The Reds should probably pursue a deal in the offseason similar to the Shields/Myers trade that the Rays made with KC. Right now, the Reds only have 5 starters and there is no way Bailey should be traded during the season.
"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH
Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS
Yeah Bailey didn't have a really good season until he was 26, last year and he's going to have an even better year this season. Leake still hasn't had a season as good as Bailey did in 2012 and he won't match it this year either.
I value Leake's instincts. I like that he's a "baseball player", you get the feeling that he'd be valuable whatever position he is playing because he makes plays, but Bailey has flat out been better.
Would Bailey for Asdrubal Cabrera be a good fit?
Sabermetrics can be boiled down to this simple truism: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.
Trade Idea - Involving Bailey
Idea is don't trade Bailey. That is all.
99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
Bailey CYA winner
Hamilton ROY & GG
Nice outing for Bailey, I guess. It's not like it counts San Diego isn't a playoff team so everyone knows they're out there laying down for Bailey.
3 year total
Leake 30-22, 482.1, 3.77 ERA, 5.5 WAR (BR) - Leake career .600 OPS
Bailey 27-27, 476 IP, 3.91 ERA, 4.7 WAR (BR) - Bailey career .368 OPS
Not sure how you think Leake won't match Bailey's year last year when he's allowing a full run less than Bailey did. Remember FIP what you'll most likely do - ERA what you have done.
Whether you believe in clutch play or not... Leake is just a lot better in clutch situations, maybe Leake just is better out of the stretch, and Bailey is much worse, but this is a big reason in my eyes as to why Leake consistantly outperforms FIP and Bailey consistently underperforms as compared to FIP.
High Leverage PA's
Leake 422 High Lev. PA out of 2610 Total (16.2%),High Leverage OPS+ against 93
2 outs RISP OPS+ against 76
Bailey 583 High Lev. PA out of 3338 Total (17.5%),High Leverage OPS+ against 115
2 outs RISP OPS+ against 105
Two things will happen in the offseason besides Choo..
Bailey will be offered a contract extension that is fair market value and if he refuses to sign it he will be traded. Bronson will then be resigned for 2 to 3 years.
Reds will get a lot in return if they can send him to a team that he will go ahead and sign an extension with at that point. Right now he is a solid #2 in the rotation, he may someday make the jump to a one over the next few years. He has the stuff it's all mental at this point in the game for him....
The "flat out better" term was meant for this season. Which Bailey has been flat out better. 2.9 WAR to 1.1 WAR.
In 2012 Bailey had a 3 WAR, Leake might get that this year but I doubt it.
FIP isn't a predictor, it tells us how a well a pitcher has pitched independent of fielding. xFIP is a predictor.
Im not going to criticize Leake, he's pitching great this year, but does everyone realize how lucky we are to have Homer. If you look at the peripheral stats he should be in the Cy Young race, not sitting 4 games under. I know some are arguing about his stats in high leverage situations but that's taking a relatively small sample size. I have ZERO reservations about the mental toughness of a guy who has pitched two no hitters and a playoff gem in the last twelve months.
That said the Reds are going to have to trade a starting pitcher for offense in the offseason considering we will only be returning two .750+ OPS bats in our lineup and theres no help in the upper minors. I would prefer to build this staff around Homer but if he isn't interested in signing an extension then he's the guy you move.