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Thread: 36 times

  1. #16
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: 36 times

    Rick, you've just ruined the narrative that the Reds are an inconsistent run scoring team versus the league!

    Quick reboot!
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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  4. #17
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: 36 times

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    And how does that rate of low scoring games compare to other teams? In general? Other teams that score as much as we do in aggregate?

    Sorry, but without context, stuff like this is sort of pointless.

    Form B-R: http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...NL&submitter=1

    - The Reds have low scoring games less than the average NL team
    - The Reds win approximately the same amount their low scoring games as the average NL team

    Code:
    % of GamesWin%
    RunsRedsNLRedsNL
    07%7%0%0%
    112%13%15%9%
    214%16%27%29%
    310%14%36%42%
    416%12%65%54%
    515%11%75%72%
    68%9%89%78%
    74%6%75%84%
    84%4%100%84%
    91%3%100%91%
    102%3%100%100%
    113%1%100%100%
    121%1%100%100%
    133%1%100%100%
    140%0%-100%
    151%0%100%100%
    160%0%-100%
    Don't get me wrong, 5 runs in 5 games is horrible. But I just don't know what people expect Walt to do. Right now the offense has 2 studs (Votto, Choo), 1 above average guy (Bruce), 2 average guys (Frazier, LF), 2 below average guys (Phillips, Rocco) and 1 black hole of suck (Cozart). With the talent spread like that, you're bound to have some pretty ugly streaks.

    Adding Hunter Pence isn't to fix Cozart or Phillips. The trade options that out there simply don't address our glaring weaknesses. Troy Tulowitski isn't walking through that door.
    I wouldn't mind if he jogged through it.

  5. #18
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: 36 times

    Dear Baseball Fans

    The game changes right before your eyes, what you think is normal is not, what you think is strange and rare is not, what you think you think you know about baseball trends you most likely overestimate, what you think you know about other teams trends besides the one you focus on is probably very little.

    Signed a guy who played on a Little League team named The Senators

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  7. #19
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    Re: 36 times

    I'd rather go through a streak like this now than in October. Maybe once Ludwick comes back, things start to fix themselves.

    I doubt it, but it could happen.

  8. #20
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: 36 times

    Ludwick was productive last year....but I'm a little concerned that the 35 year old with 805 career hits, coming off an injury won't be much help.

  9. #21
    5.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: 36 times

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Any comparison needs a valid baseline. I don't really see a baseline in the OP.
    If you don't, you're not watching every third game.
    Rounding third and heading for home...

  10. #22
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: 36 times

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    And how does that rate of low scoring games compare to other teams? In general? Other teams that score as much as we do in aggregate?

    Sorry, but without context, stuff like this is sort of pointless.

    Form B-R: http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...NL&submitter=1

    - The Reds have low scoring games less than the average NL team
    - The Reds win approximately the same amount their low scoring games as the average NL team

    Code:
    	% of Games			Win%	
    Runs	Reds	NL		Reds	NL
    0	7%	7%		0%	0%
    1	12%	13%		15%	9%
    2	14%	16%		27%	29%
    3	10%	14%		36%	42%
    4	16%	12%		65%	54%
    5	15%	11%		75%	72%
    6	8%	9%		89%	78%
    7	4%	6%		75%	84%
    8	4%	4%		100%	84%
    9	1%	3%		100%	91%
    10	2%	3%		100%	100%
    11	3%	1%		100%	100%
    12	1%	1%		100%	100%
    13	3%	1%		100%	100%
    14	0%	0%		-	100%
    15	1%	0%		100%	100%
    16	0%	0%		-	100%
    Don't get me wrong, 5 runs in 5 games is horrible. But I just don't know what people expect Walt to do. Right now the offense has 2 studs (Votto, Choo), 1 above average guy (Bruce), 2 average guys (Frazier, LF), 2 below average guys (Phillips, Rocco) and 1 black hole of suck (Cozart). With the talent spread like that, you're bound to have some pretty ugly streaks.

    Adding Hunter Pence isn't to fix Cozart or Phillips. The trade options that out there simply don't address our glaring weaknesses. Troy Tulowitski isn't walking through that door.

    Just did some looking:
    The Reds score four or more runs 58% of the time. The NL average (which includes the Reds 58%) is 50%

    Interesting
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  11. #23
    5.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: 36 times

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    And how does that rate of low scoring games compare to other teams? In general? Other teams that score as much as we do in aggregate?

    Sorry, but without context, stuff like this is sort of pointless.

    Form B-R: http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...NL&submitter=1

    - The Reds have low scoring games less than the average NL team
    - The Reds win approximately the same amount their low scoring games as the average NL team

    Code:
    % of GamesWin%
    RunsRedsNLRedsNL
    07%7%0%0%
    112%13%15%9%
    214%16%27%29%
    310%14%36%42%
    416%12%65%54%
    515%11%75%72%
    68%9%89%78%
    74%6%75%84%
    84%4%100%84%
    91%3%100%91%
    102%3%100%100%
    113%1%100%100%
    121%1%100%100%
    133%1%100%100%
    140%0%-100%
    151%0%100%100%
    160%0%-100%
    Don't get me wrong, 5 runs in 5 games is horrible. But I just don't know what people expect Walt to do. Right now the offense has 2 studs (Votto, Choo), 1 above average guy (Bruce), 2 average guys (Frazier, LF), 2 below average guys (Phillips, Rocco) and 1 black hole of suck (Cozart). With the talent spread like that, you're bound to have some pretty ugly streaks.

    Adding Hunter Pence isn't to fix Cozart or Phillips. The trade options that out there simply don't address our glaring weaknesses. Troy Tulowitski isn't walking through that door.
    Some decent points there, and appreciate the effort to have an actual discussion about it. I suppose the part that puzzles me is how the "league average" thing is often thrown out there as some sort of justification for the problem. We all expected this team to perform at a higher level this season, not to be league average. Stating that does not mean you're unaware that pitching has come to the forefront in MLB, as others have suggested here. We all know that is the case. But we still should be frustrated when we see the same poor approaches at the plate that consistently lead to missed scoring opportunities, a boatload of stranded runners and empty frames on the scoreboard. Those are going to come occasionally against the Kershaws of the world, but not the last three guys the Reds have faced. Those games have been far too frequent this season while our starters have pitched their rear ends off.
    Rounding third and heading for home...

  12. #24
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: 36 times

    Quote Originally Posted by BluegrassRedleg View Post
    I suppose the part that puzzles me is how the "league average" thing is often thrown out there as some sort of justification for the problem.
    The OP essentially provided a rate stat with no context in which to judge it by other than intuition.

    It's your intuition that the Reds are doing poorly and should do better. Giving the observation some context reveals that they aren't doing as poorly relative to their competition as intuition might lead one to believe.

    And that is the point of baselines-they allow meaningful comparisons which provide useful context.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  13. #25
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: 36 times

    Here's the thing, all season, and not just the past week, people have been complaining how bad the offense is, and that their high numbers of runs are the result of a few blowouts.

    Now we have something concrete. The Reds score 4+ runs/game at a much higher than average level. They're on pace to do so in 94 games this season.

    I don't think anyone is saying that there isn't room to improve, but the narrative couldn't be more wrong.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  14. #26
    5.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: 36 times

    Championship teams don't operate on baselines or league averages. That was the point of the OP. this team needs help to be what we thought it could be entering the season.
    Rounding third and heading for home...

  15. #27
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: 36 times

    Quote Originally Posted by BluegrassRedleg View Post
    Championship teams don't operate on baselines or league averages. That was the point of the OP. this team needs help to be what we thought it could be entering the season.
    1987 Twins say hey

  16. #28
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: 36 times

    Quote Originally Posted by BluegrassRedleg View Post
    Championship teams don't operate on baselines or league averages. That was the point of the OP. this team needs help to be what we thought it could be entering the season.
    I think in your need to vetch, youre completely missing the point.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  17. #29
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: 36 times

    Quote Originally Posted by BluegrassRedleg View Post
    Championship teams don't operate on baselines or league averages. That was the point of the OP. this team needs help to be what we thought it could be entering the season.
    Every advanced measure or statistic in baseball that is used by anyone with an ounce of credibility establishes a baseline in which to compare.

    Are you familiar with marginal dollars in either actual or fantasy baseball? Again, they use a baseline for league-wide dollars spent at replacement level (or a baseline) to judge value.

    Baselines are important to compare what the rest of the league is doing. The rest of the league, after all, is your competition.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  18. #30
    5.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: 36 times

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Here's the thing, all season, and not just the past week, people have been complaining how bad the offense is, and that their high numbers of runs are the result of a few blowouts.

    Now we have something concrete. The Reds score 4+ runs/game at a much higher than average level. They're on pace to do so in 94 games this season.

    I don't think anyone is saying that there isn't room to improve, but the narrative couldn't be more wrong.
    True, although I've not been counted among that group. Also why I chose "subpar" instead of bad. It's just not good enough to contend.

    I'd like to see it broken down by legitimate contenders rather than the league at large. Maybe that would provide a different view I had not considered.
    Rounding third and heading for home...


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