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Thread: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

  1. #31
    Member RadfordVA's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by cincrazy View Post
    We complained for years that Bailey wasn't the pitcher we always thought he'd be. Now that he IS that very pitcher, many on the board want to trade him.

    I'm not pleased that our offense struggles as much as it does sometimes. But we've gone the "we can hit, but can't pitch route" before and we couldn't even nab a winning season. So I'll stockpile all the arms I can and take an average offense, because the game has changed, and pitching is the new name.
    The things is he took long to get there so now he will be pretty expensive to be that pitcher we wanted. Bailey's impact on the rest of the season is likely very minimal. One of these, possibly 2 of these starters that are having similar seasons is going to be left out of postseason rotation. So he is likely going to make 10 or 11 more starts. Probably not going to be the difference in making wild card or not compared to what thay can replace him with.

    Bailey is currently 10th on Reds in ERA+. If you can trade one of these starters who isn't going to help in playoffs and isn't signed past 2014 it would not be craziest thing in world. If you can get a player that will help in playoffs. Will not happen as I'm sure FO would be worried about upsetting chemistry and such.

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  3. #32
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    If I had a nickel for every trade idea proposed here that got us an exceptioanlly expensive and overpaid player I'd have enough to buy some of those fancy Canadian coffees.

    Andrus is the exact wrong type of player we should be going after. He's owed $120M.

    Trading Bailey if we can't sign him (or can't afford to sign him) for a young great pitching prospect or SS proepect is good thinking.

    But I'd rather give Bailey $120M than trade for and give it to Andrus.

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  5. #33
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by Razor Shines View Post
    Can't get on board with any of that. I don't even want to be near the station when that train of logic comes through .
    Well the whole first paragraph is true.

  6. #34
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    Well the whole first paragraph is true.
    Yes, yes it is. Lets come up with a better way to compare the two pitchers though.

  7. #35
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    If we trade Bailey to the Rangers, I'd want it to be for Profar. And after the season.
    Go BLUE!!!

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  9. #36
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by Red Swagger View Post
    Bailey for Profar and Scheppers
    Won't happen.

    They are looking for a bat. Period. They made their SP splash with Garza. They have Colby Lewis coming back. Harrison might be available in September,

    Cruz will be suspended by the end of the week.

    The Rangers do not need a Homer Bailey. They need a Jay Bruce.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  10. #37
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by Razor Shines View Post
    Yes, yes it is. Lets come up with a better way to compare the two pitchers though.
    The ultimate goal of pitching is to minimize runs.....all other by product stats may help predict the likelihood of things....but it also may not.

    When the game is on the line I trust Leake on the mound over Homer. There's a reason he skipped the minors with a 90 mph fastball....he gets it. Runners making it to 2nd and 3rd are when it matters the most. Leake has got it done all year.

    7+ innings and 4 or fewer hits this season....

    Homer 3
    Leake 7

    But yes, Leake is lucky because he has way fewer strikeouts and find 5 other stats that are "predictors".....if Homer had an era anywhere near Leake's you have a way better argument. Pitching is a lot mental...you taking Homer there? If Homer had Leake's pitching stuff and Leake had Homer's pitching stuff.....

    It's impressive that Homer is far stronger and better than he used to be and him throwing 98 mph in the 8th is fun to watch.....but I trust him the least of our current 5 (yet I do trust him a decent bit)

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  12. #38
    Bread Gloves Razor Shines's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    The ultimate goal of pitching is to minimize runs.....all other by product stats may help predict the likelihood of things....but it also may not.

    When the game is on the line I trust Leake on the mound over Homer. There's a reason he skipped the minors with a 90 mph fastball....he gets it. Runners making it to 2nd and 3rd are when it matters the most. Leake has got it done all year.

    7+ innings and 4 or fewer hits this season....

    Homer 3
    Leake 7

    But yes, Leake is lucky because he has way fewer strikeouts and find 5 other stats that are "predictors".....if Homer had an era anywhere near Leake's you have a way better argument. Pitching is a lot mental...you taking Homer there? If Homer had Leake's pitching stuff and Leake had Homer's pitching stuff.....

    It's impressive that Homer is far stronger and better than he used to be and him throwing 98 mph in the 8th is fun to watch.....but I trust him the least of our current 5 (yet I do trust him a decent bit)
    I'm taking Homer over Leake all the time. And I like Leake but Bailey has been a stud this season.

    I don't think Leake's success is all luck by any means but he has had some luck on his side and Bailey has been pretty unlucky. Missing bats is pretty important and Leake just can't do it at a very good rate.

    Homer's K rate is way better, HR rate is better. Walk rate and Hit rates are basically equal. And yes, Homer's FIP is way, way better than Leake.
    Last edited by Razor Shines; 07-30-2013 at 06:31 PM.

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  14. #39
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    If I am trading Homer it would be to the Sox for Xander Bogarts or possibly to the Dodgers for Kemp + money. I doubt the Dodgers do that however.

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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    If I am trading Homer it would be to the Sox for Xander Bogarts or possibly to the Dodgers for Kemp + money. I doubt the Dodgers do that however.
    I'd do either of those deals.

    The Bailey-for-Profar deal makes more sense in the offseason for both teams. Reds need Bailey for the stretch and Im nit sure how much of an upgrade Profar would be over Cozart for THIS year. Rangers need a bat now but might need an arm in the offseason if Garza leaves via FA. Bailey could be a perfect fit and might give more of a discount on an extension with them given his affinity for Texas.
    Go BLUE!!!

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  17. #41
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by Razor Shines View Post
    I'm taking Homer over Leake all the time. And I like Leake but Bailey has been a stud this season.

    I don't think Leake's success is all luck by any means but he has had some luck on his side and Bailey has been pretty unlucky. Missing bats is pretty important and Leake just can't do it at a very good rate.

    Homer's K rate is way better, HR rate is better. Walk rate and Hit rates are basically equal. And yes, Homer's FIP is way, way better than Leake.
    Yeah....identical WHIP, but what is the stat that measures how focused a guy can stay out there, not tighten up a bit, not let the sucky ump affect you, not letting a cruddy play bother your performance and flat out the focus of buckling down when it matters most? (Hideous sentence I know).....those ARE factors in pitching and fairly significant ones.....ones that might show how a guy with average stuff can skip the minors at a young age and how a guy with stud starter stuff doesn't have a good season until he's 26.....it's part of the game. Nolan Ryan is my favorite pitcher of all-time, but he's not real close to being the greatest pitcher of all time.

  18. #42
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    In the playoffs we will obviously face teams over .500, Homer doesn't have a win against a team that is currently over .500

    His 5 wins are against teams that are a combined 56 games under .500, while I completely realize he's pitched well enough to keep us in most every game but at some point this season it's impossible to believe he hasn't win a few.....maybe he's incredibly unlucky. If he's that unlucky I don't want him out there over the high karma guys...

    But again, he has had a very good year and I really do trust him, but I trust the other 4 as well at least as much and also Cueto of course.

  19. #43
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    Yeah....identical WHIP, but what is the stat that measures how focused a guy can stay out there, not tighten up a bit, not let the sucky ump affect you, not letting a cruddy play bother your performance and flat out the focus of buckling down when it matters most? (Hideous sentence I know).....those ARE factors in pitching and fairly significant ones.....ones that might show how a guy with average stuff can skip the minors at a young age and how a guy with stud starter stuff doesn't have a good season until he's 26.....it's part of the game. Nolan Ryan is my favorite pitcher of all-time, but he's not real close to being the greatest pitcher of all time.
    I have no idea what Nolan Ryan has to do with the rest of this post.

  20. #44
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    Ballsy trade for both sides (that neither side would do in the real world) but worth discussing in a hypothetical:

    Homer Bailey and Billy Hamilton for Jacoby Ellsbury and Xander Bogaerts

    Reds throw Latos, Leake and either Cueto or Cingrani in Games 1-3. Arroyo if they need a 4th starter. Meanwhile they get a CF rental who helps at the top of the lineup and their SS for the next 5 years (one could debate whether he's an improvement this year or not). And they free up payroll (Ellsbury is just a rental) to possibly extend Latos and/or make a qualifying offer to Arroyo...or to sign (or trade Cozart for) a CF stopgap for 2 years until Ervin or Yorman is ready.

    Sox get a dominant pitcher for the home stretch this year and all of next year (which they are currently seeking). They ship out one fan favorite in Ellsbury who is in his walk year but replace him with a potential fan favorite for years to come in Hamilton.

    Discuss.
    Last edited by Benihana; 07-30-2013 at 10:11 PM.
    Go BLUE!!!

  21. #45
    Member Playadlc's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    There is zero chance Boston trades Bogaerts.

    I do like the trade, though.
    DLC11@Insightbb.com


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