I'm not saying that doesn't have value. I'm saying that being at or slightly above league average is not typically what a championship contender is measuring itself by.Originally Posted by Brutus
I'm not saying that doesn't have value. I'm saying that being at or slightly above league average is not typically what a championship contender is measuring itself by.
Rounding third and heading for home...
If you actually look at what constitutes a championship contender, it's usually a club that is above average in offense, defense and pitching. Above average, after all, means you're in the top 10-15 in the league, sometimes higher.
If you look at the Reds in those areas:
8th in MLB in runs scored
5th in MLB in FIP
4th in MLB in defensive efficiency ratio
That, my friend, is a championship caliber club.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
AtomicDumpling (07-31-2013),RedEye (07-31-2013)
So you feel they're squarely in the discussion?
Rounding third and heading for home...
I haven't researched this but I'd like to see those stats on a chart. My guess is you'd see a nice slope pointing downward. Stats at any given time don't always show what's going on. (For example, a hitter could have a .270 BA but he's hitting .360 for the past month.) Championship-caliber now? Yes. If the trend doesn't change? Probably not.
Still, your info does show what this team is capable of. It would just be nice to see them return to that form.
Absolutely. They aren't playing like it at the moment, but I don't think the past week is representative of their overall ability.
Fact is, in 2010, who really thought the Giants were a championship contender? In 2011, who thought the Cardinals were? Heck, the Cardinals weren't even in the playoff chase with a month to go but only made it because of a miracle collapse. Last year, the Giants weren't all that good an offensive club. They won the World Series.
The Reds are better than either of those three teams.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
I think you're confusing slumps with trends. If you looked at the Reds' offense on such a scatter plot, I imagine you'd see ups and downs just like any club.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
RedEye (07-31-2013)
This is EXACTLY correct.
This just in: The Reds are better than average, but are not the best team in baseball. This is a problem, because if you aren't the best, you aren't championship caliber. And if aren't championship caliber, you can't win the championship. That's the goal.
As part of not being the best team, they haven't scored the most runs. In fact, the Reds sometimes don't score very many runs at all, especially in the last week. They should score more runs because that's what winners do, score more runs than everybody else. So, yeah, more runs. That would be good. Because if we don't score more runs... no championship.
Insightful thread.
Last edited by RedsManRick; 07-31-2013 at 05:55 PM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
RedEye (07-31-2013)
I would like nothing more than to come back and sing your praises in October.
Rounding third and heading for home...
Well, the problem is I'm not saying they will win anything. I'm just saying they are a contender, hence I think they're good enough to win. The playoffs guarantee nothing to anyone. So while the Reds could win it all, I fully recognize they could lose in the wildcard game and be out after one night.I would like nothing more than to come back and sing your praises in October.
But I do think the Reds have as good a shot as anyone. In baseball, if you have a couple of aces, a good pitching staff, good defense and a couple of great hitters, you are a serious threat to win the championship.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
RedEye (07-31-2013)
Well, you can't do it without great pitching, so I'm glad we have that working in our favor. For years and years, we knew the lack thereof eliminated us from the discussion before it could even begin.
One nice move by Walt could pull me closer to your optimistic stance.
Rounding third and heading for home...
I can simplify it for you: All championship teams have one thing and only one thing in common: they made the playoffs. If you make the playoffs, you are a serious threat to win the championship. The end.
People have done the "math", there's no magic formula to team construction that confers a particularly notable advantage in the playoffs. People have looked at having aces, having a great bullpen, having a balanced lineup vs. a top heavy one. The reality is that playoff caliber baseball teams are so closely matched in terms of talent and the nature of the sport is balanced such that the "random" variance of player performance in a best-of-7 series grossly trumps any variance resulting from the "kind" of good team you have.
Yes, in the new playoff system, there is a distinct advantage to winning the division vs. taking a wildcard, since the latter is equivalent to half of a spot in the divisional round. But beyond that, just worry about getting there - nothing you can do beyond that (and being healthy when you get there) makes much of a difference.
Last edited by RedsManRick; 07-31-2013 at 07:56 PM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
It's hard to believe that there is still a debate that a team that is 4th in RS in the NL are "subpar".
Even if you use the stats for all of MLB they are above average, and that's without the benefit of the DH.
You might want to look at the teams who have been winning the world series.
Are you telling me that they are the most elite teams each year?
Otherwise, why play the playoffs, wouldn't the best team always win?
OPS (08-01-2013)
There's a lot of different ways you can look at it, a lot of different stats that can be used.
All due respect, if we can't agree that they've got some major offensive issues that make one wonder if they're a legit contender, I don't know where to go with the conversation.
Rounding third and heading for home...
Posting Permissions
|
Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please. |
Reply With Quote