Rick, you've just ruined the narrative that the Reds are an inconsistent run scoring team versus the league!
Quick reboot!
Rick, you've just ruined the narrative that the Reds are an inconsistent run scoring team versus the league!
Quick reboot!
I wouldn't mind if he jogged through it.Originally Posted by RedsManRick
Dear Baseball Fans
The game changes right before your eyes, what you think is normal is not, what you think is strange and rare is not, what you think you think you know about baseball trends you most likely overestimate, what you think you know about other teams trends besides the one you focus on is probably very little.
Signed a guy who played on a Little League team named The Senators
Brutus (07-31-2013),Homer Bailey (08-27-2013),nate (07-31-2013),reds1869 (07-31-2013),Roy Tucker (07-31-2013)
I'd rather go through a streak like this now than in October. Maybe once Ludwick comes back, things start to fix themselves.
I doubt it, but it could happen.
Ludwick was productive last year....but I'm a little concerned that the 35 year old with 805 career hits, coming off an injury won't be much help.
If you don't, you're not watching every third game.
Rounding third and heading for home...
Just did some looking:
The Reds score four or more runs 58% of the time. The NL average (which includes the Reds 58%) is 50%
Interesting
Some decent points there, and appreciate the effort to have an actual discussion about it. I suppose the part that puzzles me is how the "league average" thing is often thrown out there as some sort of justification for the problem. We all expected this team to perform at a higher level this season, not to be league average. Stating that does not mean you're unaware that pitching has come to the forefront in MLB, as others have suggested here. We all know that is the case. But we still should be frustrated when we see the same poor approaches at the plate that consistently lead to missed scoring opportunities, a boatload of stranded runners and empty frames on the scoreboard. Those are going to come occasionally against the Kershaws of the world, but not the last three guys the Reds have faced. Those games have been far too frequent this season while our starters have pitched their rear ends off.
Rounding third and heading for home...
The OP essentially provided a rate stat with no context in which to judge it by other than intuition.
It's your intuition that the Reds are doing poorly and should do better. Giving the observation some context reveals that they aren't doing as poorly relative to their competition as intuition might lead one to believe.
And that is the point of baselines-they allow meaningful comparisons which provide useful context.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Here's the thing, all season, and not just the past week, people have been complaining how bad the offense is, and that their high numbers of runs are the result of a few blowouts.
Now we have something concrete. The Reds score 4+ runs/game at a much higher than average level. They're on pace to do so in 94 games this season.
I don't think anyone is saying that there isn't room to improve, but the narrative couldn't be more wrong.
Championship teams don't operate on baselines or league averages. That was the point of the OP. this team needs help to be what we thought it could be entering the season.
Rounding third and heading for home...
1987 Twins say hey
I think in your need to vetch, youre completely missing the point.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Every advanced measure or statistic in baseball that is used by anyone with an ounce of credibility establishes a baseline in which to compare.
Are you familiar with marginal dollars in either actual or fantasy baseball? Again, they use a baseline for league-wide dollars spent at replacement level (or a baseline) to judge value.
Baselines are important to compare what the rest of the league is doing. The rest of the league, after all, is your competition.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
True, although I've not been counted among that group. Also why I chose "subpar" instead of bad. It's just not good enough to contend.
I'd like to see it broken down by legitimate contenders rather than the league at large. Maybe that would provide a different view I had not considered.
Rounding third and heading for home...
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