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Thread: The Brandon Phillips Paradox

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    Member NebraskaRed's Avatar
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    The Brandon Phillips Paradox

    http://www.redreporter.com/2013/7/15...l-star-game-2B

    There is literally nothing about the way Phillips' season has gone thus far that could be described as conventional. Not a thing. For instance, National League hitters as a whole have a .938 OPS when the pitcher is behind 2-0...but Phillips has a rather unbelievable .347 OPS in those counts. Conversely, NL hitters have combined for just a putrid .452 OPS in 2-2 counts...and Phillips, in those scenarios, is mashing at an .882 clip.

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    Member mattfeet's Avatar
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    Re: The Brandon Phillips Paradox

    Cool article.

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    Member NebraskaRed's Avatar
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    Re: The Brandon Phillips Paradox

    My favorite part of the article:

    The truly eye-popping stats, however, are in his situational hitting. In the 178 times Phillips has stepped to the plate without a single Red on the basepaths, he's hitting a miserable .200/.236/.335. That's Cozartian. When there is at least one Red in scoring position, however, Phillips is hitting a rather astonishing .404/.463/.566 in his 124 PAs. That .458 gap in OPS is big enough to fit a Jonathan Broxton/Prince Fielder man-hug. The NL average gap is just .017.

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    Re: The Brandon Phillips Paradox

    Those 2 excerpts reinforce what BP has been saying all year: he is trying to drive in runs at all costs. When nobody is on base or when he is way ahead in the count he is trying to hit the ball 9 miles (and he isn't good at it). He's excelling with RISP and/or with 2 strikes because his focus changes to putting the ball in play.

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    Re: The Brandon Phillips Paradox

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    Those 2 excerpts reinforce what BP has been saying all year: he is trying to drive in runs at all costs. When nobody is on base or when he is way ahead in the count he is trying to hit the ball 9 miles (and he isn't good at it). He's excelling with RISP and/or with 2 strikes because his focus changes to putting the ball in play.
    While I don't doubt his approach changes in certain situations, if he could hit .400 whenever he wanted he would do so at all times. Not to mention his .566 SLG with RISP means he's doing more than simply putting the ball in play.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

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    Re: The Brandon Phillips Paradox

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    Those 2 excerpts reinforce what BP has been saying all year: he is trying to drive in runs at all costs. When nobody is on base or when he is way ahead in the count he is trying to hit the ball 9 miles (and he isn't good at it). He's excelling with RISP and/or with 2 strikes because his focus changes to putting the ball in play.
    This is what makes BP so great. He adapts his game to the situation/position he's playing. When he was our lead-off hitter in the past, his OBP increased because he knew what that batting position needed to do. It's truly remarkable and I love his attitude toward it. He doesn't make it a big deal because he's just doing what his job is.

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    Re: The Brandon Phillips Paradox

    Quote Originally Posted by Trajinous View Post
    This is what makes BP so great. He adapts his game to the situation/position he's playing. When he was our lead-off hitter in the past, his OBP increased because he knew what that batting position needed to do. It's truly remarkable and I love his attitude toward it. He doesn't make it a big deal because he's just doing what his job is.
    Phillips OBP in his career hitting leadoff: .325
    His career OBP: .321

    It's a cool narrative, but not really factual.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

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    Re: The Brandon Phillips Paradox

    Talk about something ridiculous....with bases loaded this season, he has 8 hits in 10 ABs!

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    Re: The Brandon Phillips Paradox

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    Phillips OBP in his career hitting leadoff: .325
    His career OBP: .321

    It's a cool narrative, but not really factual.
    A lot of that has to do with Phillips leading off all the time in Cleveland when he still sucked, I believe. His more recent career numbers do seem to support the idea that he is better there up top.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

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    Re: The Brandon Phillips Paradox

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    Not to mention his .566 SLG with RISP means he's doing more than simply putting the ball in play.
    You don't have to swing out of your shoes to hit the ball out of the park or hit one it the gap. It's a lot easier to square the ball up when you swing within yourself, which is what he's doing with RISP and 2 strikes.

    I'd bet my house that more of BP's HRs and XBH this year have come as a result of him making good contact because he was trying to put the ball in play. When he overswings he rarely squares it up = pop ups and weak ground balls.

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    Re: The Brandon Phillips Paradox

    OBP hitting leadoff by year:
    2012: .254
    2011: .417
    2010: .302

    He is the same hitter no matter where he hits in the lineup.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

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    Re: The Brandon Phillips Paradox

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    While I don't doubt his approach changes in certain situations, if he could hit .400 whenever he wanted he would do so at all times. Not to mention his .566 SLG with RISP means he's doing more than simply putting the ball in play.
    His plate approach is different when he has 2 strikes and it is way different with RISP. He's always been a tough out when he's focused on not making an out....but he wails away 10x more often and rarely is successful.

    If he would rarely wail at the ball and mostly approach every AB like he's the potential last out and a HR still isn't enough....well I believe he would be a .825-.850 OPS guy

    Being aggressive doesn't mean trying to hit your picture on the scoreboard.

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    Re: The Brandon Phillips Paradox

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    OBP hitting leadoff by year:
    2012: .254
    2011: .417
    2010: .302

    He is the same hitter no matter where he hits in the lineup.
    He only hit leadoff in 28 games in 2012 and 38 games in 2011. Not sure you can come to that conclusion based on that small sample size.

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    Re: The Brandon Phillips Paradox

    If Brandon Phillips is as "adaptable" to the situation as everyone suggests, shouldn't we start pinch hitting for him late in games with no one on? He hasn't been able to figure that one out yet.

    BTW I'm not suggesting that, I just know if you're hitting in the .260s and your batting average w/RISP is near .400 you are a statistical outlier. It isn't possible to change your approach that much. I think there is some skill to focusing more in pressure situations but to the extent to maybe 20 or 30 percentage points, not a 140 point discrepancy. Even if you give him credit for rising to the occasion that leaves at least 80 points unaccounted for other than calling it a statistical fluke.

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    Re: The Brandon Phillips Paradox

    Projecting forward those numbers are quite scary.
    This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.


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