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Thread: some draft help please

  1. #1
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    some draft help please

    I am illiterate when it comes to the MLB draft....it has always confused me with first year player draft, comp picks, signing guys from out of the country....stuff like that so I basically just always defer these topics to Doug Dirt when he posts a tweet about players and draft stuff and just read his opinion and never really tried to understand anything.....

    with that said.....how are we looking for next years draft.....lets say we finish exactly where we are right now.....that pick aside, what other draft picks could we possible be looking at if we dont sign Choo and Bronson but we make them qualifying offers? and what are the balance picks and in short english, how are the chose?

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    Re: some draft help please

    We will likely be drafting in the high 20s again (it's done by inverse order of regular season record). We did not win the lottery for any competitive balance picks this year, so we won't have those.

    If we do make qualifying offers to Choo and Arroyo and they sign elsewhere, we will get that team's first round pick, so long as they draft after 15th overall. If they draft before then, we will instead get that team's second round pick.

    So, we could have as many as three picks in 15-30 range plus one (our second rounder) in the high 60s low 70s, or if they sign with bad teams, as little as one in the mid-to-late 20s, and three more in the 40-70 range.

    Either way if Choo and Arroyo turn down our qualifying offers to sign elsewhere, we should have a total of four picks in the top 70. Does that make sense?
    Go BLUE!!!

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    REDREAD (08-05-2013)

  5. #3
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    Re: some draft help please

    well covered. What happens in the unlikely event that the same team signs both players?

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    Re: some draft help please

    Quote Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT View Post
    well covered. What happens in the unlikely event that the same team signs both players?
    Good question, what's the answer?
    Reds fan since 1968 win or lose.

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    Re: some draft help please

    Quote Originally Posted by CmdrCody View Post
    Good question, what's the answer?
    In that case, I think we get their first and second round pick. (I think)
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Re: some draft help please

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    In that case, I think we get their first and second round pick. (I think)
    That's my thought, but it means you lose out if they are lower 15. You would get a second and a third? That would blow.
    Reds fan since 1968 win or lose.

  9. #7
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    Re: some draft help please

    Found the rule

    A club receives one compensatory draft pick between the 1st and 2nd rounds in the next First-Year Player Draft (MLB Rule 4 Draft) if an Article XX-B MLB free-agent subject to compensation signs a Major League contract with another MLB club. The MLB club that signs the player forfeits its 1st round selection in the Rule 4 Draft, unless it selects in the Top 10 of the 1st Round, in which case it will forfeit its next-highest pick. Additional draft picks will be forfeited in subsequent rounds if the club signs more than one Article XX-B MLB free-agent who is subject to compensation.

    So it's top 10, not top 15. Otherwise it's what was posted.
    Reds fan since 1968 win or lose.

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    Re: some draft help please

    If the season ended today, the Reds would have the 21st overall pick.
    Go BLUE!!!

  11. #9
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    Re: some draft help please

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    We will likely be drafting in the high 20s again (it's done by inverse order of regular season record). We did not win the lottery for any competitive balance picks this year, so we won't have those.

    If we do make qualifying offers to Choo and Arroyo and they sign elsewhere, we will get that team's first round pick, so long as they draft after 15th overall. If they draft before then, we will instead get that team's second round pick.

    So, we could have as many as three picks in 15-30 range plus one (our second rounder) in the high 60s low 70s, or if they sign with bad teams, as little as one in the mid-to-late 20s, and three more in the 40-70 range.

    Either way if Choo and Arroyo turn down our qualifying offers to sign elsewhere, we should have a total of four picks in the top 70. Does that make sense?

    thank you....makes good sense....I guess I understand the picks we would get for Choo and Bronson but I am still not understanding the whole lottery picks? how is that decided and why is that done....and when you say lottery, is it anything like the NBA lottery?

    scenario......what if we finish with the 10th worse record in baseball....that would mean we would be drafting 10th, correct? or do the lottery picks get tossed in ahead of us?

    another scenario.....what if we were drafting 1st, and we lose out on Choo and Bronson to teams ranked 11th and 12th in the draft.....that means we would be picking 1st, 11th and 12th and we also would have the chance at hitting on a lottery pick and if that were to happen we could possible have 4 top 15 picks? ..............I know that is a crazy scenario that probably never happens but its still a what if and to me that sounds a little silly to give a team that many top picks before top teams even pick 1 player......again, I am more than likely just confused on how the whole lottery works but the possiblity of a team having more than 2 top picks is actually pretty good if your team is one who allows their free agents to move on and bring up your younger talent.

    I am glad there are so many of you who understand all this draft stuff....I have always been confused by it....what is the rule 5 draft when we drafted Josh Hamilton? I think that was how we got him, maybe not? but what is the difference in that draft, the regular draft and isnt MLB making a change to teams signing all these players from out of the country, should they not be in the draft as well?

    I am starting to wrap my brain around it a little bit but I have much researching to do. Thanks again everyone for pitching in, keep the comments coming....

  12. #10
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    Re: some draft help please

    Rule 5 draft is simply a way to keep teams from stockpiling minor leaguers without promotion. The draft is in December and is unrelated to the amateur draft in June. If a kid is signed under the age of 18 then a team has his rights for 5 seasons before he must be added to the 40 man or exposed to the rule 5. If a kid is 19 or older, then his rights are for 4 years before Rule 5 exposure. A team must have a roster spot on the 40 man on the day of the draft. The player drafted must be kept on the 25 man roster for a full season (90 days active to prevent DL abuse) or be waived. If another team claims him, or if he is traded, those restrictions transfer to the new team. If he clears waivers he must be given back to his original team for a very small amount of money (I believe it's $25,000). The draft goes in reverse order of standings. A team cannot trade their pick position but they can draft and then trade a player (as said his restrictions going to his new team) which is how the Reds got Josh Hamilton from the Cubs who selected him in the Rule 5. After that first season the team may then option/designate the player as per normal rules.

  13. #11
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: some draft help please

    Competitive balance lottery picks are a new and different breed.
    The 10 smallest-market teams and the 10 lowest-revenue teams are placed in the lottery to have a chance to win a pick. There are six extra picks in 2014. There aren't 20 teams in the lottery because of crossover between the lists.

    Competitive Balance Lottery picks can be traded, but the trade must be made during the season - not at winter meetings. Last year teams took advantage of that rule, with two trades involving picks. The Marlins were in both. They traded lottery picks with the Tigers, giving up what ended up being pick No. 39 and receiving pick No. 73. They also added the Pirates' pick, No. 35, when they sent Gaby Sanchez to Pittsburgh at the Deadline.

    The odds are selected by winning pct - the worst team in the pool getting the highest chance of being selected at random by the computer. The picks come at the end of the first round(A) and second round(B). So they are essentially picks added to the end of the first 2 rounds, after other compensation picks and regular selections have been made.

    There is another lottery that hasn't been needed yet. It is for picks surrendered by going over signing limits. All teams that did not exceed limits are eligible and a random selection is made based on a percentage formula that includes revenue as well as win pct. So far, no team has forfeited a pick per this rule.

    Per your scenario - if you were drafting first and lost eligible players to #12 and #15 and had a lottery pick - say the first one, you would draft 1-12-15 and somewhere around 32-35
    Last edited by RedlegJake; 08-06-2013 at 11:05 AM.

  14. #12
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    Re: some draft help please

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/0...standings.html

    Nearly half the teams in baseball have virtually no chance of making the playoffs. For fans of those teams, the offseason can't come soon enough. However, MLBTR has a feature that can help those people get through the next few months: our reverse standings.

    The reverse standings, which are updated automatically each morning, serve as a projection of the 2014 amateur draft order. With a 36-74 record at present, the Astros are in good position to draft first overall for the third consecutive year in 2014, a sustained level of being the worst team in baseball that has never been done since the draft was instituted in 1965. The White Sox could jeopardize Jeff Luhnow's dream of adding Carlos Rodon to his stash next June, however, as our standings show they're only 4.5 games "behind" the Astros. The last first overall White Sox pick worked out pretty well, as they drafted Harold Baines in 1977. There's also a tight race for the fourth overall pick. The Brewers project to get that at the moment, but ten teams are within five games of them.

    Our reverse standings are also a good way to track which teams project to get protected first-round draft picks, meaning one in the top ten. You can always reference these standings on the right-hand sidebar under MLBTR Features. Enjoy!
    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/reversestandings2014

    Code:
    Projected 2014 Draft Order
    Pick	Team	                 W	L	W%	GB	 
    1	Houston Astros	        36	74	0.3273	0.0	
    2	Chicago White Sox	40	69	0.3670	4.5	
    3	Miami Marlins	        43	67	0.3909	7.0	
    4	Milwaukee Brewers	47	64	0.4234	10.5	
    5	Chicago Cubs	        49	62	0.4414	12.5	
    6	Minnesota Twins	        48	60	0.4444	13.0	
    7	San Francisco Giants	49	61	0.4455	13.0	
    8	New York Mets	        49	60	0.4495	13.5	
    9	Philadelphia Phillies	50	61	0.4505	13.5	
    10	Toronto Blue Jays	51	60	0.4595	14.5
    11	Toronto Blue Jays [1]	(2013 comp pick)				
    12	Colorado Rockies	52	61	0.4602	14.5	
    13	Los Angeles Angels	51	59	0.4636	15.0	
    14	San Diego Padres	52	60	0.4643	15.0	
    15	Seattle Mariners	52	59	0.4685	15.5	
    16	Washington Nationals	54	57	0.4865	17.5	
    17	Arizona Diamondbacks	56	55	0.5045	19.5	
    18	New York Yankees	57	53	0.5182	21.0	
    19	Kansas City Royals	56	52	0.5185	21.0	
    20	* Baltimore Orioles	61	51	0.5446	24.0	
    21	* Cincinnati Reds	61	51	0.5446	24.0	
    22	Texas Rangers	        62	50	0.5536	25.0	
    23	Los Angeles Dodgers	61	49	0.5545	25.0	
    24	Cleveland Indians	62	49	0.5586	25.5	
    25	Oakland Athletics	64	47	0.5766	27.5	
    26	Detroit Tigers	        64	45	0.5872	28.5	
    27	St. Louis Cardinals	65	45	0.5909	29.0	
    28	Tampa Bay Rays	        66	45	0.5946	29.5	
    29	Atlanta Braves	        67	45	0.5982	30.0	
    30	Boston Red Sox	        68	45	0.6018	30.5	
    31	Pittsburgh Pirates	67	44	0.6036	30.5
    Last edited by klw; 08-06-2013 at 11:07 AM.


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