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Thread: Brian Kenny crushing Dusty on Twitter

  1. #391
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Brian Kenny crushing Dusty on Twitter

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    The Nats have 6 guys with 100 or more PAs and sub .270 OB%, 3 of whom have hit leadoff and 3 of whom have hit 2nd. And yet he says this a few days ago:
    Code:
    		2013 PA	   Most PA batting	2013 OBP	Career OBP	Career PA
    Cozart		423		2nd (287)	.271		.282		1061
    Suzuki		259		8th (236)	.276		.309		3210
    Lombardozi	217		2nd (96)	.257		.293		 665
    Moore		175		6th (63)	.229		.275		 284
    Espinosa	167		7th (118)	.193		.303		1595
    Bernadina	161		7th (46)	.250		.311		1311
    Tracy		103		9th (43)	.214		.333		2955
    One of these guys is not like the others. Only one of these 7 players is 1) an everyday player who b) spent most of his time batting at the top of the lineup and who C) it should have been expected that he would post a horrible OBP.

    The only one of those 6 Nats who has a plurality of his PA at the top of the lineup has 1/3 of the PA Cozart has. I'm sorry, but Davey Johnson's having a bunch of role players who are failing to get on base and who occasionally bat at the top of the lineup (and 4 of whom have career OBPs above .300) is very different than Dusty plugging an everyday player with a career .282 OBP in the 2 spot on most days.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #392
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Brian Kenny crushing Dusty on Twitter

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Code:
    		2013 PA	   Most PA batting	2013 OBP	Career OBP	Career PA
    Cozart		423		2nd (287)	.271		.282		1061
    Suzuki		259		8th (236)	.276		.309		3210
    Lombardozi	217		2nd (96)	.257		.293		 665
    Moore		175		6th (63)	.229		.275		 284
    Espinosa	167		7th (118)	.193		.303		1595
    Bernadina	161		7th (46)	.250		.311		1311
    Tracy		103		9th (43)	.214		.333		2955
    One of these guys is not like the others. Only one of these 7 players is 1) an everyday player who b) spent most of his time batting at the top of the lineup and who C) it should have been expected that he would post a horrible OBP.

    The only one of those 6 Nats who has a plurality of his PA at the top of the lineup has 1/3 of the PA Cozart has. I'm sorry, but Davey Johnson's having a bunch of role players who are failing to get on base and who occasionally bat at the top of the lineup (and 4 of whom have career OBPs above .300) is very different than Dusty plugging an everyday player with a career .282 OBP in the 2 spot on most days.
    The Nats have 3 guys with a .350+ OBP. 5 with a .320+. 6 with a .310+.

    Washington is the only team in baseball with a worse #2 OBP than Cincy, sitting at .272.

    Someone has been hitting there. And likely not the guys named Harper, Zimmerman and Werth for the most part.

  4. #393
    Member VR's Avatar
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    Re: Brian Kenny crushing Dusty on Twitter

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    The Nats have 3 guys with a .350+ OBP. 5 with a .320+. 6 with a .310+.

    Washington is the only team in baseball with a worse #2 OBP than Cincy, sitting at .272.

    Someone has been hitting there. And likely not the guys named Harper, Zimmerman and Werth for the most part.
    Unpossible, Davey Johnson is a far better manager than Dusty.
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

  5. #394
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Brian Kenny crushing Dusty on Twitter

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    I can't defend the #2 hitters, however one thing to think about is the Reds are leading the majors in sac bunts by #2 hitters. Just think how many times he'd take the bat out of a better hitter's hands if there was a change made there.

    Regarding Phillips, I think it is somewhat unfair to go after Dusty here. We know BP isn't as bad as what he has shown in the past 2 months. What is Dusty supposed to do? Time it? If Jay were to go into one of his 4-6 week downward spirals starting today, would you advocate him being dropped in the order?
    Would Dusty take the bat out of the hands of a better hitter in the #2 spot though? I don't know. I still would take that over having a worse hitter there though.

    With Phillips, there are a lot of issues I have with it. First and foremost is that in no way, shape or form, should he have ever been hitting fourth on this team as long as Votto and Bruce were healthy. But, I would say that after June of him not hitting, maybe it is time to try something else until he starts hitting. When Jay Bruce, or anyone else, goes on 4+ weeks of slumping, yes, I would advocate dropping them in the order some. We are 8 weeks in to our cleanup hitting with an OBP under .275 and a SLG of .300.

  6. #395
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Brian Kenny crushing Dusty on Twitter

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    I'm all for doing everything you can to win the most games. But when we're talking about a max of 1-2 wins if everything is perfectly optimized with perfect conditions, you're really splitting hairs.
    If there's a chance the Reds can get 2 more wins in any given season, I want them doing everything they can to do that.

  7. #396
    Member redsrule2500's Avatar
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    Re: Brian Kenny crushing Dusty on Twitter

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Dusty sure is a lucky guy!!

    He's managed three clubs and the only success he has is because he's had good players (well yeah that helps)but otherwise he's one lucky guy to have done this with two teams.

    1993 Giants 103 wins, most by Giants since 1962

    2012 Reds 97 wins, most by Reds since 1976

    Lucky for him to have been there each time.
    This post is exactly correct, and I will choose to ignore your sarcasm!

    But...

    Do you honestly think that your cherry-picking of stats such as "most wins since" is worthwhile? 1999 Reds had 96 with a worse statistical team - that extra game is definitely because of Dusty, right? Come on.

    The Reds of the 96-2008 teams had no chance, and you know this - Dusty was gifted a team that could compete, and he sits there with his million dollar gifts, while befriending and motivating players.
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  9. #397
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Brian Kenny crushing Dusty on Twitter

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    If there's a chance the Reds can get 2 more wins in any given season, I want them doing everything they can to do that.
    You can get 2 more wins by nothing more than fluctuation. Micromanaging on the chance you *might* get 2 more wins is really a bit of an exercise in futility. That's really too little a return for *might*.

    Furthermore, assuming that automatically every high-OBP is automatically better off higher in the order on any given night without considering who's pitching, where they're playing, whether the batter is healthy, etc., also will never yield optimum results. And those are things the optimization trials ignore.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    dubc47834 (08-02-2013), RANDY IN INDY (08-02-2013), Todd Gack (08-02-2013)

  11. #398
    GO XAVIER! toledodan's Avatar
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    Re: Brian Kenny crushing Dusty on Twitter

    joe torre could only manage the yankees. the rest of the time he managed was a disaster. dusty does well with loaded rosters.
    there's nothing like bowling a 300 game! 13 now and retired.


    Ricky henderson has a higher OBP than C. patterson and he's retired. C. Trent 6-14-2008

  12. #399
    GO XAVIER! toledodan's Avatar
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    Re: Brian Kenny crushing Dusty on Twitter

    Quote Originally Posted by VR View Post
    Unpossible, Davey Johnson is a far better manager than Dusty.
    i would take davey over dusty in a heartbeat.
    there's nothing like bowling a 300 game! 13 now and retired.


    Ricky henderson has a higher OBP than C. patterson and he's retired. C. Trent 6-14-2008

  13. #400
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Brian Kenny crushing Dusty on Twitter

    I think Dusty does some things well, some things poorly. But what I really want to see is the next guy arrive, how short the honeymoon will be, and how ravenous the wolves will become for that manager, too. The Reds will NEVER have a manager that doesn't have a toledodan calling for his head (not calling you out dan), or an EMAW vociferously defending him. ANY manager will always be a lightning rod that sparks and flares entirely independent of win-loss or any other metric.

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    toledodan (08-02-2013)

  15. #401
    GO XAVIER! toledodan's Avatar
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    Re: Brian Kenny crushing Dusty on Twitter

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    I think Dusty does some things well, some things poorly. But what I really want to see is the next guy arrive, how short the honeymoon will be, and how ravenous the wolves will become for that manager, too. The Reds will NEVER have a manager that doesn't have a toledodan calling for his head (not calling you out dan), or an EMAW vociferously defending him. ANY manager will always be a lightning rod that sparks and flares entirely independent of win-loss or any other metric.
    i agree jake. my problem with dusty is he doesn't think outside of the box when the team is losing. he is so old school and by the book and bristles if you even question him.
    there's nothing like bowling a 300 game! 13 now and retired.


    Ricky henderson has a higher OBP than C. patterson and he's retired. C. Trent 6-14-2008

  16. #402
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Brian Kenny crushing Dusty on Twitter

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    The Nats have 3 guys with a .350+ OBP. 5 with a .320+. 6 with a .310+.

    Washington is the only team in baseball with a worse #2 OBP than Cincy, sitting at .272.

    Someone has been hitting there. And likely not the guys named Harper, Zimmerman and Werth for the most part.
    Yes, but that doesn't address my primary point. The manager is making his decision on what the player is likely to do moving forward. Dusty apparently had faith that Cozart, despite his career low OBP and crappy OBP in 2013, would start to get on base more. There was no real basis for this belief.

    At minimum, Davey's two preferred options have excellent career OBPs. Dusty's preferred option (BP) has a mediocre one and his #2 option (Cozart) has a horrible one. Davey's use of Lombardozzi is definitely questionable. However, int he context of this conversation, the critique of Dusty is about a long-standing pattern of behavior, reinforced by his decisions this year. Davey Johnson has no such track record historically and has made more defensible decisions this year.

    Here's who Davey has used as his starters batting 2nd:
    Code:
    Player		Games	2012	2013	Career
    Rendon		26	  NA	.306	.306	(.408 career minor league OBP)	
    Werth		25	.387	.374	.363
    Lombardozzi	22	.317	.257	.293
    Desmond		14	.335	.331	.316
    Bernadina	 9	.372	.250	.311
    Harper	 	 6	.340	.327	.250
    Espinosa	 4	.315	.193	.303
    Kobernus	 2	  NA	.321	.321	(.324 career minor league OBP, .363 2013)
    Here's who Dusty has used as his starters batting 2nd:
    Code:
    Player		Games	2012	2013	Career
    Cozart		63	.288	.271	.282
    Heisey		15	.315	.270	.309
    Choo		 9	.373	.418	.386
    Robinson	 9	  NA	.335	.335	(.321 career minor league OBP)
    Izturis		 7	.254	.250	.293
    Paul		 5	.379	.338	.315
    Phillips	 1	.321	.313	.321
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  17. #403
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Brian Kenny crushing Dusty on Twitter

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    You misread me. I said he shouldn't bat near the top of the lineup. I didn't say #2 spot.
    The leadoff batter isn't "near" the top of the lineup. It is the top of the lineup. So, it's easy to see how he thought you were talking about Cozart batting in the No. 2 spot ... since that's how you wrote it.

  18. #404
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Brian Kenny crushing Dusty on Twitter

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey View Post
    The leadoff batter isn't "near" the top of the lineup. It is the top of the lineup. So, it's easy to see how he thought you were talking about Cozart batting in the No. 2 spot ... since that's how you wrote it.
    If you try really, really hard, you could read it that way. But, he knew what I meant when I said it because we had the exact same conversation in a different thread where I said the same exact thing. Brutus may have forgotten that, but I doubt it since he brought up that thread and he is a pretty smart guy.

  19. #405
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Brian Kenny crushing Dusty on Twitter

    Man you guys can pee a long time. Lol

    Has anyone changed their stance on anything after there 400 posts?

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    wlf WV (08-02-2013)


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