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Thread: Just my advice: sell high on Puig

  1. #1
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Just my advice: sell high on Puig

    Let me preface this by saying I think Puig does have some impressive traits. His throwing arm is at worst a 7 on the 2/8 scale. And I think his power is legit. That said, if one reconstructs his splits based on peripherals, he becomes only marginally better than average. I will also qualify that we still have a very limited sample for Puig, so all of these rates are subject to drastic change. But if you are a proud fantasy owner of Puig, I might tempt you to sell high.

    Right now, he's living off of a ridiculous .465 BABIP despite a very alarming 4.7-1 K:BB rate. That kind of split would make it very difficult for him to stay as a regular in this league, let alone be considered the greatest thing since sliced bread.

    Within that BABIP, he is certainly earning some of it. His LD rate is 25% and he's hitting a lot of grounders too. And one quarter of his fly balls have left the yard. Nonetheless, his xBABIP is a much lower (but still very impressive) .347.

    Let's assume, for a moment, his double and triples rate stayed the same as well as the same number of balls leaving the yard. Here is what his line would look like if his BABIP matched his xBABIP:

    .289/.327/.444/.771

    If you think that his walk and strikeout ratios are going to improve, then by all means ride him out. He is, after all, very young and depending on the extent of your league (i.e. if it's a long-term keeper league), he could indeed blossom into a star.

    But right now, if I'm judging him based on the discipline rates and things under his control, his star is almost entirely based on the gratuitous 100 points of batting average in play that won't keep up. Otherwise, he's only a modest hitter with a great arm.

    I think the Puigmania is fun to watch, but a little out of sorts.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Cooper (07-28-2013)

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    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Just my advice: sell high on Puig

    Lol

    You mean you don't think Puig will be a lifetime .372 hitter? You don't think he'll be a career 1.009 OPS guy (7th all-time)

    I don't think he'll hit 700 HR

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    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Just my advice: sell high on Puig

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    Lol

    You mean you don't think Puig will be a lifetime .372 hitter? You don't think he'll be a career 1.009 OPS guy (7th all-time)

    I don't think he'll hit 700 HR
    All of those things certainly went without saying. But I'm going a step further and suggesting that if his discipline rates stay close to where they are now, not only will he not be legendary, so to speak, but he might not even be much more than a serviceable big leaguer.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: Just my advice: sell high on Puig

    You really guess that he will be a .444 slugging guy? There are 75 players now with a career slugging higher than that. Puig is very big and yes he's going to drop in production, likely a good bit.....but he's still learning also. Pitchers will adjust to him.....and in time he'll adjust back.


    Right before he won the game....George Grande is telling how baseball gets you back and all of a sudden pitchers are throwing you curveba......game over.

    Looking like a young Vlad, maybe end up young Jose Guillen.

    He's dropping slowly but he also improving that sample size thingy as he's doing it.

    He might be Yoenis Cespedes last year and next year might be him this year.....but I'm waiting on Cespedes the next 3 years.....might be perennial all-star and might be struggling to stay in the league.

    But the skill sets on these guys....Puig, Trout, Harper, Machado, Cespedes.....I love watching every one of them.they are so physically gifted and talented....the similar talents of the Mays, Mantle, Bonds, Griffey, Arod.....none of them may come close, but those are the talents necessary to possibly becoming those players.

  7. #5
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Just my advice: sell high on Puig

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    You really guess that he will be a .444 slugging guy? There are 75 players now with a career slugging higher than that. Puig is very big and yes he's going to drop in production, likely a good bit.....but he's still learning also. Pitchers will adjust to him.....and in time he'll adjust back.


    Right before he won the game....George Grande is telling how baseball gets you back and all of a sudden pitchers are throwing you curveba......game over.

    Looking like a young Vlad, maybe end up young Jose Guillen.

    He's dropping slowly but he also improving that sample size thingy as he's doing it.

    He might be Yoenis Cespedes last year and next year might be him this year.....but I'm waiting on Cespedes the next 3 years.....might be perennial all-star and might be struggling to stay in the league.

    But the skill sets on these guys....Puig, Trout, Harper, Machado, Cespedes.....I love watching every one of them.they are so physically gifted and talented....the similar talents of the Mays, Mantle, Bonds, Griffey, Arod.....none of them may come close, but those are the talents necessary to possibly becoming those players.
    I didn't really guess anything, just simply constructed what his hypothetical line would be with a normalized BABIP. His ISO right now is only .207 out of his .582 slugging. Give him a .289 average and a .207 ISO, and you've got a .496 slugging. But that assumes that his ISO wouldn't drop with a normalized BABIP (i.e. fewer doubles & triples as his average goes down). So yeah, I think a .440-.450 slugging isn't really that unrealistic to expect.

    Puig's swinging strike rate right now is an absurdly bad 18.9%. Just for context, Adam Dunn's worst season in the big leagues was 13.8%. Mark Reynolds' was 17.8%. Of all players with at least 200 PAs this year, Pedro Alvarez has the second worst rate, and that's over a full percent worse than Puig (17.7%). If I had to guess, perhaps his slugging could approach .500 because of sheer power, but at the moment he is a total and utter free swinger that has connected just enough to mask some serious holes.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Just my advice: sell high on Puig

    Yeah, to me he looks tremendously gifted but equally undisciplined right now. Thanks for running the numbers to back up my intuition.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: Just my advice: sell high on Puig

    Another possible type player.....Raul Mondesi

    Stupid that I forgot him...same team and position. Mondesi was unbelievable when he came up.....had a pretty good career but definitely not a great career.

  10. #8
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Just my advice: sell high on Puig

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    Another possible type player.....Raul Mondesi

    Stupid that I forgot him...same team and position. Mondesi was unbelievable when he came up.....had a pretty good career but definitely not a great career.
    That's a pretty good comp, especially given Mondesi also had a ridiculously impressive arm.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: Just my advice: sell high on Puig

    Can you give me the career BABIP for Hank Aaron, Reggie Jackson, Bo Jackson and Wily Mo Pena?

    Thanks if you choose to.

  12. #10
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Just my advice: sell high on Puig

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    Can you give me the career BABIP for Hank Aaron, Reggie Jackson, Bo Jackson and Wily Mo Pena?

    Thanks if you choose to.
    Aaron (.291)
    R. Jackson (.298)
    B. Jackson (.320)
    Pena (.320)
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Ironman92 (07-28-2013)

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    Re: Just my advice: sell high on Puig

    Sosa.

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    Re: Just my advice: sell high on Puig

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    Can you give me the career BABIP for Hank Aaron, Reggie Jackson, Bo Jackson and Wily Mo Pena?

    Thanks if you choose to.
    Brutus beat me to the punch.

    In "teach a man to fish" mode....www.baseball-reference.com is free and has more information than you can shake a stick at. It's easy to think you are going to spend 2 minutes there and look up 2 hours later.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

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    Re: Just my advice: sell high on Puig

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    That's a pretty good comp, especially given Mondesi also had a ridiculously impressive arm.
    Mondesi had that insane play towards the RF line where his body fell towards the line and he threw that ball home to astoundingly surprise the runner and maybe the whole stadium.....maybe a top 10 all-time throw.

    Sorry, but those that can do that stuff just are so exciting for me to watch. I played OF and simple things like watch that ball Puig caught in Game 1....off the bat and 1/2 way into the play it looked like a full extension dive was going to be needed to make the play.....but he hit another gear and caught it easily...almost head scratching.

    His arm is Francoeurian.

    He really reminds me of Bo....and Bo never got that good at baseball....but he was cut short and sports fans were cut short. I want another Bo....and if he only ends up being a .775 OPS guy, I hope he keeps doing crap no one else can do (Bo knows)


    I'm a little intrigued how you score him out as a .289 hitter because that average is way more closer to great than .444

    If he is a .289 guy.....I have to believe he's going to be at least a .490-.500 guy

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    Re: Just my advice: sell high on Puig

    Quote Originally Posted by Cooper View Post
    Sosa.
    Sosa didn't have what Puig has.....until he miraculously became an elite power hitter......but he has some of those characteristics.

  18. #15
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    Re: Just my advice: sell high on Puig

    Quote Originally Posted by dfs View Post
    Brutus beat me to the punch.

    In "teach a man to fish" mode....www.baseball-reference.com is free and has more information than you can shake a stick at. It's easy to think you are going to spend 2 minutes there and look up 2 hours later.
    I know....I live on there....but for other stats and purposes.

    Thanks though


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