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Thread: How do you Rank the OF in the Reds System?

  1. #1
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    How do you Rank the OF in the Reds System?

    The OF, while not offering much to help when the Reds lost guys in 2013, suddenly looks like a pretty deep pipeline. Maybe I'm looking through reds colored glasses, but it seems like a pretty decent group of guys who may play a role in the majors some day. How would you rank them?

    A Baker's dozen

    1. Billy Hamilton (not sure he's still at the top, but I'm not ready to buck all the experts who put him among the top 50 prospects in baseball)
    2. Jesse Winker - Guy is going to hit IMO.
    3. Phil Ervin - All Around good player
    4. Yorman Rodriguez - Tools aplenty
    5. Junior Arias - Power, Speed. Defense will come IMO.
    6. Donald Lutz - Big Time Power and more athletic than people think
    7. Juan Silva - Still Young and Starting to get it
    8. Jonathon Reynoso - More Tools and could be a lot higher
    9. Kyle Waldrop - Seems like he's always on the verge of taking the next step. Lots of extra base pop.
    10. Jeff Gelalich - Too Soon to give up on a sandwich pick
    11. Gabriel Rosa - A move to the OF may unlock his bat. Seeing flashes this year.
    12. Juan Duran - there was a reason for that big bonus, but I wonder if a move to 1B would be better.
    13. Ryan Lamarre - Speed, defense still hoping the light goes on.

    Others:

    Older guys who may fill bench roles: Denis Phipps, Felix Perez, Josh Fellhauer, Bryson Smith

    Unknowns who show some potential: Kevin Garcia, Aristedes Aquino, Jon Matthews, Dalton Carter
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: How do you Rank the OF in the Reds System?

    I don't have too many gripes with your list, but for me Ervin is ahead of Winker, just for defense, and baserunning. That said I really like Winker, and think/hope he can be the future LF.(or DH if the NL goes that way)

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: How do you Rank the OF in the Reds System?

    Quote Originally Posted by PepperJack View Post
    I don't have too many gripes with your list, but for me Ervin is ahead of Winker, just for defense, and baserunning. That said I really like Winker, and think/hope he can be the future LF.(or DH if the NL goes that way)
    Thanks for the feedback. I generally like to see success at full season ball so Winker gets the nod for now.

    Do you still think Hamilton should be number 1? I generally prefer power guys and figure speed guys have a lot to make-up for with their baserunning, but I just hate to go so against the national hype at this point. Even if Hamilton tops out and becomes the second coming of Willie Wilson, I'm not sure that's better than a guy who may hit .280/.350/.450/.800. I think those numbers seem reasonable to this point for Winker and hopefully a number of others on this list. Not sure I ever see Hamilton slugging .450 and an .800 OPS is doubtful in his big league future. He will create havoc, but if he gets caught and picked-off in the process, it may not add as much as it seems. Might sell tickets though and that is worth a lot in allowing the team to afford other guys.
    Last edited by mth123; 07-26-2013 at 08:36 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: How do you Rank the OF in the Reds System?

    I'm still hopeful on Hamilton, and willing to give him the benefit of doubt for now because he has made the adjustment to each level so far. That said I would be surprised if he has an OPS over 750 at any point, and this AAA program of coaching him to just keep it on the ground may have gotten into his head. I wish they would have let him do whatever he was doing last year, he never seemed to be going for power to me anyway.

    I love Winker's plate approach and believe it will serve him very well on the way up. I hope both he and Ervin start next year in Bakersfield.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: How do you Rank the OF in the Reds System?

    The top four are in a group of their own and the gap to the next set of guys is rather huge IMO.

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: How do you Rank the OF in the Reds System?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    The top four are in a group of their own and the gap to the next set of guys is rather huge IMO.
    Agreed though I wonder about Arias joining the group. Thing is, the guys in the middle of the list look like possibilities as long term role players. A guy like Lutz could be a 300 PA righty killer or a guy like Silva being one of those all around 4th OF who isn't terrible at anything with Angel Pagan-like upside. I wonder most about Reynoso. BA seemed to like him a lot.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: How do you Rank the OF in the Reds System?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Agreed though I wonder about Arias joining the group. Thing is, the guys in the middle of the list look like possibilities as long term role players. A guy like Lutz could be a 300 PA righty killer or a guy like Silva being one of those all around 4th OF who isn't terrible at anything with Angel Pagan-like upside. I wonder most about Reynoso. BA seemed to like him a lot.
    From a pure tools standpoint, Arias belongs. From an execution standpoint, not a chance. 1 walk and 26 strikeouts in Bakersfield so far. He will chase breaking balls all day long.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: How do you Rank the OF in the Reds System?

    Am I crazy for wanting to rank Winker and Ervin above Hamilton? I'm just really worried that he's a Willy Taveras, Juan Pierre, Brian Hunter, Rajai Davis type whose lack of power prevents him from ever being more than just a sometimes useful role player.

    I could see him having one or two BABIP friendly years where he's above average, but otherwise, he seems like a role player to me.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: How do you Rank the OF in the Reds System?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Am I crazy for wanting to rank Winker and Ervin above Hamilton? I'm just really worried that he's a Willy Taveras, Juan Pierre, Brian Hunter, Rajai Davis type whose lack of power prevents him from ever being more than just a sometimes useful role player.

    I could see him having one or two BABIP friendly years where he's above average, but otherwise, he seems like a role player to me.
    Not at all. I want to rank them above him too. I just decided to defer to him being ranked as a top 50 prospect pretty much everywhere and in some cases even after his slow start at AAA.

    As I said earlier, even if everything goes right, he's probably Willie Wilson and an .800 OPS bat is more valuable than that IMO.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: How do you Rank the OF in the Reds System?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Am I crazy for wanting to rank Winker and Ervin above Hamilton? I'm just really worried that he's a Willy Taveras, Juan Pierre, Brian Hunter, Rajai Davis type whose lack of power prevents him from ever being more than just a sometimes useful role player.

    I could see him having one or two BABIP friendly years where he's above average, but otherwise, he seems like a role player to me.
    Crazy, no.

    I think he has more power than Taveras or Pierre. Not that it is saying much, but it is better than those guys if he can figure out the actual hitting part.

    Hamilton just brings so much value with his defense and base running (steals and just base running) that he doesn't need to hit much. If he can be a .315 OBP guy and slug .380, he will easily be starter material. Of course that would come along with him batting leadoff and that would stink, but that isn't on him.

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    Re: How do you Rank the OF in the Reds System?

    I'd rank Ervin and Winker above Hamilton. A lot depends on whether the Reds try to force Billy onto the big club too quick, He likely needs another full year at AAA to really develop and the pressure will be on to bring him up just for his speed. What we may actually see is all three being ready at nearly the same time. This would allow Ervin and Winker to play alongside Jay with Billy playing a 4th OFer/pinch runner role, at least at first.

    The 2nd 4 of the group are possible 4th-5th OFers, maybe a year or two as starters, while the first 4 are probable starters someday, with Yorman being a tweener - the bridge between the groups. Lotsa tools, like Arias, but also some holes but better overall results than Junior.That's not a knock since this time last year I'd have had him in the last group just for his tools without much hope he'd really turn into anything. Maybe Reynoso and Arias can replicate that improvement. Arias' problem with slow stuff, though, has buried many a good hitting prospect. Reynoso is young and more of an unknown so he's hard to judge, for me, anyway. Lutz and Waldrop could be useful as power hitters off the bench someday.

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: How do you Rank the OF in the Reds System?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    I'd rank Ervin and Winker above Hamilton. A lot depends on whether the Reds try to force Billy onto the big club too quick, He likely needs another full year at AAA to really develop and the pressure will be on to bring him up just for his speed. What we may actually see is all three being ready at nearly the same time. This would allow Ervin and Winker to play alongside Jay with Billy playing a 4th OFer/pinch runner role, at least at first.

    The 2nd 4 of the group are possible 4th-5th OFers, maybe a year or two as starters, while the first 4 are probable starters someday, with Yorman being a tweener - the bridge between the groups. Lotsa tools, like Arias, but also some holes but better overall results than Junior.That's not a knock since this time last year I'd have had him in the last group just for his tools without much hope he'd really turn into anything. Maybe Reynoso and Arias can replicate that improvement. Arias' problem with slow stuff, though, has buried many a good hitting prospect. Reynoso is young and more of an unknown so he's hard to judge, for me, anyway. Lutz and Waldrop could be useful as power hitters off the bench someday.
    I think this is right. I see Lutz and Waldrop as Bernie Carbo types. Lefty pop who hit against RHP, not enough defense to play CF. Both are probably better defenders. Platoon them with a guy like Gomes and that could be pretty productive, but I recognize that is probably best case and they could fall way short of that.

    What does everyone think of Silva? I'm intrigued by his progress but not sure if it's real. He has the speed and defense to be a very useful player if he can maintain a decent BA and OBP. Jim Eisenreich or Angel Pagan come to mind, but I don't know if that's right.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: How do you Rank the OF in the Reds System?

    The one thing that has been consistent about Silva is his ability to take a walk. I like him and think he needs to cut back on his K's. I'd like to see what he can do with 500 AB's, and he is only 21.

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    Re: How do you Rank the OF in the Reds System?

    Just for an outside perspective, Mayo updated his top 100 as well as his top 20 for each team:http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/


    Looking through his rankings gives us this group of outfielders:

    1-Billy Hamilton
    2-Phil Ervin
    3-Jesse Winker
    4-Ryan LaMarre
    5-Yorman Rodriguez
    6-Gabriel Rosa
    7-Jeff Gelalich

    So quite different than I believe any of our rankings would be. Also of note he still has Sean Buckley in his top 10 of Reds prospects, and he was rumored to have at least tried LF.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: How do you Rank the OF in the Reds System?

    Ryan LaMarre, age 24, at AA this year: .667 OPS
    Yorman Rodriguez, age 20, at AA this year: .726 OPS

    I just don't buy that the rankings were updated. The draft picks may have been added in, but I don't believe for a second that anything beyond that was done to the team rankings.

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