If it weren't for the strike shortened season in '81, Rose would likely not have needed to play in '86.
Roy Tucker (08-06-2013)
Red in Chicago (08-07-2013)
Eric Stratton, Rush Chairman. Damn glad to meet ya.
"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH
Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS
Big Klu (08-07-2013)
I actually do think the hits record will fall at some point. It may or may not happen in the next few decades, but I think ultimately someone will grab it.
High BA type line drive hitters who get their start in the majors at a young age have a shot at the record. If they mix in longevity and durability, it gives them a better shot. Not to mention I do believe that medical advances, nutrition advances and fitness advances (legitimate fitness advances, not PEDs) may enable more and more guys to play at a higher level into their 40s.
Derek Jeter still had a decent chance at the record heading into this season, but injuries this year finally cost him a ton of hits and the odds are now much lower. Ichiro is a guy who had the perfect skill set, if only he started in the majors immediately instead of spending several seasons in Japan. Miguel Cabrera has a tiny chance, but I don't think it's likely - his body may break down on him too early.
The guy I'd watch is Trout. He turned 22 today, and he already has 352 hits. He gets a ton of PAs, and he's a high BA type hitter. Now all he needs is exceptional durability and longevity. Is it likely? Not really. But I think there's a chance Trout could make things interesting. Certainly enough of a chance to keep an eye on him over the next several years as his career continues to progress.
At the end of the day, I think of it like this: Ty Cobb played 100 years ago, and he put up 4,189 hits. He missed parts of season due to injuries, and he missed time serving in WWI. He also hit .323/.389/.431/.819 for an OPS+ of 112 in his very last season. His legs were shot by then, but he could still hit even when he retired. If the roles were reversed, and Cobb was chasing Rose's record, Cobb likely would have gotten it.
Last edited by Cyclone792; 08-07-2013 at 08:03 AM.
Barry Larkin - HOF, 2012
Put an end to the Lost Decade.
The Rally Onion wants 150 fans before Opening Day.