NL behind Braves and Cards. Pen has allowed 26 homers, seventh fewest in league, pen K rate tops in NL with 9.61, pen has walked 110 second most in NL behind Marlins. Reds pen W-L record is 16-16; Pirates 19-11; Cards 7-11; Braves (Reds next opponent) 17-7 pen W-L record.

    Reds team FIP is 3.67 fourth best in NL about same as last time, xFIP is 3.69 second best to Cards in NL. Reds pitching WAR is 10.1 (Fangraphs) Cards and Rockies are only teams with higher. Past 30 days, Reds team with 3.15 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 3.71 xFIP - and a 3.5 pitching WAR which is best in NL for that period and fourth best in MLB.

    Bailey threw second no-hitter in this stretch v. Giants. Bailey with 2.9 WAR leads Latos at 2.8. Leake third at 1.5. Among relievers, Chapman with 2.50 ERA, 2.43 FIP, 2.52 xFIP. Lecure 2.10 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 4.00 xFIP. Simon 2.93 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 4.01 xFIP. Hoover 3.79 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 4.01 xFIP. Hoover now 2-5 W-L record.

    Over past thirty days, Hoover with 0.4 WAR third among all Reds pitchers, 12.71 K rate, 3.97 BB rate, 100% LOB rate, 0.00 ERA in 11.1 innings. Also over last thirty days, Parra with 9.00 K rate, 2.25 BB rate, 0.00 ERA, 100% LOB rate. 12 innings pitched.

    Fielding - Reds team UZR rating is 15.0 tied for third-fourth with Pirates. Dbacks and Giants higher. Reds UZR/150 1.9 is fifth highest in NL. Reds with 41 errors, third fewest in NL. Votto with 10 errors, Cozart 7, Phillips 6, Mesoraco 4, Frazier 4. Reds with 65 DPs made, fewest in NL. Reds have fewest "fielding errors" in league at 18, fifth fewest throwing errors at 22. One error is unaccounted for.
    Last edited by Kc61; 07-10-2013 at 01:24 PM.

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    Re: Reds Stats Through 90 Games, 2013

    That was a lot of info? Good work!.....nothing too surprising though.

    The team's OPS drop since the last time is significant.

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    Re: Reds Stats Through 90 Games, 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    That was a lot of info? Good work!.....nothing too surprising though.

    The team's OPS drop since the last time is significant.
    Thanks, actually the OPS drop off is over the last forty games. Since last time the drop off is small. But the drop off has been pretty steady for some time now.

    When you look at all this, the pitching is really good, pen is improved, the defense is good, the hitting of Votto, Bruce and Choo is good.

    It's the hitting of the other regulars -- everyone other than those three guys. Really all of them. Different reasons, some injuries, some too many grounders, maybe Phillips never recovered from HBP, Cozart never walks, Mes no power, Frazier and Cozart grounders neutralize their power.

    Very obvious what the issue has been for some time now.

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    Re: Reds Stats Through 90 Games, 2013

    Thanks for compiling all this info!

    While the focus for many people had been on trading for some new arms for the bullpen, this team's inconsistent, unreliable offense has been the real problem this year, last year, and for I don't know how many years before that.

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    Re: Reds Stats Through 90 Games, 2013

    The top 4 players in OPS over the last 14 days tells you all you need to know about the offense as of late.

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    Re: Reds Stats Through 90 Games, 2013

    Only the Giants have scored fewer runs than the Reds (126) since June 1st.

    By comparison the Cardinals lead with 194.

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    Re: Reds Stats Through 90 Games, 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Thanks, actually the OPS drop off is over the last forty games. Since last time the drop off is small. But the drop off has been pretty steady for some time now.

    When you look at all this, the pitching is really good, pen is improved, the defense is good, the hitting of Votto, Bruce and Choo is good.

    It's the hitting of the other regulars -- everyone other than those three guys. Really all of them. Different reasons, some injuries, some too many grounders, maybe Phillips never recovered from HBP, Cozart never walks, Mes no power, Frazier and Cozart grounders neutralize their power.

    Very obvious what the issue has been for some time now.
    Great post and info. I missed the last one of these you did, so thanks for the historical comparisons as well. The answer is rather obvious in these numbers, particularly when you get past the big 3-4's recent splits. The group of Cozart, Frazier, Heisey/Robinson/Paul, Hanny/Mes are what they are....average hitters at best who struggle to even provide a consistent role in the lineup. As frustrating as the recent output has been, it probably shouldn't be a huge surprise to anyone.
    Originally Posted by nate
    Chapman can be downright pornographic at times.

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    Re: Reds Stats Through 90 Games, 2013

    http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/201...tter-not-good/

    Then Baker added something interesting: “We’re not scoring runs in the whole system,” he said. “It’s not just here, it’s everywhere.”

    That tells you the Reds discussed getting help from the minors. The Reds have scored three runs or fewer in 10 of 13 games. They are hitting .163 (29-for-178) with runners in scoring position over their last 23 games. The top five hitters in their lineup are a combined 6-for-36 (.167) in the two games here.

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    Re: Reds Stats Through 90 Games, 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by OldXOhio View Post
    Great post and info. I missed the last one of these you did, so thanks for the historical comparisons as well. The answer is rather obvious in these numbers, particularly when you get past the big 3-4's recent splits. The group of Cozart, Frazier, Heisey/Robinson/Paul, Hanny/Mes are what they are....average hitters at best who struggle to even provide a consistent role in the lineup. As frustrating as the recent output has been, it probably shouldn't be a huge surprise to anyone.
    Frazier's average. Everyone else you mention is well below average.

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    Re: Reds Stats Through 90 Games, 2013

    At some point the Reds are going to have to trade some of their pitching for offense. Maybe MLB pitching or maybe prospects.

    The team can't go into next season hoping that all these position players turn it around. At least one more potent bat needs to be obtained, as well as figuring out lead off with Choo a free agent and Billy H perhaps not ready.

    I guess they could just say, well, Ludwick will be healthy. We all know the questions are deeper.

    Reds need one potent righty bat, need to figure out lead off, and need some improvement from C and SS offensively.
    Last edited by Kc61; 07-10-2013 at 01:37 PM.

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    Potential Lunch Winner Dom Heffner's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Stats Through 90 Games, 2013

    They can't hit on the road...unless that changes, this is all moot. Twenty something road games coming up....
    If you're watchin' a parade, make sure you stand in one spot, don't follow it, it never changes. And if the parade is boring, run in the opposite direction, you will fast-foward the parade. --Mitch Hedberg

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    Re: Reds Stats Through 90 Games, 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by Dom Heffner View Post
    They can't hit on the road...unless that changes, this is all moot. Twenty something road games coming up....
    Reds OPS on the road is .692, tenth best in league.
    Reds OPS at home is .745, sixth best in league.

    So it's ok at home, not great, and subpar on the road, yes.

    Pitching is 3.19 ERA at home, fourth best in league.
    Pitching is 3.66 ERA on road, fourth best in league.

    Interesting that offense on road is mostly a factor of low SLG -- .371. Only four teams worse. Todd Frazier SLG on the road is .283. Six doubles two homers.
    At home SLG is sixth best, .416.

    Reds actually with a good OBP on road, .321, third highest in league.
    Last edited by Kc61; 07-10-2013 at 01:56 PM.

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    I thought you'd be bigger OldXOhio's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Stats Through 90 Games, 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Frazier's average. Everyone else you mention is well below average.
    Agreed. I was being too nice.
    Originally Posted by nate
    Chapman can be downright pornographic at times.

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    Re: Reds Stats Through 90 Games, 2013

    I looked at all of baseball.

    They hit .240 on the road, 24th best...they slug .371, 25th best...

    It's a problem.
    If you're watchin' a parade, make sure you stand in one spot, don't follow it, it never changes. And if the parade is boring, run in the opposite direction, you will fast-foward the parade. --Mitch Hedberg

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    I thought you'd be bigger OldXOhio's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Stats Through 90 Games, 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    At some point the Reds are going to have to trade some of their pitching for offense.
    Even as recently as five years ago, did you ever think you'd make this statement?
    Originally Posted by nate
    Chapman can be downright pornographic at times.

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