Puig recently was pulled from a game in the fifth inning by Mattingly for disciplinary reasons. He's putting up great numbers, but the Dodgers coaching staff and some of his teammates aren't completely happy with him. The move was very well received in the clubhouse.
For me the question isn't would the Dodgers trade Puig for Chapman. The question is would the Reds want him.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
You're right about my bias against speed guys. It's because most of them usually suck. I'd prefer this team deal Hamilton and trade for some other young CF of the future. Guys who hit have a better chance. Drew Stubbs was a below average player. Willy Taveras was a downright awful player. 100 SB minor league guys like Esix Snead and Chris Morris never even cracked the majors. Speed is a wonderful secondary tool, but it's a secondary tool. If a guy can't hit, he doesn't excite me. You can always find gloves (which is a much more important tool than speed BTW and yes I know speed helps it). I want guys who hit as my hopes for the future.Originally Posted by 757690
BTW, BAs mid-season top 50 had Pederson ranked at 35 with a comment that he can hit, hit for power, field and run. Hamilton was at 36 with the comment that he has the game's best speed but his LH swing still needs work. Your assertion that everyone has Hamilton rated over Pederson isn't correct and probably based on old information.
Even if Pederson is not the right target, the facts remain:
1. Choo is going to be too expensive to bring back and CF is the obvious hole to be filled (along with lead-off hitter).
2. Chapman has reached arb status which means next season he will be owed his pre-negotiated salary ($3 Million) as a bonus plus whatever he can get from an arbitrator. I'm guessing an award in the $7 Million range.
3. The Reds budget looks to be maxed out without a huge increase and the need is for some young ready now guys who can contribute on the cheap starting with 2014.
4. JJ Hoover looks ready to close IMO. Lecure and Simon offer decent help in front of him. Lorenzen could be able to help next season. There are power arms who should be in AAA next year like Partch, Crabbe, Corcino and a Lecure type in Sharky Rogers. Carlos Contreras in AA would also qualify. A move to the pen could make any of them come pretty fast. If the Reds have info about Marshall and Broxton and their prognosis for 2014 by the winter meetings, Chapman would be the obvious high value piece that could bring a lot in return that the Reds could be able to afford to deal. A less expensive vet or two could also be targeted if need be.
Chapman is the guy to deal. The target should be young cheap players who are ready to contribute in 2014. If the reports on Broxton and Marshall are poor, maybe a lesser reliever needs to be included as well, but Chapman is the high value guy who could bring a lot back that the team could best afford to deal in terms of budget and organizational depth IMO.
Last edited by mth123; 08-31-2013 at 07:35 AM.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
I thoroughly enjoyed seeing Chapman destroy Puig the other night. I wish our guys would have slid into home on both walk-offs just to shove it in his face
"I had a cigar in my back pocket...I didn't wanna break it." - Bartholomew "Bump" Bailey
I think a lot of you undervalue how important having someone like Chapman is. Sure, he's had a few tough road games, but come playoff time in a one run game he'll make all the difference that might mean the difference between getting to and winning the World Series. I just don't get why so many feel like anyone can be a closer.
Old school 1983 (09-11-2013)
I don't understand the entire trade chapman push on this board either. But I think people like to look at number of saves or save percentage and say so and so is the same caliber as so and so bc they have the same stats. IMO the save is a flawed stat and by itself doesn't denote the overall effectiveness or effect of the closer or a shut down bullpen on the game or the opposing team.
Not that I am in the "Trade Chapman" camp but there are a couple of reasons why they believe he should be traded. First, some people believe he is being wasted as a closer and should start. If not for the Reds, then perhaps someone else would want to give the Reds something they need. Secondly, he is going to become expensive. While he does the job, some think that someone else could do what he does just as well if not as spectacularly. The Cardinals seemed to replace their closer all right. So did the Pirates when they traded Hanrahan and replaced him with Grilli. Grilli went down and they put Melancon in there and they did just fine. Chapman saves games at an 85% rate. Mariano Rivera is at 89%. As a comparison, the much reviled Danny Graves and Francisco Cordero saved games at an 82% and an 81% rate respectively. John Franco saved games at an 81% rate.
I understand the rates part but I never understood the we aren't using him to his full potential as a starter so lets trade him part. He has extreme value to this team as the closer. Imahine the len this yesr without him. Yipe! And with Bronson more than likely leaving next year a potential starter especially if someone else is moved in the offseason for offensive help. I wouldn't mind a chapman starting experiment next year especially with Stephenson waiting in the wings in case it implodes and he has to go back to the pen. Arms like chapman come along once in a lifetime if not less. Lets use the guy in the team whether starter or closer he will contribute greatly to reds wins and allow the pen to be set up to shorten the game. At the onset of the year we had three closers going in the 7th 8th and 9th. Sure other guys could put up similar percentages but its just not the 9th inning. It's the setup of the pen leading up to that and the mental effect a guy throwing up to 105 has on the opposing team. Sure graves tallied up the saves. And the cards and pirates replaced closers easily but they were not of chapmans caliber or have his stuff. Really IMO opinion most pitchers could get a good amount of saves, but the effectiveness and impact of a closer goes beyond that plus chapman always seems to have a chance to start depending in how things go. I just don't want to let an arm like that go because some other dude may get comparable save totals without chspmans stuff or effect on the pen or people think his potential is wasted as a closer.
Last edited by Old school 1983; 09-13-2013 at 12:26 AM.
RedlegJake (09-13-2013)
I'm in the Trade Chapman camp because:
1. He's going to cost $10 Million plus, the Reds have holes to fill and have little in the way of money to fill them. Chapman has value that could bring back 2 or 3 high end cheap young players to fill those holes while maintaining the budget.
2. No one will be as spectacular as Chapman, but he is the only high value, big contract guy on the roster with a replacement on hand (JJ Hoover). How else would you fill holes? Dealing Votto, Phillips, Bruce, Bailey or Latos just creates other bigger holes and the Reds don't have a replacement for any of them in sight. The Reds OF will already be short with Choo walking and there isn't anyone to replace him, let alone anyone to replace Bruce. The rotation will lose it's steady inning base in Arroyo and will depend on an injury question mark and a second year player who is still a question IMO to fill two of the spots, so dealing a starter seems like a huge risk. There are some good prospects for the future, but none who are usable in the major leagues before mid-season 2014 IMO and probably not then unless there is a disaster. Phillips has kind of a bad contract, is probably not really that tradable and would create a big hole with no one to fill it even if he could be dealt. Dealing Votto would signal a major rebuild. Other than those 5, the Reds really have no one else to bring back players who are talented enough to fill the holes while being cheap enough to fit the budget besides Chapman.
3. The Reds could keep them all, but CF would be some combination of Chris Heisey and Derrick Robinson while we hope and pray that Billy Hamilton can OPS above .600 (something I seriously doubt at this point).
Like it or not, this team will look different in 2014. Two fairly major pieces are going to walk, there isn't anyone ready in the system to take their place and there isn't any money to add anything more than a journeyman veteran or two (likely a cast-off in the Hannahan mold). The Reds don't have the spare prospects to deal for vets and don't have the money to pay the vets if they find a taker for a middling minor leaguer or two. The Reds are going to need to a deal a player who is valued enough to bring back some talent and would provide enough salary relief to make it work. IF not Chapman, who would that be? Doing nothing is conceding 2014 IMO.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
mth nailed it perfectly.
Chapman is the one high value part the Reds have with adequate replacements the club can move to fill 2-3 other pressing needs. He's one of the most unique and fun to watch players in MLB history but also a luxury the Reds won't soon be able to afford by being wasted as a closer.
I'd hate to see latos or bailey walk, but chapman may be their replacement and let's not forget about Stephenson. I could see homer as a trade chip same with cueto if we can extend homer. I'd be more than happy to trade chapman in the right deal for a proven star major league performer. For anything else idk. If we had an average closer, I'd be all for giving Hoover the ball in the 9th, but that shortens the pen, also his lower save percentage may be a 5 game swing and just taking this season into consideration, that may take us out of the playoff picture. Sure chapman will have a big contract, but he also has a big impact on this teams performance. You don't just trade once in a generation talent (see Hamilton for Volquez and pappas for Robinson) for marginally better offensive production. If he's traded we better get at least an all star or super elite prospect back. If not, he does more for the team by being on the team. With Stephenson in the wings and chapman as a possible rotation solution, it seems as if, at least to me it'd be a better idea to look into moving homer or cueto.
I don't trade a talent like chapman just to fill temporary holes in 2014. Here's my take on the who to trade issue. Cueto or Homer are the guys to look at trading to me. Out of the two I'd rather see Homer on the team long term. He's young and still improving. Even before the injury I saw cueto as a guy who is maxed out in terms of talent. I make homer an offer for a long term contract. If he accepts cueto is the guy to trade, if he refuses homer is the guy to trade. Even with the injuries cueto IMO could command a return of pretty much any wanted piece short of super elite players. Homer could command around the same depending on the deal just because he is under contract for only one year.
At that point your rotation next year could be:
Latos
Cueto/Homer
Cingrani
Leake
Chapman
In recent years, closers have been fairly reasonable in the FA market or via trade of lesser prospects. Get one. If at some point in the year Stephenson appears ready, he takes chapman a spot and chapman returns to the pen making it even deeper.
Also think three dimensionally: with arroyo and choo walking, that's two first round pics. Who knows what we could pick up. Furthermore, think three dimensionally in terms if positions of strength organizationally per position. Our strength is outfield. Bruce at the MLB level. Then Hamilton, Ervin and winker. IMO I think at least one of Ervin and winker will blow up next year and become an elite level prospect by the end of the season. At that point they could take over in left, or be a trade chip in their own right or even make Bruce a viable trade chip, and with just his current level if production, he could get a hefty return. To me between Bruce Ervin Hamilton and Winker, and maybe even another OF depending on the trade return of either cueto or homer, seems like to me would make for some pretty awesome trade chips to fill needs in 2015 without conceding 2014.
I just wouldn't deal a starting pitcher right now. That rotation consists of an injury risk who has the whole short righthander quick flameout risk attached (Cueto), a rookie with less than a full season in the big leagues (Cingrani) and a guy who has already said he doesn't want to start and hasn't really shown any ability to work through a line-up multiple times (Chapman). I don't think Cueto would bring back much this off-season, so if you want to get anything it's Latos or Bailey IMO. Leake may get a decent player with similar cost, but not multiple high end cheap guys IMO (Bailey probably wouldn't either since he's basically a rental now).
I'm not talking about dealing Chapman for guys to fill holes temporarily, I'm talking about trading him for at least one building block type player who plays a position of need and another pretty good young player who would be an asset while he's cheap and possibly a third who could backfill as depth for the pen or rotation. You may need to add one of those depth OF to get all that.
As far as dealing those young trade chips for vets, how are you going to pay the vets? The Reds need more young cheap, productive players. I'm not nearly as ready to assume that 2 of Y-Rod, Winker, Ervin and Hamilton will be reliable every day OF by 2015. I'd be ok letting them compete for one spot, but I want a cheap, high end, ready now young OF for 2014 and beyond. If the team ends up with too many, that will be a good problem down the road. Dealing Chapman, would go a long way toward being able to afford a good player that dealing one or more of those guys might bring back.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
I'd love to think we could get that type of return for chapman, and would be for such a trade, but idk if we could get that return since he is a closer and not a starter, and in recent years closers have seemed to not demand much value as FA or trade chips. I know he had the potential to start, but that is just potential, and in the trade market that could hurt his value as compared to Cueto or Bailey who are proven commodities as starters.
I still think cueto could fetch an extremely good talent in the market, and this year has kind of shown the rotation can survive without him. Honestly I want bailey here long term. Period, but if he refuses to sign, I think instant major league help would be more impactful for the team than another first round 2015 pick.
The thing with that rotation, is the safety valve of Stephenson, playing the role that cingrani did this year. And who knows maybe chapman will be an even better starter than bailey or cueto? But I definitely see the risk there, but at the same time, I think bailey or cueto may be able to return more in the market than chapman, and that return may produce more for the team in the long run than cueto or bailey.
Now if Lorenzen seems ready to close, we can get a decent closer, and the return for chapman will be what you gauge it to be, I'd pull the trigger. Idk if that'd be the case though.
I'm not so sure that they don;t try stretching Lorenzen out next spring and work with him on some off speed stuff and at least try to convert him to starting in the minors. Remember, this year he came from college where all he had ever done was relieve and it was perilous to immediately start working him as a starter so they kept him in the pen. The talks of his arm are just through the roof potential wise - the hitting and the relieving, I think were smokescreens, partly to satisfy him to sign and partly to obscure their real intentions from everyone until they could get him in the system and see what they really had. From all I've heard he's everything they hoped and maybe even more. We could be talking a tandem ace to pair with Stephenson IF he can pick up a good enough change of some kind to go with an already above average curve (that needs consistency). It's become obvious to me, pitching was their aim with Michael all along. They just needed to make him see it. Stretched out, with a god change, and some curve consistency, he could rapidly gain the same altitude as Stephenson prospect wise - as a starter. SO - Lorenzen to the pen probably happens only if he flops in an attempt to stretch into a starting role.
Whether to trade Chapman or Bailey? Well, that may depend on how they think Bailey really feels about a long term deal here, and if its a no go to a deal: whether they feel they can get ore this winter, would do better to ride him to the deadline and get what they can then, giving their prospects time to prepare to step up, or simply let him pitch out the string, then let a prospect take his spot and take the pick. Homer Bailey in late July to a pennant contender could be HUGE and could pry a bonafide #1 or 2 type prospect away. A full year of Homer might bring a more seasoned but still young player. But Homer in a Reds uni through the season and post season has its own advantages, too, even if it means taking a draft pick and waiting years for result. (And if Bailey is integral to pitching them to a title and then a guy like Stephenson takes over seamlessly it may be the best of the options).
Like Old School, my only problem with dealing Chappy is wondering if the return would be worth his talent. As a closer he might not bring a suitable package. Chapman is elite. I want elite player(s) back.
Another note - good pitching is more plentiful than ever. Good young pitchers are everywhere it seems like. ERAs, WHIP, K rates - all are trending in pitcher's favor. Watch hitters become the over valued market pieces now. Really good hitters will command premiums because there is a dearth of them right now at practically any position. Expect an overpay to upgrade the Reds weakest offensive spots - 3B, SS, LF, C and if Choo leaves, CF.
I'd love to see Lorenzen be put in a starting role but idk if they'd have rushed him to AA they way they have if that were going to be the case. Plus if he pans out, he'll be a cheap you g bullpen piece with plus stuff, which the reds lack now. All of the plus pieces are or will be getting expensive. That may be weighing into his eventual usage.
In my perfect dream world the reds resign Homer, keep chapman and get a solid offensive contributor for cueto. Or at least keep homer through next year and collect a pick in 2015. This offseason should be interesting though. Lots of tough decisions and multiple directions the team could go with several players.
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