Choo and Votto

[wheels]

That's the old Cincinnati mantra, isnt it? The Reds are small market, can't afford that kind of player. We've heard that for years, but Castellini seems to not follow that line of thinking.

Choo's age is a factor, and who really knows what his salary demands will be, but my gut tells me that he's a fan favorite and he seems happy here. I haven't seen a guy get quite as much of a warm welcome from the usually surly, crabby Reds fan base (Especially someone from another country) as Choo.

Ludwick is a sunk cost, unfortunately, and I really don't expect much of a contribution from him going forward. I imagine a lot will be riding on what he can do to help the club down the stretch. His performance could very well foment what the plan will be in the outfield for 2014.

Hamilton clearly isn't ready (will he ever be?), Ludwick may very well be a part timer....So who's left? Paul/Heisey, Robinson, Bruce.

They may have no choice but to sign Choo.

[jojo]

Choo's age is a factor, and who really knows what his salary demands will be, but my gut tells me that he's a fan favorite and he seems happy here. I haven't seen a guy get quite as much of a warm welcome from the usually surly, crabby Reds fan base (Especially someone from another country) as Choo.

This is pretty much the issue. Walt could make a completely sound decision to let Choo walk that has nothing to do with a cap on payroll.

If someone offers Choo an insane deal, Walt should walk away. But I think there is debate/discussion in the FO concerning making Choo a competitive deal to keep him.

[mth123]

That's the old Cincinnati mantra, isnt it? The Reds are small market, can't afford that kind of player. We've heard that for years, but Castellini seems to not follow that line of thinking.

Choo's age is a factor, and who really knows what his salary demands will be, but my gut tells me that he's a fan favorite and he seems happy here. I haven't seen a guy get quite as much of a warm welcome from the usually surly, crabby Reds fan base (Especially someone from another country) as Choo.

Ludwick is a sunk cost, unfortunately, and I really don't expect much of a contribution from him going forward. I imagine a lot will be riding on what he can do to help the club down the stretch. His performance could very well foment what the plan will be in the outfield for 2014.

Hamilton clearly isn't ready (will he ever be?), Ludwick may very well be a part timer....So who's left? Paul/Heisey, Robinson, Bruce.

They may have no choice but to sign Choo.

A stopgap who doesn't require a $60 Million commitment when the rest of the team is already due raises totaling $35 Million. It's why I'd like to see a deal for some one now who can be inurance against Ludwick being a non-factor and could share much of that job with Heisey next year.

The Reds aren't going to get any kind of team friendly deal from Choo no matter how much he likes it here. He's chosen Scott Boras as his agent and that tells me he's going to be after top dollar. I'm guessing he'll be manning RF for the Yankees is 2014.

[wheels]

This is pretty much the issue. Walt could make a completely sound decision to let Choo walk that has nothing to do with a cap on payroll.

If someone offers Choo an insane deal, Walt should walk away. But I think there is debate/discussion in the FO concerning making Choo a competitive deal to keep him.

You put it more succinctly than I did.

[wheels]

A stopgap who doesn't require a $60 Million commitment when the rest of the team is already due raises totaling $35 Million. It's why I'd like to see a deal for some one now who can be inurance against Ludwick being a non-factor and could share much of that job with Heisey next year.

The Reds aren't going to get any kind of team friendly deal from Choo no matter how much he likes it here. He's chosen Scott Boras as his agent and that tells me he's going to be after top dollar. I'm guessing he'll be manning RF for the Yankees is 2014.

Yeah. A trade that helps the cause next year would be the optimal scenario, but we don't know what the Castellinis are thinking about regarding the payroll ceiling.

[mth123]

Yeah. A trade that helps the cause next year would be the optimal scenario, but we don't know what the Castellinis are thinking about regarding the payroll ceiling.

You're right, I don't know, but too keep all those guys it's going over $150 Millon. I'm going to assume it won't happen. If that assumption is correct, I could only see Choo coming back if the Reds deal Bailey, Cueto or Leake for a minor leaguer or two and require the other team to take Ludwick or Broxton as part of the deal. Even that would require keeing Arroyo or signing similar guy as well and won't stop the payroll from rising by at least 15%.

[wheels]

You're right, I don't know, but too keep all those guys it's going over $150 Millon. I'm going to assume it won't happen. If that assumption is correct, I could only see Choo coming back if the Reds deal Bailey, Cueto or Leake for a minor leaguer or two and require the other team to take Ludwick or Broxton as part of the deal. Even that would require keeing Arroyo or signing similar guy as well and won't stop the payroll from rising by at least 15%.

I'm in agreement with your logic, to be sure.

Maybe I'm overestimating the unpredictable nature of roster jockeying. Maybe I'm becoming accustomed to things like the Votto, Bruce, Cueto, and Phillips signs, along with the Latos deal.

Good things have been happening with players I like in the offseason. I'm spoiled.

[mth123]

I'm in agreement with your logic, to be sure.

Maybe I'm overestimating the unpredictable nature of roster jockeying. Maybe I'm becoming accustomed to things like the Votto, Bruce, Cueto, and Phillips signs, along with the Latos deal.

Good things have been happening with players I like in the offseason. I'm spoiled.

Votto's deal was different His extension actually lowers his cost for the first few years. Bruce and Cueto were bargains for the team. Phillips was a surprise, but there was really nobody on the horizon to replace him. Choo was basically added for free this year because Walt got Ludwick to defer $4.5 Million of his 2013 salary in the form of his option buy-out at the end of next season, he got the Indians to pony-up $3 Million towards his cost and unloading Stubbs cost basically offset the rest of his salary. Next year the $3 Million is gone, that $4.5 Million that was deferred comes back double as he goes back to his regular salary for 2014 and then pays out the 2013 portion that was deferred. Chapman has reached arb status which converts next year's salary to a signing bonus and then the team needs to go to arb with him on top of it. Bailey and Leake are having strong seasons and will get big raises in arb. Unless the team moves out some other key stuff, they'd need to be among the top payroll teams to keep Choo who is going to probably increase his salary by 75% or so. I'd love it if the Reds can find a way to keep him without wrecking the rest of the team, but if keeping him means opening holes in the rotation or being forced to move Bruce to fit his salary on the roster, I'd rather just find another stopgap.

This doesn't even address the out years when Votto's salary starts climbing toward it's eventual $25 Million and Choo starts to age (he'll turn 32 three months into his new deal). I think the payroll will definitely go up significantly with new TV money, but I think most of it is already spent. Keeping Choo and/or Arroyo sounds great, but it means getting rid of a salary or two and I don't see a savior coming along to take the bad deals. It will be some one who hurts that will need to go.

[wheels]

Votto's deal was different His extension actually lowers his cost for the first few years. Bruce and Cueto were bargains for the team. Phillips was a surprise, but there was really nobody on the horizon to replace him. Choo was basically added for free this year because Walt got Ludwick to defer $4.5 Million of his 2013 salary in the form of his option buy-out at the end of next season, he got the Indians to pony-up $3 Million towards his cost and unloading Stubbs cost basically offset the rest of his salary. Next year the $3 Million is gone, that $4.5 Million that was deferred comes back double as he goes back to his regular salary for 2014 and then pays out the 2013 portion that was deferred. Chapman has reached arb status which converts next year's salary to a signing bonus and then the team needs to go to arb with him on top of it. Bailey and Leake are having strong seasons and will get big raises in arb. Unless the team moves out some other key stuff, they'd need to be among the top payroll teams to keep Choo who is going to probably increase his salary by 75% or so. I'd love it if the Reds can find a way to keep him without wrecking the rest of the team, but if keeping him means opening holes in the rotation or being forced to move Bruce to fit his salary on the roster, I'd rather just find another stopgap.

This doesn't even address the out years when Votto's salary starts climbing toward it's eventual $25 Million and Choo starts to age (he'll turn 32 three months into his new deal). I think the payroll will definitely go up significantly with new TV money, but I think most of it is already spent. Keeping Choo and/or Arroyo sounds great, but it means getting rid of a salary or two and I don't see a savior coming along to take the bad deals. It will be some one who hurts that will need to go.

They would definitely be able to justify letting both of the big free agents walk.

[757690]

One thing that's could work in the Reds favor is that the free agents last year who were given a qualifying offer and turned it down, all had trouble getting the contracts they wanted, especially in terms of years. It still will be tough to sign Choo, but he might like it in Cincy and realize he's not get get much more on the open market.

[New York Red]

They are so amazing that it is SUPER disappointing how little they (or at least Votto) are appreciated in Reds Country. People don't know what they are missing, especially those with a voice that resonates across the air ways.

This is a joke, right?