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Thread: So Manny Parra has proven that you NEVER trade cheap starting pitching

  1. #76
    All Fired Up Revering4Blue's Avatar
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    Re: So Manny Parra has proven that you NEVER trade cheap starting pitching

    Quote Originally Posted by scott91575 View Post
    You really think they would not have taken Leake if the Reds decided to deal him instead? We are talking about a reliever on the last year of his deal. In all honesty Wood was too much to give up, but he was expendable due to the starting rotation in place and his lack of options. This was all about what the Reds were willing to give up, not what the Cubs wanted (well, besides settling for absolute garbage).
    I don't know about that.

    I wouldn't be at all surprised if -- there's really no way we will ever know what really transpired -- Hoyer and Epstein did not specifically target Wood instead of Leake, if for no other reason than the possibility that H and E both held the same opinion that several RZers at the time expressed: At worst, should Wood falter as a starter or encounter the same problem in Chicago as Cincy -- no room in rotation --Wood could make a seamless transition to Marshall's former role with the Cubs.

    Was Wood too much to give up for Marshall? I don't think so. I believe it is in line with what I feel Marshall was theoretically worth at the time, even though Marshall was one year away from free agency at the time. Granted, from the standpoint of trade value, I tend to value relievers of Marshall's caliber highly (witness my sig). I do, however, realize that, as an example, a swap of today's comps of Norm Charlton and Kevin Mitchell, which occurred in '93, may well not be realistic in today's MLB climate.
    Last edited by Revering4Blue; 08-07-2013 at 05:32 PM.
    "I have just been more than a little suspect of all the trades since the Willy (Scott Williamson) cash grab. That one left such a bad taste in my mouth that even a 1985 Dom Pérignon couldn't cleanse it." -- Creek14

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  3. #77
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    Re: So Manny Parra has proven that you NEVER trade cheap starting pitching

    It's annoying that many here seem to be blaming Walt for not predicting Marshall's injury. It's ridiculous.

    At the time, Chapman was still a starting pitching option too. Wood was expendable. I would rather have Leake and Marshall. I don't understand the criticism from a trade that hasn't hurt this team in anyway.

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    Re: So Manny Parra has proven that you NEVER trade cheap starting pitching

    Quote Originally Posted by Revering4Blue View Post
    I don't know about that.

    I wouldn't be at all surprised if -- there's really no way we will ever know what really transpired -- Hoyer and Epstein did not specifically target Wood instead of Leake, if for no other reason than the possibility that H and E both held the same opinion that several RZers at the time expressed: At worst, should Wood falter as a starter or encounter the same problem in Chicago as Cincy -- no room in rotation --Wood could make a seamless transition to Marshall's former role with the Cubs.

    Was Wood too much to give up for Marshall? I don't think so. I believe it is in line with what I feel Marshall was theoretically worth at the time, even though Marshall was one year away from free agency at the time. Granted, from the standpoint of trade value, I tend to value relievers of Marshall's caliber highly (witness my sig). I do, however, realize that, as an example, a swap of today's comps of Norm Charlton and Kevin Mitchell, which occurred in '93, may well not be realistic in today's MLB climate.
    It was all about the Reds shopping Wood, not the Cubs coming to the Reds saying "hey, we would like Wood." It happened right after Latos was acquired. That left the Reds with 7 starters (like I said, Chapman at the time was slated to start) and Wood was an odd man out due to his lack of options. So the Reds shopped him and Marshall was the best fit that could actually improve the team immediately. It really is that simple. Do we know 100%? No. Yet Occam's razor applies here. It is the simplest and most logical conclusion. Wood became expendable and his value would not have gotten any higher since he would not have been featured in the majors that year. The Reds knew they had to shop him right away as soon as they got Latos, and it took what, 1 week after the Latos trade and he was gone. That is not a coincidence.

  6. #79
    All Fired Up Revering4Blue's Avatar
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    Re: So Manny Parra has proven that you NEVER trade cheap starting pitching

    Quote Originally Posted by scott91575 View Post
    It was all about the Reds shopping Wood, not the Cubs coming to the Reds saying "hey, we would like Wood." It happened right after Latos was acquired. That left the Reds with 7 starters (like I said, Chapman at the time was slated to start) and Wood was an odd man out due to his lack of options. So the Reds shopped him and Marshall was the best fit that could actually improve the team immediately. It really is that simple. Do we know 100%? No. Yet Occam's razor applies here. It is the simplest and most logical conclusion. Wood became expendable and his value would not have gotten any higher since he would not have been featured in the majors that year. The Reds knew they had to shop him right away as soon as they got Latos, and it took what, 1 week after the Latos trade and he was gone. That is not a coincidence.
    I wasn't suggesting otherwise. I was only suggesting that, once talks began, Wood, more than Leake, piqued the interest of the Cubs more so than Leake for the reasons that I've stated. I'm not sure there's much disagreement here, other than whether or not acquiring Marshall was worth giving up Travis Wood. The trade was/is entirely justified.

    As for the ensuing extensions/free agent signings for middle/set-up relievers in question, posts #17 and #19 in this thread spell it out, IMO, better than I could have hoped to.
    Last edited by Revering4Blue; 08-07-2013 at 08:39 PM.
    "I have just been more than a little suspect of all the trades since the Willy (Scott Williamson) cash grab. That one left such a bad taste in my mouth that even a 1985 Dom Pérignon couldn't cleanse it." -- Creek14

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    Re: So Manny Parra has proven that you NEVER trade cheap starting pitching

    Quote Originally Posted by Revering4Blue View Post
    I wasn't suggesting otherwise. I was only suggesting that, once talks began, Wood, more than Leake, piqued the interest of the Cubs more so than Leake for the reasons that I've stated. I'm not sure there's much disagreement here, other than whether or not acquiring Marshall was worth giving up Travis Wood. The trade was/is entirely justified.
    I doubt that Wood ever piqued anyone's interest more than Leake. I can pretty much guarantee that the Reds had no intention of moving Leake over Wood.

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    Re: So Manny Parra has proven that you NEVER trade cheap starting pitching

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    I doubt that Wood ever piqued anyone's interest more than Leake. I can pretty much guarantee that the Reds had no intention of moving Leake over Wood.
    I highly doubt that any Redzoner will dispute the bolded statement. I'm also fairly certain that Leake was never on the table. For the record, I wouldn't have dealt Leake for Marshall.

    Regardless, it still doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility that the belief that Wood, at worst, was capable of developing into another Sean Marshall -- obviously, no guarantee for said scenario to ever come to fruition -- helped to increase Wood's value exponentially. That is the crux of my argument, not whether or not the Reds should have kept Wood over Leake or whether or not the Cubs would have jumped at the chance to acquire Leak if offered for Marshall.
    Last edited by Revering4Blue; 08-07-2013 at 11:18 PM.
    "I have just been more than a little suspect of all the trades since the Willy (Scott Williamson) cash grab. That one left such a bad taste in my mouth that even a 1985 Dom Pérignon couldn't cleanse it." -- Creek14

  9. #82
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: So Manny Parra has proven that you NEVER trade cheap starting pitching

    Quote Originally Posted by Revering4Blue View Post
    I highly doubt that any Redzoner will dispute the bolded statement. I'm also fairly certain that Leake was never on the table. For the record, I wouldn't have dealt Leake for Marshall.

    Regardless, it still doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility that the belief that Wood, at worst, was capable of developing into another Sean Marshall -- obviously, no guarantee for said scenario to ever come to fruition -- helped to increase Wood's value exponentially. That is the crux of my argument, not whether or not the Reds should have kept Wood over Leake or whether or not the Cubs would have jumped at the chance to acquire Leak if offered for Marshall.
    If at worst Wood becomes Marshall, then it was a stupid trade. But turning into Marshall was not the worst case scenario for Wood.

    He was a somewhat soft tossing lefty who just came off a 4.70 or so ERA year. A lot of those guys get Gorzelannied, and even that was not the worst case scenario.

  10. #83
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    Re: So Manny Parra has proven that you NEVER trade cheap starting pitching

    And let's be honest about the nature of Wood's success this year:

    His ERA is 3.05. But has he actually pitched that well?

    His BABIP is an unsustainably low .242. Adjust for that and you can see why he has a 3.68 FIP. But that's not all.

    His HR/FB is an unsustainably low 5.8%. Correct for that too and you have a 4.47 xFIP.

    It just so happens that xFIP is the most predictive of future ERA of those three numbers. Travis Wood's career FIP is 4.37 and career xFIP is 4.44.

    Meanwhile, on the "things he's got the most control over" front:
    - He's striking out 17.2% of batters compared to his career rate of 18.1%.
    - He's walking 8.7% of batters compared to his career rate of 8.1%.
    - And lest you think he's found a way to induce weaker contact despite those two things, his LD% is a poor 21.8%, compared to a career rate of 21.9%.

    Travis Wood hasn't developed in to anything different than who he's been since before we traded him away. He's just having a "good" year. Or a lucky year, if you prefer.

    Let's stop reading so much in to the numbers that make the television broadcast. Wood was and still is a solid back of the rotation starter; that's it. He wouldn't be in our rotation nor pitching high leverage innings in relief. That doesn't make him a scrub, but it did make him expendable. Did Walt overpay for Marshall? Maybe. But if you're asking me whether I'd rather have Travis Wood or Sean Marshall in my bullpen, the answer is a no-brainer.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  12. #84
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    Re: So Manny Parra has proven that you NEVER trade cheap starting pitching

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    I doubt that Wood ever piqued anyone's interest more than Leake. I can pretty much guarantee that the Reds had no intention of moving Leake over Wood.
    I saw Wood pitch while he was in AA Carolina back in 2009 in July before the trade deadline. I sat behind home plate near the scouts and only one of the scouts paid attention to Wood. There had to be 5 or 6 scouts paying attention to the opposing starting pitcher, JD Durbin, who was throwing for AA Chattanooga (with the Dodgers organization, not the Reds at that point). I have no way of saying it is indicative of talent, but it was apparent there was little interest in Wood. As a side note, Todd Frazier played left field that day and hit a 2 run homer.

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    Re: So Manny Parra has proven that you NEVER trade cheap starting pitching

    Some notes on Travis Wood and the Cubs.
    1. Wood is easily the second best left handed starter the Cubs have had in the last 20 years, behind only Ted Lilly, and he's on course to be at least as good for them as Lilly was once he's been there a comparable number of years. Of course it's a small group, as being a left-hander in Wrigley is no easy matter.
    2. After the 2010 and 2011 seasons, the difference between Travis Wood and Mike Leake was very narrow. Wood put up 102.2 innings of 1.08 WHIP for us in 2010, after pitching 100 innings at Louisville (equals 202.2 innings for a 23 year old). Then was 1.49 for the Reds over 106 in 2011. Leake had a WHIP of 1.50 in 2010 over only 138.1, then a 1.175 in 167.2 in 2011. Those numbers are pretty close and Leake had the considerable advantage of not being overworked the way Wood was in 2010.
    3. Wood has been a considerably better starting pitcher for the Cubs than Sean Marshall was over the couple of seasons they tried him as a starter.
    4. None of this implies anything about the trade.
    5. Given the difficulty and desirability of having a left-hander starter on a Cubs staff, it's entirely plausible that when they picked up the phone to ask Walt about the sudden surplus of Reds starters after the Latos trade, the call was about Wood.

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    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: So Manny Parra has proven that you NEVER trade cheap starting pitching

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Wait, what?

    Did you really just cite age as a factor for Wood's bad 2011? You do realize that last season Mike Leake was also 24 years old during his "bad" season, right?

    Leake's career ERA is 3.94. Wood is 3.90. You seem to be imagining an advantage that does not exist.

    Oh, and Leake has almost 500 fewer professional innings pitched than Wood.
    Reading is fundamental.

    I said he had a bad year at age 24. I may have mentioned that isn't all that uncommon. And Leake has had 2 bad seasons, not one. And this year his ERA is a full run better than his good year (his second season) despite having the lowest k/9 of his career.

    ERA is a poor indicator. Leake's 2011 is almost identical to this year, yet this year Leake's ERA is almost a run lower. He's on pace to give up 23 HR's. That is the ONLY thing he's really improved on. He's giving up fewer HR's.

    Citing their professional IP is irrelevant. Leake pitched 380 innings at a major college in a tough conference. It ain't like he was signed out of high school. Wood has about 200 more IP since High School than Leake. straw. man.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  16. #87
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: So Manny Parra has proven that you NEVER trade cheap starting pitching

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Reading is fundamental.

    I said he had a bad year at age 24. I may have mentioned that isn't all that uncommon. And Leake has had 2 bad seasons, not one. And this year his ERA is a full run better than his good year (his second season) despite having the lowest k/9 of his career.

    ERA is a poor indicator. Leake's 2011 is almost identical to this year, yet this year Leake's ERA is almost a run lower. He's on pace to give up 23 HR's. That is the ONLY thing he's really improved on. He's giving up fewer HR's.

    Citing their professional IP is irrelevant. Leake pitched 380 innings at a major college in a tough conference. It ain't like he was signed out of high school. Wood has about 200 more IP since High School than Leake. straw. man.
    A 4.23 ERA as a rookie is a "bad" season now, especially being 22 and having pitched not a single professional inning? Good grief, man. Your disgust for Leake is becoming overboard.

    Here are Leake's seasons: 2.94, 3.86, 4.23, 4.58.
    Here are Wood's seasons: 3.04, 3.51, 4.27, 4.84.

    Put it all together, and, again, you get a 3.88 ERA for Wood and a 3.94 ERA for Leake.

    For the record, their career xFIP: Leake 3.94 and Wood 4.43. Their career SIERA: Leake 4.07, Wood 4.43. Their career FIP: Leake 4.34, Wood 4.06. Truly, man, this whatever it is you have against Leake is blinding you from being objective. These two pitchers are very indifferent.
    Last edited by Brutus; 08-08-2013 at 01:18 PM.
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  18. #88
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    Re: So Manny Parra has proven that you NEVER trade cheap starting pitching

    Leake can't buy a K, he's more defense dependent. He gets POUNDED for hits every year. High hit rates. He limits walks and this year he's managed to suppress HR's, something he's NEVER done.

    Now, Brutus, if that is a new skillset, then Leake is a young version of Arroyo. If it is an aberration, and I'm pretty sure it is considering his home park, then he's due for a correction. 3 HR on the road, 12 at home.

    I simply prefer the LH starter that actually has a little bit of upside getting a strikeout. Leake not only can't do that well, he's actually regressing. Add diminished K totals to high hit totals and you get a recipe for blech.

    Case in point, his game against SF. He allowed just 1 run. on 12 hits. That's not lucky, it 's miraculous. He's like a human tee ball stand. Wood's K rate is better, his hit rate is better. His WHIP is better. These are the stats each pitcher has some degree of control over, and Wood is simply better than Leake. Maybe not a ton better, but better. Park Factor doesn't have much effect on a strikeout or walk. And GABP isn't going to give up that many more hits or HR's than Wrigley. Same division, so same schedule.

    And don't even get me started on them as hitters. As it stand, I want Wood playing 3B. .267 .298 .489 787... He's a beast.
    Suck it up cupcake.


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