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Thread: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

  1. #46
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I have no idea what Nolan Ryan has to do with the rest of this post.
    Strikeouts strikeouts strikeouts...and maybe the best "stuff" ever....a lot more to pitching

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  3. #47
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by Playadlc View Post
    There is zero chance Boston trades Bogaerts.

    I do like the trade, though.
    Boston traded their crown jewel SS prospect once for a young Texas fireballer, and that worked out pretty well for both sides. Just saying...
    Go BLUE!!!

  4. #48
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    The Reds should probably pursue a deal in the offseason similar to the Shields/Myers trade that the Rays made with KC. Right now, the Reds only have 5 starters and there is no way Bailey should be traded during the season.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  6. #49
    Bread Gloves Razor Shines's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    In the playoffs we will obviously face teams over .500, Homer doesn't have a win against a team that is currently over .500

    His 5 wins are against teams that are a combined 56 games under .500, while I completely realize he's pitched well enough to keep us in most every game but at some point this season it's impossible to believe he hasn't win a few.....maybe he's incredibly unlucky. If he's that unlucky I don't want him out there over the high karma guys...

    But again, he has had a very good year and I really do trust him, but I trust the other 4 as well at least as much and also Cueto of course.
    Don't believe in karma or luck. I believe in "luck" as in randomness of baseball. If I had to guess I'd say he's due for a streak of wins.

    Yeah Bailey didn't have a really good season until he was 26, last year and he's going to have an even better year this season. Leake still hasn't had a season as good as Bailey did in 2012 and he won't match it this year either.

    I value Leake's instincts. I like that he's a "baseball player", you get the feeling that he'd be valuable whatever position he is playing because he makes plays, but Bailey has flat out been better.

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  8. #50
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    The Reds should probably pursue a deal in the offseason similar to the Shields/Myers trade that the Rays made with KC. Right now, the Reds only have 5 starters and there is no way Bailey should be traded during the season.
    Agree, and Profar and Bogarts would be the two guys in my sights. However I think the chance the Sox deal Bogarts just narrowed quite a bit with Iglesias leaving town in the Peavy deal.
    Go BLUE!!!

  9. #51
    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    Would Bailey for Asdrubal Cabrera be a good fit?
    Sabermetrics can be boiled down to this simple truism: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

  10. #52
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    Idea is don't trade Bailey. That is all.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

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  12. #53
    Bread Gloves Razor Shines's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    Nice outing for Bailey, I guess. It's not like it counts San Diego isn't a playoff team so everyone knows they're out there laying down for Bailey.

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    RedEye (07-31-2013), reds44 (07-31-2013)

  14. #54
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    Great game by Homer!

  15. #55
    5.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by Razor Shines View Post
    Nice outing for Bailey, I guess. It's not like it counts San Diego isn't a playoff team so everyone knows they're out there laying down for Bailey.
    Dude...
    Rounding third and heading for home...

  16. #56
    Bread Gloves Razor Shines's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by BluegrassRedleg View Post
    Dude...
    Close to blasphemy there, I'm a dude not The Dude.

  17. #57
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by Razor Shines View Post
    Don't believe in karma or luck. I believe in "luck" as in randomness of baseball. If I had to guess I'd say he's due for a streak of wins.

    Yeah Bailey didn't have a really good season until he was 26, last year and he's going to have an even better year this season. Leake still hasn't had a season as good as Bailey did in 2012 and he won't match it this year either.

    I value Leake's instincts. I like that he's a "baseball player", you get the feeling that he'd be valuable whatever position he is playing because he makes plays, but Bailey has flat out been better.
    Not sure how you get flat out better. Very similair yet Leake is younger and cheaper

    3 year total
    Leake 30-22, 482.1, 3.77 ERA, 5.5 WAR (BR) - Leake career .600 OPS
    Bailey 27-27, 476 IP, 3.91 ERA, 4.7 WAR (BR) - Bailey career .368 OPS

    Not sure how you think Leake won't match Bailey's year last year when he's allowing a full run less than Bailey did. Remember FIP what you'll most likely do - ERA what you have done.

    Whether you believe in clutch play or not... Leake is just a lot better in clutch situations, maybe Leake just is better out of the stretch, and Bailey is much worse, but this is a big reason in my eyes as to why Leake consistantly outperforms FIP and Bailey consistently underperforms as compared to FIP.

    High Leverage PA's
    Leake 422 High Lev. PA out of 2610 Total (16.2%),High Leverage OPS+ against 93
    2 outs RISP OPS+ against 76
    Bailey 583 High Lev. PA out of 3338 Total (17.5%),High Leverage OPS+ against 115
    2 outs RISP OPS+ against 105

  18. #58
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    Two things will happen in the offseason besides Choo..

    Bailey will be offered a contract extension that is fair market value and if he refuses to sign it he will be traded. Bronson will then be resigned for 2 to 3 years.

    Reds will get a lot in return if they can send him to a team that he will go ahead and sign an extension with at that point. Right now he is a solid #2 in the rotation, he may someday make the jump to a one over the next few years. He has the stuff it's all mental at this point in the game for him....

  19. #59
    Bread Gloves Razor Shines's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    The "flat out better" term was meant for this season. Which Bailey has been flat out better. 2.9 WAR to 1.1 WAR.

    In 2012 Bailey had a 3 WAR, Leake might get that this year but I doubt it.

    FIP isn't a predictor, it tells us how a well a pitcher has pitched independent of fielding. xFIP is a predictor.

  20. #60
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    Im not going to criticize Leake, he's pitching great this year, but does everyone realize how lucky we are to have Homer. If you look at the peripheral stats he should be in the Cy Young race, not sitting 4 games under. I know some are arguing about his stats in high leverage situations but that's taking a relatively small sample size. I have ZERO reservations about the mental toughness of a guy who has pitched two no hitters and a playoff gem in the last twelve months.

    That said the Reds are going to have to trade a starting pitcher for offense in the offseason considering we will only be returning two .750+ OPS bats in our lineup and theres no help in the upper minors. I would prefer to build this staff around Homer but if he isn't interested in signing an extension then he's the guy you move.

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