Pete Rose 4256

[RedsBaron]

Ty Cobb missed the last month of the 1918 season...because there was no last month in 1918, as MLB closed the regular season around Labor Day due to World War I. Cobb then served in the military, but Germany's surrender on November 11, 1918 allowed Cobb to resume his baseball career the following spring. The shortened 1918 season probably cost Cobb between 30 and 50 hits.
Another advantage Pete Rose had over his likely competitors in achieving the career hits mark is that for most of his career Pete batted leadoff and, while Rose had decent mid-range HR power in his prime years between 1965 and 1971, usually getting 10 to 16 HRs a season, after 1971 Pete only reached double figures in HR once. While he did draw some walks, with a powerful lineup behind him and batting leadoff, Rose was in a perfect position for teams to pitch to him rather than around him.
Someone such as Trout, with more power than Rose ever had, is a player I would expect pitchers to be less likely to just throw strikes to, and is also a hitter I would expect to bat second and third in the lineup much more often than Rose ever did, especially as he ages. He probably will not rack up as many plate appearances, year in and year out, as Rose did.

[bucksfan2]

Its a selfish record. Actually eclipsing any major record requires quite a bit of being selfish. 20 years of 200 gets you to 4000 hits. In 2012 Mike Trout had 182 hits, he would need 20 more years at the same level to come close to what Pete did. That is 20 years of no significant injury without a bad season outside of his prime. Jeter is 5, 200 hit seasons away from Pete's record. Anyone thing Jeter can have a 200 hit seasons as a 44 year old? A more important question may be, does anyone see Jeter out there playing as a 44 year old?

[reds44]

Somebody will DH their way to the record eventually and it will be awesome.

[Big Klu]

Its a selfish record. Actually eclipsing any major record requires quite a bit of being selfish. 20 years of 200 gets you to 4000 hits. In 2012 Mike Trout had 182 hits, he would need 20 more years at the same level to come close to what Pete did. That is 20 years of no significant injury without a bad season outside of his prime. Jeter is 5, 200 hit seasons away from Pete's record. Anyone thing Jeter can have a 200 hit seasons as a 44 year old? A more important question may be, does anyone see Jeter out there playing as a 44 year old?

Actually, Trout would still be well short, as 21 x 182 = 3822, leaving him 434 hits short of Pete. Instead of 20 more seasons matching his rookie production, Trout needs 22-23 more seasons at that level.

[Chip R]

A more important question may be, does anyone see Jeter out there playing as a 44 year old?

I don't. I see him doing some kind of talk show based out of NYC. Could be sports; could be entertainment; could be both. I'm sure ESPN and MLB Network will have a bidding war over his services. But that almost seems too small for him.

[bucksfan2]

Actually, Trout would still be well short, as 21 x 182 = 3822, leaving him 434 hits short of Pete. Instead of 20 more seasons matching his rookie production, Trout needs 22-23 more seasons at that level.

I was just using round numbers. But you illustrated what happens if you fall short of that 200 mark in a number of seasons. All of a sudden instead of needing 21 straight 200 hit seasons to approach Pete's record you will need 22-23 or even more.

[vaticanplum]

I don't. I see him doing some kind of talk show based out of NYC. Could be sports; could be entertainment; could be both. I'm sure ESPN and MLB Network will have a bidding war over his services. But that almost seems too small for him.

He'll own a team or get into some kind of non-front-office management. My sense is that he's much more interested in the business side of things than being in front of the camera. I love Jeter, but he's not exactly the most sparkling media presence either.

[westofyou]

He'll own a team or get into some kind of non-front-office management. My sense is that he's much more interested in the business side of things than being in front of the camera. I love Jeter, but he's not exactly the most sparkling media presence either.

I think they'll stuff him and mount him in the rotunda.

[BluegrassRedleg]

I actually do think the hits record will fall at some point. It may or may not happen in the next few decades, but I think ultimately someone will grab it.

I thought there could be a chance of it, too, until things started swinging back toward the pitchers' favor in MLB. I no longer think anyone will have the endurance to grind it out.

[New York Red]

I thought there could be a chance of it, too, until things started swinging back toward the pitchers' favor in MLB. I no longer think anyone will have the endurance to grind it out.

I think money is a bigger factor. Pete was already gambling all his money away, and therefore had to continue to play and manage in order to keep from going broke. How many current 40-something hitters are still playing at a decent level AND drawing a huge paycheck? I can't think of one, and we'll likely never see it again.

[Red in Chicago]

Why did he need to play in '86? He hit 4,192 on 9/11/85.

oops

[Yachtzee]

I think 4256 is still doable. The only records I think are safe are pitching stats for career wins and wins in a season, because no manager in his right mind is going to send a star pitcher out there as much as Cy Young pitched. You'd have to be some freak of nature able to pitch into your 50s and pitch for some good teams to have a shot with the way today's pitchers are handled.

[KronoRed]

Yeah those pitching records are just impossible, unless the game fundamentally changes in some way.

I think the hits record is also pretty much impossible as the game is now, nobody wants to just hit singles.