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Thread: Minimum Expectations and

  1. #1
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Minimum Expectations and

    What you expect from this team the rest of the season. Please factor in how you feel Ludwick will help...maybe Cueto, how players will finish and possibly how good the opponents might be.

    My MINIMUM expectations are a 2nd seed WC and then elimination (would tick me off but one game is simply unpredictable)

    I expect a NLCS berth and a competitive series (at least 6 games)

    This is where I stand....where stand you?

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  3. #2
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Minimum Expectations and

    Bueller? Bueller?

  4. #3
    Pimpin...literally!!! dubc47834's Avatar
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    Re: Minimum Expectations and

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    Bueller? Bueller?
    Crickets.....crickets.......crickets

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    Member tomnuetten's Avatar
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    Re: Minimum Expectations and

    I think the Reds will get "hot", but will miss the division title by 1 or 2 games and end the season in 2nd place (#1 wildcard)

    they´ll win the wildcard and the nlds but lose nlcs.

    ludwick will have a slow start and will be the #4 hitter... he won´t have much better numbers than heisey or paul and will be playing 2/3 of the time

    he will be a great guy in the lockerroom and should give the team a boost (mentally) and it will upgrade our bench


    cueton won´t be a big factor, I doubt that he´ll play in postseason after this (for him) cursed season...

  6. #5
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Minimum Expectations and

    Thanks Tom, though I'm looking more for what you expect from this team as far as a final finish and I guess the least acceptable finish.

    dub....interested in yours

  7. #6
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Minimum Expectations and

    I want to know what your minimum expectations for this thread were first. :-)
    "I’ll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. That’s just how I do things.” -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Minimum Expectations and

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I want to know what your minimum expectations for this thread were first. :-)
    14 responses of what I was asking

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    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Minimum Expectations and

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I want to know what your minimum expectations for this thread were first. :-)
    Okay, so here's my take:

    My minimum expectations are a playoff spot. After that, I have high hopes but no expectations.
    "I’ll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. That’s just how I do things.” -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Ironman92 (08-01-2013), Raisor (08-01-2013)

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    Member tomnuetten's Avatar
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    Re: Minimum Expectations and

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    Thanks Tom, though I'm looking more for what you expect from this team as far as a final finish and I guess the least acceptable finish.

    dub....interested in yours

    ah, yeah I reread your post and now I saw the MINIMUM

    I have to practice my english a little bit more (=> have to post and read more on redszone )

    ok the minimum expectations are to hold on to the 2nd wildcard spot... it is a one game playoff => some bad calls + bad pitches and the season is over

    I don´t expect much from ludwick or cueto who´ve been to long on the dl to contribute immediately (and the season isn´t that long anymore)

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    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Minimum Expectations and

    minimum...the 2nd wildcard...win that...that's it for the minimum.

  14. #11
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    Re: Minimum Expectations and

    I like the Reds' odds of dispatching the Cards in a one game playoff in Cincinnati, which might culminate in an NLCS against the Pirates or Dodgers (Braves will choke).

    I like the Reds in 7 against either of those teams.

    So, win wild card 1.

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    Ironman92 (08-01-2013)

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    Re: Minimum Expectations and

    Before I address "minimum expectations" going forward, I have to first state what my "minimum expectations" were for this last road trip.

    5-6 was the result...an abysmal effort that not only cost the team 1/6th of it's time it had left for catching the Pirates and the Cardinal, but it actually lost ground to these teams (combined). A golden opportunity was there for the taking (Cardinals losing an unheard of 7 in a row).

    6-5 was the "minimum expectation", as it would have been an improvement of their road record for the year, though no better than what they had been doing over their previous 40+ road games. 6-5 also would have given the team a chance to at least stay even with the combined efforts of the Cardinals and Pirates while eliminating a very tough portion of their schedule without getting further behind.

    7-4 was the "hoped for" results. That wasn't asking a lot, so it's not like 7-4 was some unrealistic hope. Had they done that, these last games of the season would have been a more reasonable task for securing the Division Championship, the first goal, and expected result of this team when the season began (anything less would be an underachievement). 7-4 would have gained ground on the combined efforts of the Pirates and Cardinals.

    Because of the poor results of this roadtrip, the REDS have a formidable task ahead to win the Division, still the goal they should have and everyone should have for this team.

    My "minimum expectations" going forward is for the team to play at a .642 clip. The hot summer ahead could favor the REDS at the GABP, where they could play .742 from here on.

    But, most importantly, they have to play .688 vs the Pirates/Cardinals. Do this, and they could get away with playing at a .642 clip the rest of the year. So, this is my true "minimum expectations". They are the "minimum expectations" because this team is supposed to win the Division. No excuses for doing anything less than that.

    Here's how it can be done:

    Go 11-5 (.688) vs Cardinals/Pirates.
    Go 11-11 (.500) on the Road.
    Go 23-8 (.742) at Home.
    Go 34-19 (.642) Overall.

    This should put us +/- 1 game of the Division Lead by the end of the season.

    They would finish with a 94-68 (.580) record.

    For the Pirates to finish with a 94-68 record, they would have to go 29-26. That doesn't sound reasonable, but if the REDS beat them in 5 of 6 (which includes a 3-game Sweep in Cincy to end the season), then it's really the Pirates having to go 28-21 (.571) the rest of the season, a very reasonable number when you consider the Pirates Schedule:
    @STL(6)-4L, @TEX(3)-2L, @CHC(3)-1L, @MIL(3)-2L, @SF(4)-3L, @SD(3)-2L, @COL(3)-2L, ARI(3)-1L, STL(4)-2L, CHI/SD(7)-2L, COL/MIA(6)-2L, MIL(3)-1L. There's 24 potential losses out of the 21 needed, so it's very possible for the REDS to be within 3 games of the Pirates with 3 to play.


    For the St. Louis Cardinals to finish 94-68, they would have to go 32-24, or 26-20 (.566) if the REDS win 6 of 10 from the Cardinals, a very reasonable expectation for a club currently on a 7-game losing streak.

    Breaking down the rest of the season, here's how the REDS can win the Division by finishing 94-68:

    Aug 2 vs StL - W
    Aug 3 vs StL - L
    Aug 4 vs StL - W

    Aug 6 vs Oak - W
    Aug 7 vs Oak - L

    Aug 9 vs SD - W
    Aug 10 vs SD - W
    Aug 11 vs SD - W

    Aug 12 @ ChC - W
    Aug 13 @ ChC - L
    Aug 14 @ ChC - L

    Aug 15 @ Mil - W
    Aug 16 @ Mil - L
    Aug 17 @ Mil - W
    Aug 18 @ Mil - L

    Aug 19 vs Ari - W
    Aug 20 vs Ari - L
    Aug 21 vs Ari - W
    Aug 22 vs Ari - L

    Aug 23 vs Mil - W
    Aug 24 vs Mil - W
    Aug 25 vs Mil - W

    Aug 26 @ StL - L
    Aug 27 @ StL - W
    Aug 28 @ StL - L

    Aug 30 @ Col - W
    Aug 31 @ Col - L
    Sep 1 @ Col - W

    Sep 2 vs StL - W
    Sep 3 vs StL - W
    Sep 4 vs StL - L
    Sep 5 vs StL - W

    Sep 6 vs LAD - W
    Sep 7 vs LAD - L
    Sep 8 vs LAD - W

    Sep 9 vs ChC - W
    Sep 10 vs ChC - L
    Sep 11 vs ChC - W

    Sep 13 @ Mil - W
    Sep 14 @ Mil - L
    Sep 15 @ Mil - L

    Sep 16 @ Hou - W
    Sep 17 @ Hou - W
    Sep 18 @ Hou - W

    Sep 20 @ Pit - W
    Sep 21 @ Pit - L
    Sep 22 @ Pit - W

    Sep 23 vs NYM - W
    Sep 24 vs NYM - L
    Sep 25 vs NYM - W

    Sep 27 vs Pit - W
    Sep 28 vs Pit - W
    Sep 29 vs Pit - W


    If the REDS played the schedule out this way they would end up having two 4-game winning streaks, and no losing streaks of 3 games or more. Consistency is the key here. Taking any 10-game stretch over this time and the biggest swings would be one 8-2 streak, a 7-3 streak, but also a 4-6 streak.


    The whole point of this was to show that this "formidable" task ahead is actually very doable if they can get the crowds behind them at home and play well against the Cardinals and Pirates (8-2 @ home and 3-3 on the Road).
    Last edited by Kingspoint; 08-01-2013 at 03:50 PM.

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  18. #13
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Minimum Expectations and

    Thanks for taking the time and it should be interesting to follow......what is you min and expected playoff finishes?

  19. #14
    Custodial Engineer Bob Sheed's Avatar
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    Re: Minimum Expectations and

    Minimum expectation is they play sub-.500 uninspired ball for the rest of the season and barely miss a WC spot.

    I don't expect Ludwick to be much of a factor and may actually be a hindrance, depending on how badly, and for how long he struggles.

    I don't expect Cueto to contribute much anymore either.

    But I would be more than pleasantly surprised (ecstatic) , if they stumble backward into the playoffs, then go on a hot streak and win the World Series.
    "And why do false truths persist, getting passed down the decades as if they were fact? It comes back to the same point: People believe things that are wrong because, individually, people rarely investigate their own beliefs, particularly when what they believe makes sense intuitively. Even more so when those around them agree with them." -K.F.

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    Unassisted (08-01-2013)

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    Re: Minimum Expectations and

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    Thanks for taking the time and it should be interesting to follow......what is you min and expected playoff finishes?
    Once in the playoffs, anything can happen, so I don't have any minimum expectations. During the Big Red Machine era, reaching the World Series was the minimum. There were only two playoff teams.

    But, with two rounds in the playoffs even if you win the Division, luck comes into play a lot more.

    The minimum is to win one playoff series, and not to even play in any kind of "wildcard playoff".

    If it comes down to a single playoff game, Walt Jockety has put this team into the position to win that type of a game with at least one ACE on the team, though they suffer greatly with Defense in Centerfield, a bad situation for a one-game playoff.

    Because the REDS, Cardinals and Pirates all lack a "dominant" ACE, one of the five best pitchers in all of baseball for this season, such as Brian Harvey or Clayton Kershaw, it's just as likely that these six pitchers throw equally well in a one-game playoff: Bailey, Latos, Wainwright, Miller, Locke and Burnett. The Pirates hold the advantage Defensively, so the REDS would be better off going up against the Cardinals in a one-game playoff. Should the Cardinals, REDS, or Pirates falter and the Diamondbacks squeeze into the playoffs, the D-Backs have the edge in a one-game playoff over either the REDS, the Pirates or the Cardinals with Patrick Corbin as their Starter.

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