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Thread: 36 times

  1. #46
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: 36 times

    Quote Originally Posted by BluegrassRedleg View Post
    All due respect, if we can't agree that they've got some major offensive issues that make one wonder if they're a legit contender, I don't know where to go with the conversation.
    Here's the thing though -- the numbers just don't back up the assertion that this team has "major offensive issues." Frankly, I think that if they did, they would not be in the position they are currently. We might not be happy that the Reds are in third place in the Central, but that doesn't mean they have major issues. It means there are two other really good teams in the same division this year, and the bounces just haven't gone the Reds' way as of yet. I know that's a less attractive narrative to some, but it can also be uplifting. Free your soul! LOL.
    Last edited by RedEye; 07-31-2013 at 09:57 PM.

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  3. #47
    5.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: 36 times

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    You might want to look at the teams who have been winning the world series.

    Are you telling me that they are the most elite teams each year?

    Otherwise, why play the playoffs, wouldn't the best team always win?
    Sure, much depends on getting there and getting hot, but I think you'd find some attributes about those recent winners (especially stuff like hitting with RISP and overall Ks) that were stronger than what the Reds have shown.
    Rounding third and heading for home...

  4. #48
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    Re: 36 times

    Quote Originally Posted by BluegrassRedleg View Post
    Sure, much depends on getting there and getting hot, but I think you'd find some attributes about those recent winners (especially stuff like hitting with RISP and overall Ks) that were stronger than what the Reds have shown.
    To my knowledge, regular season hitting with RISP and team Ks do not correlate reliably with results in the playoffs. Sure -- teams in the playoffs tend to get timely hitting. But there is no necessary link between what they've done earlier and what they do when they get there.

  5. #49
    5.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: 36 times

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    To my knowledge, regular season hitting with RISP and team Ks do not correlate reliably with results in the playoffs. Sure -- teams in the playoffs tend to get timely hitting. But there is no necessary link between what they've done earlier and what they do when they get there.
    Not sure about that. Seems like certain traits would carry over, especially against an elevated level of pitching.
    Rounding third and heading for home...

  6. #50
    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: 36 times

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Here's the thing though -- the numbers just don't back up the assertion that this team has "major offensive issues." Frankly, I think that if they did, they would not be in the position they are currently. We might not be happy that the Reds are in third place in the Central, but that doesn't mean they have major issues. It means there are two other really good teams in the same division this year, and the bounces just haven't gone the Reds' way as of yet. I know that's a less attractive narrative to some, but it can also be uplifting. Free your soul! LOL.
    Lets put it this way then; the offense is slipping. They were 2nd in the NL in runs scored for a long time, then 3rd for a time and now 4th.

    Maybe not major offensive issues, but there is a trend happening.

  7. #51
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    Re: 36 times

    Quote Originally Posted by Always Red View Post
    Lets put it this way then; the offense is slipping. They were 2nd in the NL in runs scored for a long time, then 3rd for a time and now 4th.

    Maybe not major offensive issues, but there is a trend happening.
    Are you sure there weren't just a couple of other teams who got ridiculously hot? 2nd to 4th out of so many teams doesn't seem that significant of a slide to me. I could be wrong.

  8. #52
    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: 36 times

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Are you sure there weren't just a couple of other teams who got ridiculously hot? 2nd to 4th out of so many teams doesn't seem that significant of a slide to me. I could be wrong.
    Or maybe the Reds scored 5 runs in 5 games?

    It's no secret this team is struggling at the plate the last 2 series and its ok to say so. They looked like world beaters against the Giants. Hopefully they will again soon.

  9. #53
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    Re: 36 times

    Quote Originally Posted by Always Red View Post
    It's no secret this team is struggling at the plate the last 2 series and its ok to say so. They looked like world beaters against the Giants. Hopefully they will again soon.
    Sure. They also scored like crazy in the series before that. I wasn't going crazy then and I'm not losing it now.

    The Reds just finished the dreaded West Coast Roadtrip 5-5. That's not a reason to panic for me, much less to change the story arc of this season.

  10. #54
    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: 36 times

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Sure. They also scored like crazy in the series before that. I wasn't going crazy then and I'm not losing it now.

    The Reds just finished the dreaded West Coast Roadtrip 5-5. That's not a reason to panic for me, much less to change the story arc of this season.
    5-6

    I'm not panicking, I'm just pointing out that the offensive output is indeed slipping and that it's ok to say so.

    Lots of folks are pointing out how the offense is doing so well compared to the rest of the NL and I've been on board with that all year. Fact is, as of right now, they are starting to regress, compared to the rest of the league, in the runs scored department.

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    Re: 36 times

    The Reds offense has been drastically up and down the entire season. Lets not pretend this just started recently.
    "I talked to an advance scout that told me if Joey Votto and Albert Pujols were on the same team he'd advise his team to do the unthinkable...pitch around Votto to get to Pujols." - Buster Olney, ESPN

  12. #56
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    Re: 36 times

    Quote Originally Posted by BluegrassRedleg View Post
    Not sure about that. Seems like certain traits would carry over, especially against an elevated level of pitching.
    There's no reason RISP would carry over since it has not even been proven to carry over from season to season. It is not proven to be a statistically significant stat relative to regular performance by batters.

  13. #57
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    Re: 36 times

    Quote Originally Posted by Always Red View Post
    5-6

    I'm not panicking, I'm just pointing out that the offensive output is indeed slipping and that it's ok to say so.

    Lots of folks are pointing out how the offense is doing so well compared to the rest of the NL and I've been on board with that all year. Fact is, as of right now, they are starting to regress, compared to the rest of the league, in the runs scored department.
    5-6 you count the game where the Reds were making up the Giants game, yeah. For some reason, I still just think of it as 5-5 on the regular schedule with that other game earlier.

    I don't think a five-game slump counts as a regression. It's expected variation of outcomes. But others have already made that point.

  14. #58
    5.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: 36 times

    That the Reds still have decent positioning in the runs scored column is impressive, given these circumstances I'd deem as "major issues":

    * Leadoff man is .176 vs LHP (Overall, extremely pleased with Choo in comparison to Stubbs and the cast of clowns we used to run up there in this position, but it has to be considered a concern if you get in a one-game scenario and the other team has a really good LHP.)

    * 2 Hole is .234 AVG (13th NL), .622 OPS (13th NL and 26th MLB) ahead of the most talented hitter on the team. Could not find the exact numbers, but it *feels* like Joey Votto has led off an inordinate amount of times this season.

    * LF OPS .709 (13th NL); SS OPS .620 (11th NL); 3B OPS .701 (10th in NL); C OPS .628 (14th NL). This essentially gives you a 4-man lineup. You're getting next to nothing from half of your 8-man everyday positions.

    * .200 AVG, .302 SLG, .577 OPS in losses. Not sure if this means a whole lot. Every team is certainly weaker in their losses, but THIS much?

    * Home OPS .741, Road .707. Pretty substantial difference.

    * Team AVG RISP .251 (7th NL); with 2 outs .199 (14th NL)

    * Ks 848 (5th most in NL)

    * Baserunning gaffes. Hard to document all of them with stats, but we've seen them in bunches lately. They only have 33 SB. Not much running going on in MLB these days, but still among the worst in either league. And they've been nabbed almost as much (26) as they've stolen.

    Sooooooo...

    A couple of those, you could probably shrug off. But the whole list? I don't see how anyone can still watch this team play and not be concerned with all the red flags. These numbers don't paint the picture of a legit contender.
    Rounding third and heading for home...

  15. #59
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    Re: 36 times

    Quote Originally Posted by New York Red View Post
    The Reds offense has been drastically up and down the entire season. Lets not pretend this just started recently.
    No one is pretending anything. Lots of evidence has been presented as to why what your arguing is not the case.

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    Re: 36 times

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    No one is pretending anything. Lots of evidence has been presented as to why what your arguing is not the case.
    I called it before the end of April and it's been going on ever since. Just as I called the "no leadership" situation months ago that so many others have since started seeing. Just because you don't see it, doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
    "I talked to an advance scout that told me if Joey Votto and Albert Pujols were on the same team he'd advise his team to do the unthinkable...pitch around Votto to get to Pujols." - Buster Olney, ESPN


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