I look at AFL stats as if they're spring training stats. The sample size is small to begin with, and when you combine it with the fact that different players are working on different things in what are basically exhibition games to prepare for the upcoming season, I just wouldn't place any importance on the stats by themselves.
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Yes and no. Lorenzen came in as a bit of a wild card and, right or wrong, he got billed as a primo arm who had a high ceiling as a starter or could move quickly as a closer. We'll get a better feel for his long-term prospects next season, but I feel pretty confident in stating he's not a near-ready arm.
If you thought you had a strong handle on Lorenzen, his AFL performance ought to be making you question that.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Humility?
I guess the Reds figured he was on the fast path, he got broken in gentlly as a reliever, and the AFL was supposed to let him tune his craft as a starter.
I'm going to assume that Lorenzen is working on stuff.. Using pitches that aren't quite ready for prime time. He seems like a tough dude, I think he will come out of this fine. A big criticism on Cingrani was that he used 90% fastballs to blaze through the minors (and justifiably so).. If the Reds are using the AFL as a "spring training" experience for Lorenzen to work on stuff, I"m ok with it.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
M2 (11-12-2013)
Add innings to his arm.
Throw more pitches to work on things he needs to work on.
Not many guys right out of the draft are ready for the AFL. Lorenzen had less than 50 innings pitched in college. He needs innings, badly. This gets him innings.
I would also argue that having guys fail is a part of development. You don't want their first failures at the big league level. You want to see how they handle it when it doesn't count as much.
Old school 1983 (11-12-2013),thatcoolguy_22 (11-21-2013)
This is beyond failure. He's putrid at the moment. I don't mind a guy struggling with a level that's a challenge for him, but Lorenzen's being sent out to slaughter at the moment.
Innings are nice, but he could be building up arm strength with simulated games rather than getting raked during a negligible 20-25 IP in the AFL. This isn't a growth, it's punishment.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
And what is it if you just pull him? It probably shows him that you have absolutely no faith in him. At this point you can't just shut it down. You told him the plan and without there being an injury, you can't deviate from that without telling him something that you don't want to tell him.
Old school 1983 (11-13-2013)
Only 50 innings in college and he needs innings but not this. That's what the developmental leagues are for. Given a high 90s fastball everyone wants immediate results and all the talk of Lorenzen cracking the bullpen last season? Crazy. This is a guy who was an outfielder in college and secondly a relief pitcher. He should be allowed time for a learning curve - and one thing he has definitely learned is that he isn't anywhere near ready. If the kid has some mental toughness he'll turn this the right way.
99% of all numbers only tell 33% of the story so when looking at the numbers remember that numbers is plural...
There was something to that, but I don't think more than a few people actually know the full story. I think it was more a part of the contract negotiation than anything based on performance or projected performance. There was some kind of incentive to get him to the Reds in September if he was close to being ready. There were some legitimate sources talking about this. The fact that he played for four farm clubs over a matter of a couple of months supports that something was going on.
Lorenzen has apparently lost his confidence and when that happens, bad things usually follow. If you look at the pitches-strikes ratio, it is clear that right now, he is not able to throw the ball where he wants it. Against that level of competition, you are going to pay a price when you can't hit your spots. I do not think this is anything that should be sending off any big alarms.
Robert Stephenson was falling behind in the count in April of 2013 (remember...he was 0-3, 5.48 in April). By the second week of May, the same guy was virtually unhittable (4 earned runs over his last eight starts--three of those came in one game).
Bottom line: outside of Chapman and Stephenson, there has been no other Reds prospect with a better arm than Lorenzen in the last 20 years. He got off the bus throwing 97 and showed a good breaking ball.
Last edited by redsof72; 11-13-2013 at 09:58 AM.
Edd Roush (11-13-2013)
Agreed. If confidence is the only issue, then far better this happen early in his career and pre-MLB than when he's pitching for the Reds.Lorenzen has apparently lost his confidence and when that happens, bad things usually follow. If you look at the pitches-strikes ratio, it is clear that right now, he is not able to throw the ball where he wants it. Against that level of competition, you are going to pay a price when you can't hit your spots. I do not think this is anything that should be sending off any big alarms.
I think he's aware that he's getting clobbered. You tell him that what he needs is to go back to the training facility and regain his command. Once that's back he'll be ready to tool on hitters like the ones he's facing right now.
What I'd rather avoid is him doing something stupid or developing bad habits because he's in above his head at the moment. As long as the Reds have a concrete plan for him during the winter, I suspect he'd be fine with walking away from the AFL.
Last edited by M2; 11-13-2013 at 04:47 PM.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
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