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Thread: Arizona Fall League 2013 Info

  1. #121
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: Arizona Fall League 2013 Info

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    To lower our expectations of him.

    I personally went from expecting the next big time closer to expecting the next Logan Ondrusek in less than a month.
    You really should not allow the AFL to drastically change your opinions of one players. Especially those players who are converting from relievers to starters.

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  3. #122
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Arizona Fall League 2013 Info

    I look at AFL stats as if they're spring training stats. The sample size is small to begin with, and when you combine it with the fact that different players are working on different things in what are basically exhibition games to prepare for the upcoming season, I just wouldn't place any importance on the stats by themselves.

  4. #123
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Arizona Fall League 2013 Info

    Quote Originally Posted by Edd Roush View Post
    You really should not allow the AFL to drastically change your opinions of one players. Especially those players who are converting from relievers to starters.
    I know it is not rational, but I can't change how I feel. The beauty of having low expectations now is that when he comes up and dominates it will make it even better.
    Last edited by RedTeamGo!; 11-12-2013 at 05:34 PM.

  5. #124
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Arizona Fall League 2013 Info

    Quote Originally Posted by Edd Roush View Post
    You really should not allow the AFL to drastically change your opinions of one players. Especially those players who are converting from relievers to starters.
    Yes and no. Lorenzen came in as a bit of a wild card and, right or wrong, he got billed as a primo arm who had a high ceiling as a starter or could move quickly as a closer. We'll get a better feel for his long-term prospects next season, but I feel pretty confident in stating he's not a near-ready arm.

    If you thought you had a strong handle on Lorenzen, his AFL performance ought to be making you question that.
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  6. #125
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Arizona Fall League 2013 Info

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Here's my question on Lorenzen: what's the purpose of him pitching in the AFL this season? Regardless of what he might become in the future, he's just getting curb stomped right now. Part of development is putting players in situations where they can thrive and learn. I just don't see what Lorenzen is supposed to be gaining from this experience.
    Humility?

    I guess the Reds figured he was on the fast path, he got broken in gentlly as a reliever, and the AFL was supposed to let him tune his craft as a starter.

    I'm going to assume that Lorenzen is working on stuff.. Using pitches that aren't quite ready for prime time. He seems like a tough dude, I think he will come out of this fine. A big criticism on Cingrani was that he used 90% fastballs to blaze through the minors (and justifiably so).. If the Reds are using the AFL as a "spring training" experience for Lorenzen to work on stuff, I"m ok with it.
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  8. #126
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Arizona Fall League 2013 Info

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Here's my question on Lorenzen: what's the purpose of him pitching in the AFL this season? Regardless of what he might become in the future, he's just getting curb stomped right now. Part of development is putting players in situations where they can thrive and learn. I just don't see what Lorenzen is supposed to be gaining from this experience.
    Add innings to his arm.
    Throw more pitches to work on things he needs to work on.

    Not many guys right out of the draft are ready for the AFL. Lorenzen had less than 50 innings pitched in college. He needs innings, badly. This gets him innings.

    I would also argue that having guys fail is a part of development. You don't want their first failures at the big league level. You want to see how they handle it when it doesn't count as much.

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    Old school 1983 (11-12-2013), thatcoolguy_22 (11-21-2013)

  10. #127
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    Re: Arizona Fall League 2013 Info

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Add innings to his arm.
    Throw more pitches to work on things he needs to work on.

    Not many guys right out of the draft are ready for the AFL. Lorenzen had less than 50 innings pitched in college. He needs innings, badly. This gets him innings.

    I would also argue that having guys fail is a part of development. You don't want their first failures at the big league level. You want to see how they handle it when it doesn't count as much.
    This is beyond failure. He's putrid at the moment. I don't mind a guy struggling with a level that's a challenge for him, but Lorenzen's being sent out to slaughter at the moment.

    Innings are nice, but he could be building up arm strength with simulated games rather than getting raked during a negligible 20-25 IP in the AFL. This isn't a growth, it's punishment.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  11. #128
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Arizona Fall League 2013 Info

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    This is beyond failure. He's putrid at the moment. I don't mind a guy struggling with a level that's a challenge for him, but Lorenzen's being sent out to slaughter at the moment.

    Innings are nice, but he could be building up arm strength with simulated games rather than getting raked during a negligible 20-25 IP in the AFL. This isn't a growth, it's punishment.
    And what is it if you just pull him? It probably shows him that you have absolutely no faith in him. At this point you can't just shut it down. You told him the plan and without there being an injury, you can't deviate from that without telling him something that you don't want to tell him.

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  13. #129
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Arizona Fall League 2013 Info

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    And what is it if you just pull him? It probably shows him that you have absolutely no faith in him. At this point you can't just shut it down. You told him the plan and without there being an injury, you can't deviate from that without telling him something that you don't want to tell him.
    Shouldn't have gone to the AFL in the first place. Shut him down until next year - what was the rush anyway? He was just drafted in June.

  14. #130
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Arizona Fall League 2013 Info

    Only 50 innings in college and he needs innings but not this. That's what the developmental leagues are for. Given a high 90s fastball everyone wants immediate results and all the talk of Lorenzen cracking the bullpen last season? Crazy. This is a guy who was an outfielder in college and secondly a relief pitcher. He should be allowed time for a learning curve - and one thing he has definitely learned is that he isn't anywhere near ready. If the kid has some mental toughness he'll turn this the right way.
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    Re: Arizona Fall League 2013 Info

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    all the talk of Lorenzen cracking the bullpen last season? Crazy.
    There was something to that, but I don't think more than a few people actually know the full story. I think it was more a part of the contract negotiation than anything based on performance or projected performance. There was some kind of incentive to get him to the Reds in September if he was close to being ready. There were some legitimate sources talking about this. The fact that he played for four farm clubs over a matter of a couple of months supports that something was going on.

    Lorenzen has apparently lost his confidence and when that happens, bad things usually follow. If you look at the pitches-strikes ratio, it is clear that right now, he is not able to throw the ball where he wants it. Against that level of competition, you are going to pay a price when you can't hit your spots. I do not think this is anything that should be sending off any big alarms.

    Robert Stephenson was falling behind in the count in April of 2013 (remember...he was 0-3, 5.48 in April). By the second week of May, the same guy was virtually unhittable (4 earned runs over his last eight starts--three of those came in one game).

    Bottom line: outside of Chapman and Stephenson, there has been no other Reds prospect with a better arm than Lorenzen in the last 20 years. He got off the bus throwing 97 and showed a good breaking ball.
    Last edited by redsof72; 11-13-2013 at 10:58 AM.

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  17. #132
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    Re: Arizona Fall League 2013 Info

    Lorenzen has apparently lost his confidence and when that happens, bad things usually follow. If you look at the pitches-strikes ratio, it is clear that right now, he is not able to throw the ball where he wants it. Against that level of competition, you are going to pay a price when you can't hit your spots. I do not think this is anything that should be sending off any big alarms.
    Agreed. If confidence is the only issue, then far better this happen early in his career and pre-MLB than when he's pitching for the Reds.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  18. #133
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Arizona Fall League 2013 Info

    Quote Originally Posted by redsof72 View Post

    Bottom line: outside of Chapman and Stephenson, there has been no other Reds prospect with a better arm than Lorenzen in the last 20 years. He got off the bus throwing 97 and showed a good breaking ball.
    The Reds paid him a $1.5 million signing bonus and he had to take the bus to report???? Couldn't the guy spend the money for a plane ticket?

  19. #134
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Arizona Fall League 2013 Info

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Shouldn't have gone to the AFL in the first place. Shut him down until next year - what was the rush anyway? He was just drafted in June.
    I am fine with the argument that he shouldn't have gone to the AFL. But he did. Shutting him down just takes away anything he has left in his confidence department.

  20. #135
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Arizona Fall League 2013 Info

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    And what is it if you just pull him? It probably shows him that you have absolutely no faith in him. At this point you can't just shut it down. You told him the plan and without there being an injury, you can't deviate from that without telling him something that you don't want to tell him.
    I think he's aware that he's getting clobbered. You tell him that what he needs is to go back to the training facility and regain his command. Once that's back he'll be ready to tool on hitters like the ones he's facing right now.

    What I'd rather avoid is him doing something stupid or developing bad habits because he's in above his head at the moment. As long as the Reds have a concrete plan for him during the winter, I suspect he'd be fine with walking away from the AFL.
    Last edited by M2; 11-13-2013 at 05:47 PM.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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