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Thread: Dusty plans to stick with Cozart in the No. 2 spot

  1. #151
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    Re: Dusty plans to stick with Cozart in the No. 2 spot

    Quote Originally Posted by dubc47834 View Post
    This is the most asinine post I have seen in a long time. How can you possibly sit there and say that neither Dusty nor management don't care. Do you not remember Reds management we had before and how poorly this ball club was ran? Why would Dusty do stuff that he knows is bad for this team, that's not good just security. I know i support Dusty quit a bit, but I also don't agree with Cozart always hitting second. To say Dusty doesn't care is just blind hatred for the man!
    Asinine is defending Dusty's blindness, stupidity and/or stubbornness. And while there was no question mark, I think the bolded is a great question. I don't hate the man, he's just not much of a manager on game day, and never has been.

    Bum

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  3. #152
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty plans to stick with Cozart in the No. 2 spot

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    111 more plate appearances over the course of the season between hitting second and hitting 8th.

    Do you really think it doesn't make a difference?
    Not as big of a difference as you might think.
    I'm going to use these numbers, if you have better ones, let me know

    http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2...rances-by.html

    Number of plate appearances for each lineup position
    Code:
    1st - 763
    2nd - 746
    3rd - 728
    4th - 711
    5th - 696
    6th - 681
    7th - 662
    8th - 643
    9th - 622
    Cozart's OBP today: 261

    If you move Fraiser (333 obp) from #6 to #2, that's 65 more AB's for Frasier at Cozart's expense. The OBP delta is 0.072, so hypothetically Fraiser gets on base 4.68 more times over the course of the season. That projects to less than 1/2 run over the season.

    Now, we don't want Cozart to stay in the #6 hole, we want him in the #8 hole.
    To simplify things, let's assume the LF stays in the #7 hole. Let's also assume Mesearaco is in the #8 hole currently and gets moved to the #6 hole. Cozart slips into the #8 hole.
    So Mes gets 38 more at bats at Cozarts expense. Mes is at 310 OBP. The OBP delta is 0.049 That means Mes is projected to get on base 1.86 more times.

    So all this shuffling based on OBP and projected plate appearances means the Reds in theory would gain 4.68 + 1.86 = 6.54 base runners over the course of the season. That doesn't even project to an additional run (if I recall correctly, but please correct me if I am wrong).. In any event, is 6 extra base runners over the course worth all this complaining? Heck, I even left Hannigan's bad OBP to make the analysis a "Best case" scenerio.

    The problem is not the lineup. The problem is that C, SS, and LF are struggling. No matter what order you run them out in, the offense will sputter at times.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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  5. #153
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    Re: Dusty plans to stick with Cozart in the No. 2 spot

    It makes very little sense to bat Frazier 2nd. The best guy suited to bat there is Phillips.

    The rest of the issue with the lineup was created when Jockety/Castellini decided to go with Ludwick as the cleanup guy for 2 years...just wishful thinking regardless of whether he was healthy or not. The Reds need a true power bat from the right side, not some more wishful thinking. Of course they do have a potential power bat in Mesoraco, but since his playing time is inconsistent at best, how would we know. Besides we have Hanigan...and the catcher has to bat 8th so that he bats in front of the pitcher...perfect spot for a young power hitter...nevermind...

    Bum
    Last edited by Bumstead; 07-12-2013 at 04:28 PM.

  6. #154
    Member smixsell's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty plans to stick with Cozart in the No. 2 spot

    Quote Originally Posted by NebraskaRed View Post
    Cozart isn't batting 2nd today. Your theory is invalid.
    What's the lineup then?

  7. #155
    13 Belongs in Cooperstown Captain13's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty plans to stick with Cozart in the No. 2 spot

    Choo 8
    Robinson 7
    Votto 3
    Phillips 4
    Bruce 9
    Frazier 5
    Cozart 6
    Mesoraco 2
    Arroyo RHP
    What if this is as good as it gets?

  8. #156
    Member smixsell's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty plans to stick with Cozart in the No. 2 spot

    Quote Originally Posted by Captain13 View Post
    Choo 8
    Robinson 7
    Votto 3
    Phillips 4
    Bruce 9
    Frazier 5
    Cozart 6
    Mesoraco 2
    Arroyo RHP
    Thanks. Anybody hear anything new about Ludwick's progress?

    Never mind I dug something up myself:

    http://sports.yahoo.com/news/ryan-lu...174506236.html
    Last edited by smixsell; 07-12-2013 at 04:42 PM.

  9. #157
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    Re: Dusty plans to stick with Cozart in the No. 2 spot

    Quote Originally Posted by Mutaman View Post
    Was it worth the $3.50?
    Pretty sure I saw him in 1972 with Sly and the Family Stone.
    Sly played for about 30 minutes before they drug him off, this was after about a 2 or 3 hour wait. And I think I paid $8.00, but things were a little "Hazy" back then...

  10. #158
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty plans to stick with Cozart in the No. 2 spot

    Cozy batting 7th puts him about 65% of the time batting down in the order now.

    /dustymath

    What's crazy is that Dusty finally spoke of it after a month of wanting him down in the order, says something mathematically ridiculous and then NOW he has him 7th. It's like he was completely unaware of the stats.

  11. #159
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty plans to stick with Cozart in the No. 2 spot

    Quote Originally Posted by Bumstead View Post
    It makes very little sense to bat Frazier 2nd. The best guy suited to bat there is Phillips.

    The rest of the issue with the lineup was created when Jockety/Castellini decided to go with Ludwick as the cleanup guy for 2 years...just wishful thinking regardless of whether he was healthy or not. The Reds need a true power bat from the right side, not some more wishful thinking. Of course they do have a potential power bat in Mesoraco, but since his playing time is inconsistent at best, how would we know. Besides we have Hanigan...and the catcher has to bat 8th so that he bats in front of the pitcher...perfect spot for a young power hitter...nevermind...

    Bum
    Well, we can redo the above math for Phillips hitting 2nd (or any other combination) and you will see that the net gain for juggling player's batting order really doesn't make a difference.

    Where should Mez hit in the lineup? Hard to say. Maybe Dusty feels there's less pressure in the #8 hole for Mes. Maybe Dusty feels Mes isn't hitting well enough to disrupt someone else's spot in the batting order. Dusty values stablity in the lineup. Maybe that's faulty, but it's not totally illogical.
    I can guarantee that if Mez becomes a 750 OPS player (which I think he can achieve), he will get moved up in the lineup.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  12. #160
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    Re: Dusty plans to stick with Cozart in the No. 2 spot

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Well, we can redo the above math for Phillips hitting 2nd (or any other combination) and you will see that the net gain for juggling player's batting order really doesn't make a difference.

    Where should Mez hit in the lineup? Hard to say. Maybe Dusty feels there's less pressure in the #8 hole for Mes. Maybe Dusty feels Mes isn't hitting well enough to disrupt someone else's spot in the batting order. Dusty values stablity in the lineup. Maybe that's faulty, but it's not totally illogical.
    I can guarantee that if Mez becomes a 750 OPS player (which I think he can achieve), he will get moved up in the lineup.
    Can you now? Piece of evidence #1: Cozart bats 2nd with a .261 OBP for 63 games to date and tonight bats 7th, ahead of Mes who has a .310 OBP...yeah, guarantees...

    You can do your math however you choose to make whatever point you want. It really doesn't have to play out that way. I guess since your math says it makes only a marginal difference then every team should just use their least efficient lineup. Great argument. At least Dusty has a constituent...

    Bum

  13. #161
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    Re: Dusty plans to stick with Cozart in the No. 2 spot

    I turned on MLB Network today and Kenny and Reynolds were arguing this same topic. Reynolds says leaving Cozart in the 2 hole is a genius move because Cozart knows how to take pitches and he can move Choo over with sac bunts. Kenny was pointing out that Cozart's slash line is far below the league average.

    They also had Twitter votes to see who agreed and disagreed with Dusty's decision and it was 67% for and 33% against.

    What I find unbelievable is Reynolds claims himself to be an expert yet he is basing a lot of his opinion on last night's game where Cozart wasn't as bad as normal.

    I can see Dusty's point where the 2 hole is where Cozart has hit better than any other spot, but my god when his best is the team's worst how can you justify putting him in such a crucial spot? Our 8th spot is already bad from the catcher and the 7th spot is inconsistent from the LF platoon, I just do not understand it. I know tonight that Dusty has switched things up, but if it doesn't pan out then he will have backing to keep Cozart there.
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  14. #162
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    Re: Dusty plans to stick with Cozart in the No. 2 spot

    Quote Originally Posted by BungleBengals View Post
    I turned on MLB Network today and Kenny and Reynolds were arguing this same topic. Reynolds says leaving Cozart in the 2 hole is a genius move because Cozart knows how to take pitches and he can move Choo over with sac bunts. Kenny was pointing out that Cozart's slash line is far below the league average.

    They also had Twitter votes to see who agreed and disagreed with Dusty's decision and it was 67% for and 33% against.

    What I find unbelievable is Reynolds claims himself to be an expert yet he is basing a lot of his opinion on last night's game where Cozart wasn't as bad as normal.

    I can see Dusty's point where the 2 hole is where Cozart has hit better than any other spot, but my god when his best is the team's worst how can you justify putting him in such a crucial spot? Our 8th spot is already bad from the catcher and the 7th spot is inconsistent from the LF platoon, I just do not understand it. I know tonight that Dusty has switched things up, but if it doesn't pan out then he will have backing to keep Cozart there.
    I saw this. Kenny was arguing that it was better to have a big bat hit 2nd, like Beltran, Bautista, etc. instead of a small ball guy. Reynolds said Dusty is
    managing 80's style, with the 2nd place hitter bunting a lot.
    That said, Cozart is not the small ball guy I would put there, because he is a dead pull hitter. I can't remember the last hit he got to right field. A #2 hitter, 80's style, has to be able to hit behind the runner. Hit and runs, etc.
    Cozart is not that guy, and we don't have anyone with those skills.

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  16. #163
    I don't want to grow up Red Raindog's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty plans to stick with Cozart in the No. 2 spot

    I think BP lives for those over the shoulder catches --- I sure like seeing them

    oops - wrong thread!
    Last edited by Red Raindog; 07-12-2013 at 08:58 PM.
    The older I get - the better I was

    and yes - I hate the Cardinals (Reds fan since 1958)

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  18. #164
    Pimpin...literally!!! dubc47834's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty plans to stick with Cozart in the No. 2 spot

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    If Dusty doesn't know that Cozart batting 2nd is bad for the team, that is just as big of a problem as not caring that it is bad for the team.
    Maybe he does know that and just thinks it's his only option. I have no idea, but to say he doesn't care I completely disagree with!

  19. #165
    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty plans to stick with Cozart in the No. 2 spot

    Frazier and his .332 OBP should be batting #2
    Sabermetrics can be boiled down to this simple truism: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

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