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Thread: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

  1. #106
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    Ehhhhhhhh I have to dispute this notion that Leake and Bailey play in front of a defensive alignment that changes significantly depending on who's on the mound. The Reds have a pretty regular lineup.

    To that point, if the defense changes year to year, but Leake still out performs his peripherals and Bailey still underperforms them, that seems to me to support the idea that its an actual skill and that the defense isn't as huge as a variable as proposed, rather than dispute that notion.
    I think Leake has been outperforming his peripherals this year with that snazzy ERA and win total that everyone likes to call "actual" production. I don't think this was the case in the past though -- and that's part of why many people don't except the numbers to last.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Razor Shines (08-01-2013)

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  4. #107
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    Ehhhhhhhh I have to dispute this notion that Leake and Bailey play in front of a defensive alignment that changes significantly depending on who's on the mound. The Reds have a pretty regular lineup.
    I dunno. Last year was pretty consistent but 2011 saw a lot of left-side infield changes like Rolen/Cairo and Renteria/Janish in addition to a Gomes/Heisey/Lewis hydra in LF. 2010 gave us more Rolen/Cairo and (shudder) Cabrera/Janish.

    To that point, if the defense changes year to year, but Leake still out performs his peripherals and Bailey still underperforms them, that seems to me to support the idea that its an actual skill and that the defense isn't as huge as a variable as proposed, rather than dispute that notion.
    Leake doesn't necessarily outperform his peripherals. He does outperform his FIP but his ERA and xFIP are pretty much the same.

    To be continued...
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  5. #108
    Member Razor Shines's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    Bailey pitches poorly and gets a win? Gosh, that's random.

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    LexRedsFan (08-07-2013)

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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I think Leake has been outperforming his peripherals this year with that snazzy ERA and win total that everyone likes to call "actual" production. I don't think this was the case in the past though -- and that's part of why many people don't except the numbers to last.
    "actual" production? I'm a little confused by that statement. A win is a win. A lot of sabermetrics are suppose to be predictive and you can't dismiss the actual stats that have happened. I think it's why some get defensive/combative between nerds/jocks.

    It sounds like you are saying Leake doesn't deserve his stats. Which is just not true.

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    UCBrownsfan (08-07-2013)

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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    Would still love to make the Bailey-for-Profar trade this offseason.
    Go BLUE!!!

  10. #111
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by Trajinous View Post
    "actual" production? I'm a little confused by that statement. A win is a win. A lot of sabermetrics are suppose to be predictive and you can't dismiss the actual stats that have happened. I think it's why some get defensive/combative between nerds/jocks.

    It sounds like you are saying Leake doesn't deserve his stats. Which is just not true.
    I think the assumption that folks who use numbers are nerds and those who don't are jocks causes quite a few issues too

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    Razor Shines (08-07-2013)

  12. #112
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Trade Idea - Involving Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by Trajinous View Post
    "actual" production? I'm a little confused by that statement. A win is a win. A lot of sabermetrics are suppose to be predictive and you can't dismiss the actual stats that have happened. I think it's why some get defensive/combative between nerds/jocks.

    It sounds like you are saying Leake doesn't deserve his stats. Which is just not true.
    I only put the word in scare quotes to show that I wasn't taking its meaning for granted. Remember that many folks still use W as a way to measure pitchers' achievements and claim that this is "actual production" on the field. Most of us know, though, that W are a statistic like any other -- and a very poor one at that.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013


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