Turn Off Ads?
Page 38 of 62 FirstFirst ... 2834353637383940414248 ... LastLast
Results 556 to 570 of 917

Thread: Ohio State Football 2013

  1. #556
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Upstate New York
    Posts
    1,735

    Re: Ohio State Football 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Care to break it down how that happens?
    Only way that happens is if Ohio State loses to Michigan State, which is very possible, based on what I've seen of Ohio State.
    "I talked to an advance scout that told me if Joey Votto and Albert Pujols were on the same team he'd advise his team to do the unthinkable...pitch around Votto to get to Pujols." - Buster Olney, ESPN

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #557
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Braintree, MA
    Posts
    2,085

    Re: Ohio State Football 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Care to break it down how that happens?
    I'd be surprised if Auburn does not pass OSU in the human polls tomorrow. I don't have the computers in front of me, so I ddont know how that looks, but Auburn over Mizzou would obviously work betterr in the computers than OSU over MSU.

    I suppose it's probably close, but I would be surprised to see the SEC get shut out if Auburn stays a one loss team.

  4. #558
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Jacksonville, FL
    Posts
    9,553

    Re: Ohio State Football 2013

    I'd be stunned to see Auburn pass OSU tomorrow.

  5. #559
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    Right Down Broadway
    Posts
    18,667

    Re: Ohio State Football 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    A good coach also puts weight in the current game variables into his decision making.

    If Florida State went for 2 against Idaho, would you say they only had 40-45 percent chance of converting?

    If Wyoming went for 2 against Bama, still 40-45%?

    If you say yes, we have a difference of opinion, fine. If not, please explain why.
    Or have I stopped beating my wife yet? Silliness and argumentative. I already admitted that Hoke wasn't worrying about the historical success rate in his decision making, but you asserted that any 2 point conversion had a better success rate than you supposed the OT win % was, which I guess you totally swagged at 50%. Now you're questioning some data that is pretty clear because it doesn't agree with your original false premise. I doubted that it was that high, which is why I went and looked it up, and sho nuff...
    Can't win with 'em

    Can't win without 'em

  6. #560
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    Right Down Broadway
    Posts
    18,667

    Re: Ohio State Football 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by JaxRed View Post
    I'd be stunned to see Auburn pass OSU tomorrow.
    At this stage, it would seriously bring into question any integrity in the process, both currently and historically. Obviously it has flaws, but at least this flawed process has never done what it would mean if Auburn jumped a major conference undefeated team, regardless of real or perceived flaws with the undefeated major conference undefeated team. Yes, OSU's D sucks, but they are still undefeated and Auburn isn't, and now neither is the team they beat.
    Can't win with 'em

    Can't win without 'em

  7. #561
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    8,037

    Re: Ohio State Football 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    Or have I stopped beating my wife yet? Silliness and argumentative. I already admitted that Hoke wasn't worrying about the historical success rate in his decision making, but you asserted that any 2 point conversion had a better success rate than you supposed the OT win % was, which I guess you totally swagged at 50%. Now you're questioning some data that is pretty clear because it doesn't agree with your original false premise. I doubted that it was that high, which is why I went and looked it up, and sho nuff...
    But your data doesn't cover everything in regards to today's specific game.

    The odds of going to overtime are historically 50/50 for each team. But anyone watching the Boise State/Oklahoma classic awhile back knew the odds were in Oklahoma's favor in OT. You just can't use historical data as a catch all in each scenario.

    Both offenses today were playing better than the historical norm, but you refuse to acknowledge that or answer any of my totally fair questions. Yes I "swagged" that number, but you brought your data into in and don't want to answer any questions about it I guess.

  8. #562
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    Right Down Broadway
    Posts
    18,667

    Re: Ohio State Football 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    But your data doesn't cover everything in regards to today's specific game.

    The odds of going to overtime are historically 50/50 for each team. But anyone watching the Boise State/Oklahoma classic awhile back knew the odds were in Oklahoma's favor in OT. You just can't use historical data as a catch all in each scenario.

    Both offenses today were playing better than the historical norm, but you refuse to acknowledge that or answer any of my totally fair questions. Yes I "swagged" that number, but you brought your data into in and don't want to answer any questions about it I guess.
    I think with the number of events the historical percentage represents, any variables have been flushed out. Plus, the range is pretty small from decade to decade. I'll leave it to your desire to chase the rabbit further to come up with a swag for the probability of a successful conversion for this particular game. You have one failed event for your data pool, so we know its less than 100%. Happy algorithm hunting!

    BTW, this seems to be the same rabbit trail that folks want to travel with win probability theory for baseball games. I'll pass traveling further down it. Say hi to Alice for me.
    Last edited by traderumor; 11-30-2013 at 09:30 PM.
    Can't win with 'em

    Can't win without 'em

  9. #563
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    8,037

    Re: Ohio State Football 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    I think with the number of events the historical percentage represents, any variables have been flushed out. Plus, the range is pretty small from decade to decade. I'll leave it to your desire to chase the rabbit further to come up with a swag for the probability of a successful conversion for this particular game. You have one failed event for your data pool, so we know its less than 100%. Happy algorithm hunting!

    BTW, this seems to be the same rabbit trail that folks want to travel with win probability theory for baseball games. I'll pass traveling further down it. Say hi to Alice for me.
    I feel like you are insulting me and being condescending here with your Alice remark. I have done nothing but ask respectful questions after my leading post saying "I think..."

    So was it something I said that you are taking the wrong way?

  10. #564
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Posts
    2,198

    Re: Ohio State Football 2013

    Michigan fan here… Going for 2 was the correct call… You can't limp into OT with a punter as your kicker, and a defense that can't slow the running game. You weren't even supposed to be in the position to have a shot to win this game with under 30 seconds left. Play to win NOW…


    Now for the play call… Not sure why Butt wasn't on the field (pretty sure he wasn't), and why it wasn't designed to go to one of the TE's… That was your play.
    2010 Mock Draft Selections (picking for Rays)

    Bryce Brentz
    Brandon Workman
    Kris Bryant
    Matt Lipka
    Rick Hague

  11. #565
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    8,037

    Re: Ohio State Football 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by REDblooded View Post
    Michigan fan here… Going for 2 was the correct call… You can't limp into OT with a punter as your kicker, and a defense that can't slow the running game. You weren't even supposed to be in the position to have a shot to win this game with under 30 seconds left. Play to win NOW…


    Now for the play call… Not sure why Butt wasn't on the field (pretty sure he wasn't), and why it wasn't designed to go to one of the TE's… That was your play.
    I thought it was a no-brainer to throw to Butt also, or at least make him your first look.

  12. #566
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Posts
    2,198

    Re: Ohio State Football 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I thought it was a no-brainer to throw to Butt also, or at least make him your first look.
    Just watched again… wasn't on the field. The only players running routes were Dileo, Gallon, and Funchess…

    I would have gone 4 wide with Funchess and Butt on opposite sides with Dileo and Gallon also on the field.
    2010 Mock Draft Selections (picking for Rays)

    Bryce Brentz
    Brandon Workman
    Kris Bryant
    Matt Lipka
    Rick Hague

  13. #567
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    8,037

    Re: Ohio State Football 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by REDblooded View Post
    Just watched again… wasn't on the field. The only players running routes were Dileo, Gallon, and Funchess…

    I would have gone 4 wide with Funchess and Butt on opposite sides with Dileo and Gallon also on the field.
    I didn't really breakdown the play with mutpiple looks but my first thought was that the QB was locked into his first read, hell or high water. And it was right into a high traffic area, not like a fade to the corner into isolated coverage.

  14. #568
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    Right Down Broadway
    Posts
    18,667

    Re: Ohio State Football 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I feel like you are insulting me and being condescending here with your Alice remark. I have done nothing but ask respectful questions after my leading post saying "I think..."

    So was it something I said that you are taking the wrong way?
    I did not see the examples you used as being fair questions, my response was intended to convey that I considered your questions to be so much chasing rabbits, and quite honestly, I was giving you credit for understanding how probability works and considered you to be just yanking my chain. I'm sorry you were offended by my sarcastic attempt at humor.

    I disagree that the probability changes because of the high scoring nature of the game in the same way that a one run game is a one run game in baseball win probability, the actual score of the game is moot. Also, I do not think that looking at the matchup is at all relevant to get a feel for the overall probability of a successful, game winning two point conversion. It is reasonable to consider the success rate for a two point conversion under normal circumstances. So, if Idaho has hung with Florida St. to where it comes down to a game winning two point conversion, then the overall conversion rate is a valid benchmark. If in all the games ever played in NCAA, two point conversions are successful 40-45% of the time, then it applies here. To be honest, isn't that Statistics 101?
    Can't win with 'em

    Can't win without 'em

  15. #569
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    8,037

    Re: Ohio State Football 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    If in all the games ever played in NCAA, two point conversions are successful 40-45% of the time, then it applies here. To be honest, isn't that Statistics 101?
    I don't have all the data I need or know how to collect it, so if you want to declare victory on that front, sure.

    I know that in the history of college football teams are slightly more likely to fail a two point conversion rather than make it. Yet there are times where I feel (with nothing to back it up) the teams involved, momentum, and unique game conditions shift those odds to be in favor of converting. I felt that way today.

    And I am on the Saber side of things with baseball...so please don't conflate me with the "old school" baseball crowd (if that's what you were going for). But as of right now, I think there still is room for "educated" gut decisions in football.

  16. #570
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Jacksonville, FL
    Posts
    9,553

    Re: Ohio State Football 2013

    Why don't you guys start a thread and discuss this there. This is an Ohio State thread.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25