The Brandon Phillips Paradox

[Trajinous]

BP is not a mediocre hitter. That's a joke, right? He has 17-20 HR power, that alone sets him apart from the pack. From my understanding, .250 is now the mean batting average. so I see his .271 career avg as above average.

BP is fascinating statistically because he is moved around the line-up so much. Using the eye test, BP focuses on slugging and power when put in the clean-up spot. His approach changes when Dusty moves him to lead-off or the two-hole. The numbers don't show much difference but watching him play over the last few years does.

[Always Red]

Most baseball fans don't understand small sample size. That is why they quote things like 2 out/RISP numbers where one hit or out can sway a guys line by 100+ points through the midway point of the season.

But one could say, and would be correct in doing so, that up to this point in this season, Brandon Phillips has been an exceptional hitter with runners in scoring position.

You can't take that away from him.

And the St. Louis Cardinals should not be hitting like they are with RISP either, but by golly, they're doing it too, so far.

I hope Phillips continues his strange paradox, and the Cards normalize.

[UC_Ken]

BP is not a mediocre hitter. That's a joke, right? He has 17-20 HR power, that alone sets him apart from the pack. From my understanding, .250 is now the mean batting average. so I see his .271 career avg as above average.

His OPS+ over the last 6 years (by no means a small sample size) is within a point or two of 100. Not only is he a mediocre hitter, he may infact be the textbook definition of mediocre hitter

[mdccclxix]

His OPS+ over the last 6 years (by no means a small sample size) is within a point or two of 100. Not only is he a mediocre hitter, he may infact be the textbook definition of mediocre hitter

It's fair to compare him to Arroyo in this regard then. That stability is very valuable.

[Kc61]

So, did Phillips changed his plate approach in 2012? Because this Phillips who bears down with men on base only showed up last year.

	Bases Empty		Men on Base	
	AVG/OBP/SLG/wOBA	AVG/OBP/SLG/wOBA
2009	263/332/453/344		288/325/441/327
2010	284/329/457/344		259/337/384/322	
2011	306/355/474/364		291/349/433/338
2012	268/293/407/304		297/353/456/348	
2013	200/236/335/251		330/392/486/373

I don't know but Phillips these days not only hits with men on, but also with two strikes. There was a flurry of articles around June 1 about Phillips' two strike hitting. He appears (if I'm reading it correctly) to be hitting .306 on 1-2 counts this year and .282 on 0-2 counts, small samples but probably very high numbers compared to the league. Phillips also is hitting well in "high leverage" situations this year, but he hasn't always in the past.

But it seems pretty clear to me that he varies his approach by the situation, and this year I think he is intent on running up those RBI numbers. My guess is it's motivating him and helping him hit better with men on base.

[reds44]

It's fair to compare him to Arroyo in this regard then. That stability is very valuable.

His superb defense combined with his average offense is very valuable.

[UC_Ken]

But it seems pretty clear to me that he varies his approach by the situation, and this year I think he is intent on running up those RBI numbers. My guess is it's motivating him and helping him hit better with men on base.

I feel like these BP debates keep running in circles but if he does have the ability to vary his approach depending on the situation why doesn't he adjust his approach with the bases empty and try to get a new rally started? He doesn't see value in starting a rally when no one's on yet?

[Norm Chortleton]

I feel like these BP debates keep running in circles but if he does have the ability to vary his approach depending on the situation why doesn't he adjust his approach with the bases empty and try to get a new rally started? He doesn't see value in starting a rally when no one's on yet?

As has been mentioned numerous times, he does when he gets to 2 strikes. Before then, he is trying to drive himself in by leaving the ballpark, the only way you can get an RBI with the bases empty. He is motivated by RBIs this year. He's said it many times.

This is not a new approach. This was very common not that long ago.

[Trajinous]

BP tells everyone that he changes his approach! This isn't a mystery we need numbers to solve. He has talked many times about being moved in the line-up and changing his tactics according to line-up position.

[edabbs44]

Phillips OBP in his career hitting leadoff: .325
His career OBP: .321

It's a cool narrative, but not really factual.

is that not an increase?

[Ironman92]

I feel like these BP debates keep running in circles but if he does have the ability to vary his approach depending on the situation why doesn't he adjust his approach with the bases empty and try to get a new rally started? He doesn't see value in starting a rally when no one's on yet?

I'm honestly not sure he does.


Is there anyone that doesn't notice how well he has battled pitchers with RISP and late in the games of late? There isn't a reason in the world why he couldn't do that more often than not. Saying he is who is is doesn't cut it. If he could be guaranteed a gold glove, an all-star berth and doubled popularity to never swing like he's trying to hit his picture on the scoreboard....then he'd do it. He simply doesn't feel the need.

[jojo]

Dat Dude has basically been a league average hitter during the first half of the season. The only paradox is how people can look at his other worldly situational performance this year and accept it as somehow something that is under his control when they'd flat out reject that notion concerning a similar stretch from some player on another team.

[Always Red]

Dat Dude has basically been a league average hitter during the first half of the season. The only paradox is how people can look at his other worldly situational performance this year and accept it as somehow something that is under his control when they'd flat out reject that notion concerning a similar stretch from some player on another team.

Yes, he shouldn't be this different from his normal self this year with RISP.

But he has been, at least until the ASG. He's actually done the work and driven those runners in. It has earned him a spot in the ASG, in the starting lineup at that. Do I expect this good fortune, this "paradox" to continue? No, we know that most of the time, hitters are the same with RISP as they are at any other time.

He's had a great year so far hitting with RISP; I'm not sure why Reds fans can't at least tip their cap to that.

PS- I don't think he's the first half MVP (not that there is such a thing), I think Votto is. If Votto could hit behind Choo and himself, he'd be cleaning up.

But that takes nothing away from what Phillips has done this year. He's been the rarest of ballplayers, he's been a "clutch hitter." (There, I said it).

[westofyou]

I feel like these BP debates keep running in circles but if he does have the ability to vary his approach depending on the situation why doesn't he adjust his approach with the bases empty and try to get a new rally started? He doesn't see value in starting a rally when no one's on yet?

Exactly, if outs are the ultimate resource to to give up then why doesn't he adjust his approach to limit outs in that situation?

Because it's the "El Dorado" of baseball skills?

[JayStubbs]

Talk about something ridiculous....with bases loaded this season, he has 8 hits in 10 ABs!

Pat Tabler laughs at that.