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Thread: Dusty plans to stick with Cozart in the No. 2 spot

  1. #181
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty plans to stick with Cozart in the No. 2 spot

    Quote Originally Posted by Old NDN View Post
    Doug, how bad of a SS is/was Hamilton? I never saw him play and wondered if he was moved to fill a "future need" or simply an inferior defender. I know he's not ready offensively. But how much worse than Cozart could he be? At least he offers a couple of things absent in Cozart's game: speed and an ability to bunt.
    He was awfully bad at shortstop. Great range. Iffy hands and throwing problems. At times he struggled making the routine play. He was moved because he needed a ton of time at shortstop to be acceptable and in center he could help quicker. Either way though, he can't hit at this point so it doesn't matter.

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  3. #182
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty plans to stick with Cozart in the No. 2 spot

    Not sure if everyone saw Dave Cameron's take on this matter. It's a pretty good read and he thinks Frazier might be the best option.

    Here are some choice excerpts:

    I know that Dusty Baker is never going to be a big fan of FanGraphs, or our way of thinking about baseball, but hitting Todd Frazier in the #2 spot instead of Zack Cozart isn’t that radical of a suggestion. You’re still using a right-handed hitter to break up the lefties. You’re still putting a guy near the top of the line-up who isn’t a primary run producer. He’s not slow, so he’s not going to “clog the bases”. He draws walks, which Baker clearly sees as valuable from his leadoff hitter, since that is Shin-Soo Choo‘s primary skill.
    In the grand scheme of things, this isn’t the end of the world. Batting order doesn’t make that big of a difference. The Reds can make the playoffs with Zack Cozart hitting second. But, really, for a team in the playoff race, they should be taking advantage of every opportunity they can find to improve their chances of winning, however small those improvements might be. I get that hitting Votto second is too radical of an idea for Baker, but hitting Frazier second isn’t quite as crazy sounding, and it would make them better too.
    Last edited by RedEye; 07-13-2013 at 11:07 PM.

  4. #183
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    Re: Dusty plans to stick with Cozart in the No. 2 spot

    I know I have said this many times, but I think Cozart moves to 7th or 8th and Votto and the rest of the lineup moves up one spot.

    I was listening to WLW yesterday morning and Ken Broo had some guy from Boston on the phone who said that this move makes sense. However, he provided more adjustments that would improve run production. He suggested that Dusty, who is stuck in the 80's managerial mindset, take some notes after future HOF Tony LaRussa. This guy said that if/when Dusty moves Votto to 2 hole, then Dusty should also look at batting the pitcher 8th and the LF 9th. This way when the lineup turns over in the middle of an inning then there is a possibility for Choo and Votto to advance and score runners. I thought this would be a very interesting move. I know it is unlikely and I would be content with Votto simply moving to the 2 hole, but I also like what Dusty has done the last 3 games with Robinson and Heisey hitting higher up in the lineup and Cozart down.
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  5. #184
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty plans to stick with Cozart in the No. 2 spot

    How many times has Cozart hit 2nd since these quotes? Once? Just because Dusty tries to build up a guy in the media doesn't mean he's an idiot.
    "The guy I think could be really good in center is Adam Dunn. If someone asked me if Dunn could be a center fielder for the next 10 years, if he started working on it, no one could explain to me why he couldn’t do it." - Brad Kullman

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  7. #185
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    Re: Dusty plans to stick with Cozart in the No. 2 spot

    Quote Originally Posted by Bumstead View Post
    Can you now? Piece of evidence #1: Cozart bats 2nd with a .261 OBP for 63 games to date and tonight bats 7th, ahead of Mes who has a .310 OBP...yeah, guarantees...

    You can do your math however you choose to make whatever point you want. It really doesn't have to play out that way. I guess since your math says it makes only a marginal difference then every team should just use their least efficient lineup. Great argument. At least Dusty has a constituent...

    Bum
    Again, there's more to a lineup than ordering the players based on OBP or a single stat.
    Not much of a difference if Mez/Cozart bats #7/#8..
    Dusty feels there's value in stablity in the lineup (no way to know if that's true or not).. Thus, Cozart batting 7th every night instead of moving around based on whoever the catcher is might be more valuable than the two extra hypothetical baserunners over the course of the entire season.

    The math shows that shuffling the lineup has minimal impact. Even the lineup simulators don't show a significant gain of runs scored based on their "optimal lineup".. the simulators have enough assumptions built in to question their results.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  8. #186
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    Re: Dusty plans to stick with Cozart in the No. 2 spot

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Not sure if everyone saw Dave Cameron's take on this matter. It's a pretty good read and he thinks Frazier might be the best option.

    Here are some choice excerpts:
    The problem with hitting Fraiser #2, is now there's a weak hitter behind Bruce, who will be pitched around.

    Without Fraiser, we're counting on Cozart or the LF guy to "protect" Bruce.. not going to work.

    Frasier is perfect for the #6 hole.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  9. #187
    A Dude in the Bushes RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Dusty plans to stick with Cozart in the No. 2 spot

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    The problem with hitting Fraiser #2, is now there's a weak hitter behind Bruce, who will be pitched around.

    Without Fraiser, we're counting on Cozart or the LF guy to "protect" Bruce.. not going to work.

    Frasier is perfect for the #6 hole.
    It is pretty simply in my opinion. This teams needs 1 more legit bat. Imagine how much better this team would be sitting with a healthy Ryan Ludwick all year? Totally different team in my opinion. Such is baseball/life.

  10. #188
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty plans to stick with Cozart in the No. 2 spot

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    It is pretty simply in my opinion. This teams needs 1 more legit bat. Imagine how much better this team would be sitting with a healthy Ryan Ludwick all year? Totally different team in my opinion. Such is baseball/life.
    Yea, I agree with that.. Ludwick's loss was huge.
    Hopefully we can get an OF at the trade deadline.
    Although Heisey has been playing well since he came off the DL.
    (Point being, if we do get an OF at the deadline, it's probably not an 850 OPS guy, it's probably an averagish guy)
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  11. #189
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    Re: Dusty plans to stick with Cozart in the No. 2 spot

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    How many times has Cozart hit 2nd since these quotes? Once? Just because Dusty tries to build up a guy in the media doesn't mean he's an idiot.
    Question becomes why make the quote then. You tell the world that Cozart is your guy in that spot and then the very next game he changes his plan.

    Here's what he should have said:

    "We are reviewing our options. Zach is a big part of our team now and for the future."

    I applaud Dusty moving him down, but he needs some media help.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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  13. #190
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    Re: Dusty plans to stick with Cozart in the No. 2 spot

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Question becomes why make the quote then. You tell the world that Cozart is your guy in that spot and then the very next game he changes his plan.

    Here's what he should have said:

    "We are reviewing our options. Zach is a big part of our team now and for the future."

    I applaud Dusty moving him down, but he needs some media help.
    Innocuous as it looks at first glance, "reviewing our options" is a pretty strong code phrase. It's an admission they're thinking about it, which creates the fan expectation they're going to do it, which is just going to fan the flames until the situation is somehow resolved. It's easier to put the kibosh on the idea and then make the move on their own timetable.

    No, he knew exactly what he was doing, which was consistent with how he and Walt have done things all along -- they will be publicly supportive of a player right up to the minute they take some sort of action. If that means they have to take some slings and arrows themselves for contradicting previous statements, so be it.
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  14. #191
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty plans to stick with Cozart in the No. 2 spot

    The dreaded vote of confidence
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  15. #192
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty plans to stick with Cozart in the No. 2 spot

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    The problem with hitting Fraiser #2, is now there's a weak hitter behind Bruce, who will be pitched around.

    Without Fraiser, we're counting on Cozart or the LF guy to "protect" Bruce.. not going to work.

    Frasier is perfect for the #6 hole.
    I might agree if I actually believed in lineup protection -- which I don't. I think the evidence is pretty clear that guys hit pretty similarly no matter where they are in a lineup or who is around them. That's because a pitcher focuses on getting the current hitter out, not on the next guy. Intentional walks will come and go, but the overall effect of a hitter's skills are, generally speaking, going to be fairly consistent.

    What will change, though, are the sequence of events around him -- like whether they guy before him makes an out, or whether he's got guys on base. Frazier is, relative to other Reds, a decent OBP guy. That's why he should hit second, according to Cameron. I tend to agree.

  16. #193
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty plans to stick with Cozart in the No. 2 spot

    The "protection" effect is real, it's just not what people think. Overall production doesn't change, but the shape of it does.

    Guys who are protected get more production through hits and a bit less through walks. But on net, the total amount of production stays the same. And even with the change of the shape, it's not a huge shift.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  18. #194
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty plans to stick with Cozart in the No. 2 spot

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    The problem with hitting Fraiser #2, is now there's a weak hitter behind Bruce, who will be pitched around.

    Without Fraiser, we're counting on Cozart or the LF guy to "protect" Bruce.. not going to work.

    Frasier is perfect for the #6 hole.
    Todd Frazier is not providing protection for Jay Bruce just like Brandon Phillips isn't providing protection for Joey Votto. This team has three hitters that pitchers should be concerned with and none of them protect the other.

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    Re: Dusty plans to stick with Cozart in the No. 2 spot

    Quote Originally Posted by BungleBengals View Post
    I know I have said this many times, but I think Cozart moves to 7th or 8th and Votto and the rest of the lineup moves up one spot.

    I was listening to WLW yesterday morning and Ken Broo had some guy from Boston on the phone who said that this move makes sense. However, he provided more adjustments that would improve run production. He suggested that Dusty, who is stuck in the 80's managerial mindset, take some notes after future HOF Tony LaRussa. This guy said that if/when Dusty moves Votto to 2 hole, then Dusty should also look at batting the pitcher 8th and the LF 9th. This way when the lineup turns over in the middle of an inning then there is a possibility for Choo and Votto to advance and score runners. I thought this would be a very interesting move. I know it is unlikely and I would be content with Votto simply moving to the 2 hole, but I also like what Dusty has done the last 3 games with Robinson and Heisey hitting higher up in the lineup and Cozart down.
    I wouldn't have a problem with this is Leake was pitching even if he's struggling at the plate in his recent starts.


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