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Thread: Maybe Phillips IS the Reds MVP...

  1. #1
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Maybe Phillips IS the Reds MVP...

    FWIW, there is an interesting stat to measure batting runs produced that splits the difference between "players should get no credit for context/timing" measures like wOBA and "let's just pay attention to a piece of the puzzle and ignore the rest" stats like RBI: RE24.

    Per Fangraphs:
    RE24 (runs above average by the 24 base/out states): RE24 is the difference in run expectancy (RE) between the start of the play and the end of the play. That difference is then credited/debited to the batter and the pitcher. Over the course of the season, each playersí RE24 for individual plays is added up to get his season total RE24.
    In short, rather than just look at the production of the player, it counts the production in the context in which occurred. So, it actually counts the downside of Phillips low OBP and SLG in general, but gives him "extra" credit for coming through so often with men on base. Now, you can choose how much "credit" you want to give Phillips for the timing of his performances, but basically, this stat weights his performances by the leverage of the situation.

    So let's look at a few numbers.

    wOBA: Total measure of batting production using linear-weights (average value of a given outcome without consideration of context), scaled to OBP

    wRAA: Batting runs produced relative to the average hitter, calculated based on wOBA

    RE24: Batting runs produced relative the average expected outcomes give the base-out situations in which the player batted.

    Diff: RE24 minus wRAA. A positive value means the player's "real" production in terms of affecting the team's chance to score runs was greater than we would assume if we just looked at total outcome stats irrespective of context.

    Code:
    	  wOBA	 wRAA	RE24	Diff
    Choo	  .392	 27.2	32.0	 4.8
    Cozart	  .268  -13.7  -22.1	-8.4
    Votto	  .403   30.7	29.0	-1.7
    Phillips  .316	  0.8   19.4	18.6
    Bruce	  .349	 11.7   15.6	 3.9
    Frazier	  .323    2.8    7.1	 4.3
    What do we see? By wOBA, Phillips is almost exactly average. But when you look at his performances based on how they affected actual run expectancy (relative to what we would expect an average hitter to do), Phillips has actually produced 19 runs more than average. This difference between RE24 & wRAA is the largest in baseball.

    By contrast, Zack Cozart 's crappy performance has actually cost the Reds 8 runs MORE than you would think just looking at his wOBA. Ouch!

    If you're a believer in giving players credit for clutch performances, for RBI, etc. -- essentially, giving players credit for not just how they perform but by giving more credit to performances in high leverage situation (for better or worse), RE24 is the stat for you.

    Now, if you went in to Fangraphs' WAR and you replaced "Batting" with RE24 (which I wouldn't do exactly b/c "Batting" does an adjustment on wRAA to account for park effects), you'd find that Phillips, Votto and Choo are all virtually tied at around 3.6 WAR. Not that I would do this, but if you wanted to, I could see the Phillips for Reds' MVP case in a more reasonable light.

    And on an interesting side note, I looked at the difference between wRAA at the team level. On average, team RE24 is ~7 runs lower than wRAA, so the systems don't match perfectly. But the relative comparisons are still very interesting. And what do we find? The Cardinals and A's have the highest difference at +39 runs. That is to say, their offense has produced 39 more expected runs than the mere sum of their individual batting lines would suggest. Meanwhile, the Rockies are 105 runs worse. OUCH!

    In the FWIW department, wRAA appears to be more strongly correlated with actual run scoring at the team level than RE24 --- so you could consider it a better predictor of actual run scoring. But I thought the RE24 stuff was interesting nonetheless.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  4. #2
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Maybe Phillips IS the Reds MVP...

    Great explanation Rick, as usual. I learn so much stuff on this board!

  5. #3
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Maybe Phillips IS the Reds MVP...

    Like you, I'm not sure I really buy that Phillips is the MVP based on this, but it sure is nice to see somebody do the math from the opposing viewpoint rather just rejecting the entire notion out of hand.

    Kudos.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: Maybe Phillips IS the Reds MVP...

    So what this says is not only Cozart not doing well... he's also anti - clutch?

  8. #5
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Maybe Phillips IS the Reds MVP...

    Great post. Thanks for all the info!
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Maybe Phillips IS the Reds MVP...

    RISP with the winning run on, 2 outs, bottom of the 9th, 7th game of the world series and the Reds are down...

    Who do you send to the plate-Phillips or Votto?

    That's your most valuable player and frankly, I doubt a poll asking this question would even be close.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Maybe Phillips IS the Reds MVP...

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    RISP with the winning run on, 2 outs, bottom of the 9th, 7th game of the world series and the Reds are down...

    Who do you send to the plate-Phillips or Votto?

    That's your most valuable player and frankly, I doubt a poll asking this question would even be close.
    And every team would walk Votto to get to Phillips, even though it's not working at all this year.

    Reds in WS? Cool

  11. #8
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Maybe Phillips IS the Reds MVP...

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    And every team would walk Votto to get to Phillips, even though it's not working at all this year.

    Reds in WS? Cool
    Bases loaded then.

    But that is also the point. Teams are still walking Votto to face Phillips for a reason. No one fears Phillips.
    Last edited by dougdirt; 07-20-2013 at 04:42 PM.

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    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Maybe Phillips IS the Reds MVP...

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Bases loaded then.

    But that is also the point. Teams are still walking Votto to face Phillips for a reason. No one fears Phillips.
    At some point if BP can keep his RBI tear going....teams will slowly stop walking Votto if it doesn't set up a force.

  14. #10
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Maybe Phillips IS the Reds MVP...

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    RISP with the winning run on, 2 outs, bottom of the 9th, 7th game of the world series and the Reds are down...

    Who do you send to the plate-Phillips or Votto?

    That's your most valuable player and frankly, I doubt a poll asking this question would even be close.
    I think this year is proving it doesn't matter.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Maybe Phillips IS the Reds MVP...

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Bases loaded then.
    I feel compelled to mention that Phillips is batting .800 (12 for 15) with bases loaded over the past two years. But yeah, I understand that's a freak stat.

  16. #12
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Maybe Phillips IS the Reds MVP...

    He's on pace for 130 RBI's (and a .320 ob%)

    IF he has 130 RBI's it will be the most ever with that type of OB% (current is Tony Armas 123 with a .300%)

    That would be amazing


    In the history of the game (modern) there has been 63 guys to have 100 RBI in a season and a .320 OB% (The Reds high is Frank McCormick in 1942 (97))

    Here are the guys to do it more than once

    Code:
     
    RBI >= 100
    OBA <= .320
    
    1    Joe Carter                8   
    T2   Tony Armas                3   
    T2   Jose Canseco              3   
    T4   Garret Anderson           2   
    T4   Ernie Banks               2   
    T4   Ruben Sierra              2   
    T4   Lee May                   2   
    T4   Tony Batista              2   
    T4   Dick Stuart               2   
    T4   Matt Williams             2
    Carter did it batting behind a young Julio Franco, Roberto Alomar and Carlos Delgado.

    1696 players have gotten 100 RBIs in a season, only 63 of them have done it with a .320 OB% or less than (3.7%) most of those guys likely batted behind someone who avoided outs in an elite fashion.

    We are witness to an outlier season, the question is can it continue at this same pace (.320 % and RBI achievement above norm) or will it normalize or pray tell... increase.

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    Re: Maybe Phillips IS the Reds MVP...

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    RISP with the winning run on, 2 outs, bottom of the 9th, 7th game of the world series and the Reds are down...

    Who do you send to the plate-Phillips or Votto?

    That's your most valuable player and frankly, I doubt a poll asking this question would even be close.
    They took this exact poll during yesterday's broadcast, and you're right, it wasn't even close. Phillips won in a landslide. He's done exactly what we needed from him, a lot more actually, after Ludwick went down in the first game of the season.
    "I talked to an advance scout that told me if Joey Votto and Albert Pujols were on the same team he'd advise his team to do the unthinkable...pitch around Votto to get to Pujols." - Buster Olney, ESPN

  19. #14
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: Maybe Phillips IS the Reds MVP...

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Bases loaded then.

    But that is also the point. Teams are still walking Votto to face Phillips for a reason. No one fears Phillips.
    With as high of an RBI% as Phillips has this season, it seems like its pretty obvious though that its coming back to bite them in the ass.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

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  21. #15
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Maybe Phillips IS the Reds MVP...

    Wow, Joe Carter's entire career was an outlier!
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013


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