I guess I see three years of control remaining with Chapman, a couple of All Star appearances, coupled with star power to charge up a fan base. Bailey is a one year rental and Cueto a guy who missed most of the season with a repetitive motion injury that has recurred multiple times. Of those three, I just think Chapman is most likely to center a deal for the type of talent I'm talking about than either of those guys. In fact, the only guy on the Reds who would be more likely is probably Latos (though Bruce has a favorable deal and might be able to bring in a haul). When I consider that Chapman is the only one with a guy to take his place and guys lined up in the high minors to backfill it seems like the place to deal from.
Some differences between us are probably:
1. I'm not really a believer that Chapman is an option for the rotation.
2. I don't think that Billy Hamilton is ready, is an iffy proposition to ever be ready and may not be all that impactful if he has to actually hit for himself even if he gets ready.
3. There is a lot of ground to cover between Ervin and Winker and the major leagues and wouldn't let their presence in the low minors deter me from acquiring a ready now OF with high offensive upside.
4. Y-Rod has been slow to put it together, but even if he does, Ludwick will be gone in 2015 and the Reds will actually have two spots to fill in the OF along with Bruce.
5. The type of money the Reds have available is the type that can buy an effective somewhat proven middle reliever to backfill for dealing Chapman and promoting Hoover. They just have too much cash committed to add impact guys for CF or the IF without dealing for cheap ones.
6. Beyond Latos, Bailey, Leake, an iffy Cueto and a still unproven Cingrani, the Reds don't have any one that they could likely plug into the rotation in 2014. Stephenson may arrive at some point, but he can't be penciled in as a guy out of spring training. Corcino is the pitching version of Hamilton who has gone from prospect to question mark during 2013. Guys like Rogers, Contreras, Smith, Renken and Crabbe all seem more likely to be successful in the bullpen than in the rotation in the major leagues and would be more likely to become backfills for Lecure or Hoover as they move into more prominent roles, than they would be backfills for Bailey, Cueto or a starting pitcher. Even if one of them works out, they are likely to need him anyway even if they keep the five guys already penciled in.
7. They are iffy healthwise, but Sean Marshall and Jonathon Broxton seem more likely able to pick-up the slack in the pen in 2014 than anyone in the organization would seem likely to successfully man one of the 5 rotation spots IMO.
Originally Posted by Old NDN
