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Thread: A Little More From Joey V

  1. #91
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    Re: A Little More From Joey V

    Quote Originally Posted by KC2135 View Post
    This year Votto is at 12%
    A quick back of the napkin calculation shows that if he had converted his average number of base runners, he'd be sitting at 69 RBI.

    So the question then becomes why is he converting a lower percentage of runners this season than in year's past?

    I think we can rule out things like "forgot how to hit in the clutch" or "crumbling under the pressure."

    Is it fair to say he's hitting with less power than previous to his knee injury? I think it is.
    In the four full seasons prior to last season, he averaged 69 extra's base hits and 29 home runs. This season, he's on pace for 60 extra base hits and 24 homers.
    On a percentage basis, 40% of his hits went for extra bases in the first four years and 17% were home runs. This season, he's at 31% extra base hits and 12.6% home runs.

    So his power is clearly down. Whether that's an on-going concern or just random variation I'll leave to smarter minds to debate. And of course the season isn't over yet, there's still plenty of time for him to put together a huge week with 3-4 homers and a 3-4 doubles and he'd be back ahead of his average pace.

    However his ability to get on base has improved quite a bit. He's on pace for career highs in hits and walks. Compared to 2010, he's on pace to get on base an extra 45 times (in an extra 75 plate appearances.)

    So the better question is does this additional production of getting on base outweigh the production "lost" from the additional extra base hits.

    I'd say yes, but it underscores the needs of a team to fit the pieces together correctly. It's not so much a question as to who the better hitter is between Votto & Phillips or Votto & Bruce. Rather, it's a question of needing guys behind Votto who can drive in runners from first with their additional power and runners from third with a sac fly in order to maximize the value he's providing.
    When people say that I donít know what Iím talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
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  3. #92
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    Re: A Little More From Joey V

    Quote Originally Posted by RadfordVA View Post
    For this reason most hitting coaches will tell hitters to avoid as much as possible looking at or caring about any stats. A lot of it is out of the hitters control. All he can do is hit it hard. Sometimes that will be right at someone. People say it evens out over time and for most part it does but not always.

    I really like ESPN's attempt at the well hit average stat. Instead of just looking at BABIP lets truly look at each at bat and see if he hit it well or not. Seems like a good start.
    I definitely think there's a difference between measuring process(the hitter's mindset) and results. If I were coaching Votto, I'd be more concerned with process.
    "Get a good pitch, put a good swing on it, let the chips fall where they may."

    But as an outsider, without any access to his process for hitting, I think its fair to compare results. While the "hard hit ball" is good for quantifying how much of the variance is based on luck, it doesn't change the result.
    If I smoke 4 atom balls for outs, I'm still 0 for 4. If I beat out a swinging bunt, hit a 100 hopper through the infield, and get two bloop hits, I'm still 4 for 4.

    I think sometimes we fall into the trap of equating a lucky/unlucky result into one we can ignore. At the end of the season, there's no trophy for being the best team(disregarding unlucky breaks.) We also tend to put too much faith in luck evening out. While that's true over the long run, the long run might be two seasons or more. No matter what, we can't predict when and how the luck is going to run out. And the luck evening out may be effectively countered by increased confidence or better development.
    When people say that I donít know what Iím talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
    ---Joe Posnanski

  4. #93
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: A Little More From Joey V

    Find a pitch you like and whack it.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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    Re: A Little More From Joey V

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoosier Red View Post
    A quick back of the napkin calculation shows that if he had converted his average number of base runners, he'd be sitting at 69 RBI.

    So the question then becomes why is he converting a lower percentage of runners this season than in year's past?

    I think we can rule out things like "forgot how to hit in the clutch" or "crumbling under the pressure."

    Is it fair to say he's hitting with less power than previous to his knee injury? I think it is.
    In the four full seasons prior to last season, he averaged 69 extra's base hits and 29 home runs. This season, he's on pace for 60 extra base hits and 24 homers.
    On a percentage basis, 40% of his hits went for extra bases in the first four years and 17% were home runs. This season, he's at 31% extra base hits and 12.6% home runs.

    So his power is clearly down. Whether that's an on-going concern or just random variation I'll leave to smarter minds to debate. And of course the season isn't over yet, there's still plenty of time for him to put together a huge week with 3-4 homers and a 3-4 doubles and he'd be back ahead of his average pace.

    However his ability to get on base has improved quite a bit. He's on pace for career highs in hits and walks. Compared to 2010, he's on pace to get on base an extra 45 times (in an extra 75 plate appearances.)

    So the better question is does this additional production of getting on base outweigh the production "lost" from the additional extra base hits.

    I'd say yes, but it underscores the needs of a team to fit the pieces together correctly. It's not so much a question as to who the better hitter is between Votto & Phillips or Votto & Bruce. Rather, it's a question of needing guys behind Votto who can drive in runners from first with their additional power and runners from third with a sac fly in order to maximize the value he's providing.
    It is fair to say his power numbers are down, and it is fair to say his 'getting on base' numbers are up. I don't think, without really analyzing his ABs, that it is fair to say why.

    Has he changed approach? Is it a change in physical strength or bat speed? Is it random variation? Are pitchers less willing to challenge Joey?

    Certainly if I was a right-handed pitcher, knowing there was a guy a sub-700 OPS (against RHs) on deck, I would never intentionally give Joey anything he could drive.
    Last edited by puca; 08-08-2013 at 11:30 AM.

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  7. #95
    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: A Little More From Joey V

    A little more from Joey V?

    Lagniappe?

  8. #96
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    Re: A Little More From Joey V

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoosier Red View Post

    Is it fair to say he's hitting with less power than previous to his knee injury? I think it is.
    In the four full seasons prior to last season, he averaged 69 extra's base hits and 29 home runs. This season, he's on pace for 60 extra base hits and 24 homers.
    On a percentage basis, 40% of his hits went for extra bases in the first four years and 17% were home runs. This season, he's at 31% extra base hits and 12.6% home runs.

    So his power is clearly down. Whether that's an on-going concern or just random variation I'll leave to smarter minds to debate. And of course the season isn't over yet, there's still plenty of time for him to put together a huge week with 3-4 homers and a 3-4 doubles and he'd be back ahead of his average pace.
    I agree that Votto's power does appear to have deceased. I do not know why. Maybe his knee does bother him, maybe he has changed his approach, maybe it is just random variation.
    I always think of Ted Williams when I think of Joey Votto because Joey approaches hitting the same way Teddy Ballgame did, and is subject to a lot of the same misinformed criticism Williams suffered from. I know that Williams suffered a dip in HR power in 1948, his age 29 season. Having hit 37, 36, 38 and 32 HRs in his four previous seasons, Williams only hit 25 HRs in 1948 (he still hit .369 with 127 RBI). The next season Williams hit 43 HRs with 159 RBI.
    "Hey...Dad. Wanna Have A Catch?" Kevin Costner in "Field Of Dreams."

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  10. #97
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    Re: A Little More From Joey V

    For a batter like Votto who is both so skilled at contact and so cerebral, you just have to let him do his thing. He's gonna be up there guessing pitches and locations, fouling balls off, adjusting his hands, etc.... And if in the course of any at bat he takes 4 balls out of the zone and heads to first, I'm cool with that.

    Let's say men are on base for Joey in a critical situation. Should he swing (and miss) at a ball out of the zone on a 3-1 pitch just so he would have a chance to put a ball in play on the 3-2 pitch?

  11. #98
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    Re: A Little More From Joey V

    Last year, with higher OPS, Votto had 4 more RBI than he does now, with only 34 less PAs , so that is a pretty close comparison. The problem is not his, its having dogs in front of him the past two years. Last year it was both the 1-2 spots, this year its the 2 spot.
    Can't win with 'em

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  12. #99
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    Re: A Little More From Joey V

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    Last year, with higher OPS, Votto had 4 more RBI than he does now, with only 34 less PAs , so that is a pretty close comparison. The problem is not his, its having dogs in front of him the past two years. Last year it was both the 1-2 spots, this year its the 2 spot.
    This is not the case. He has more base runners, but is also converting a lower percentage of those baserunners.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
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    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

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    Re: A Little More From Joey V

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    This is not the case. He has more base runners, but is also converting a lower percentage of those baserunners.
    Interesting, but you're missing the point. "Converting" baserunners is not a skill. Moreover, counting "ribbies" is not a meaningful measure. Its just a really noisy, traditional counting stat that does not provide any reliable data to calculate a hitter's value.

    It could not be more glaring than to get all warm and fuzzy about BP's "clutch" job in the 4 hole this year because he has had uncanny (and unsustainable) timing with his hits this year. He has masked a poor hitting year with pats on the back for "clutch ribbies" this year, and obligatory helmet tap with his bat, while Votto continues to be an elite hitter, worth every freaking penny of his contract, yet gets dogged for not "converting baserunners," whatever the heck that means.
    Can't win with 'em

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    Re: A Little More From Joey V

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    Votto's going to have a 12 rbi game and there will be lots of "are ya happy NOW!?!?"

    YES!
    Mark Whiten hopes not.

  16. #102
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    Re: A Little More From Joey V

    Quote Originally Posted by mikemo14 View Post
    12 Errors for a first baseman in two thirds of a season is an extremely high number of errors in my book.
    Except errors don't begin to tell you what is actually going on out there. I agree that Votto's D has been a bit down this year -- but it hasn't been "awful." And in any case, errors are not the way to measure its value.

  17. #103
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    Re: A Little More From Joey V

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    Interesting, but you're missing the point. "Converting" baserunners is not a skill. Moreover, counting "ribbies" is not a meaningful measure. Its just a really noisy, traditional counting stat that does not provide any reliable data to calculate a hitter's value.

    It could not be more glaring than to get all warm and fuzzy about BP's "clutch" job in the 4 hole this year because he has had uncanny (and unsustainable) timing with his hits this year. He has masked a poor hitting year with pats on the back for "clutch ribbies" this year, and obligatory helmet tap with his bat, while Votto continues to be an elite hitter, worth every freaking penny of his contract, yet gets dogged for not "converting baserunners," whatever the heck that means.
    And....HOW!

    You said it better than anyone else.
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  18. #104
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    Re: A Little More From Joey V

    Quote Originally Posted by mikemo14 View Post
    If the Reds are going anywhere this year I think we need a little bit more from Votto. His defense this year has been lousy, he seems to make a lot more mental errors than he did in the past and although his BA and OBP are as solid as ever, the clutch hits seem to be few and far between. Here are his percentage of scoring baserunners compared to some other top players.
    Votto 38 runs knocked in- out of 301 baserunners (13%)
    In 2010 he was 77-391 20%
    M Cabrera 68-316 (22%)
    C Davis 62-277 (22%)
    Goldschmidt 67-290 (23%)
    Freeman 65-279 (23%)
    Encarnacion 60-290 (21%)
    McCutchen 49-279 (18%)
    A. Craig 76-306 (25%)
    Some Other Reds
    Phillips 73-358 (20%)
    Bruce 52-337 (15%)
    But then whenever his batting average and OBP go down there will be a thread about how "bad" JV has been. You can't win for losing sometimes!

  19. #105
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    Re: A Little More From Joey V

    Quote Originally Posted by KC2135 View Post
    This year Votto is at 12%
    People keep quoting this 12% like it means something without any context. Votto has been intentionally walked 13 times with RISP? Does this count as an instance of FBRI (Failure to bat runs in) or whatever we're calling this inane statistic?

    By my count atm Votto has gone 38/303 now. This is the stat including IBB. That's 12.5%. He has been intentionally walked 4 times with a runner on 2nd, 2 times with a runner on 3rd, one time 1st and 3rd, 5 times 2nd and 3rd. Do the math and that is 18 base runners he never even had a chance to knock in. Subtract from the total number of baserunners and Joey is at 38/285. 13.3%. That's his IBB-adjusted FBRI or whatever. Only Miggy, Robinson Cano, and David Ortiz have been walked intentionally more than Votto. I'm not going to do the math here but this should narrow the gap between Votto and every non-Miggy player on that list.

    This is just counting the walks that are officially IBB's. Looking for legitimate pitch-around BB's and not just hard-fought BB's will narrow the gap even more. He has 48 walks with runners on. Extrapolate that to the number of baserunners where Votto was semi-intentionally walked and it reasons to guess that the real % of FBRI is probably much closer to the numbers listed in the OP.

    Stats are deceiving. The stat used in the OP is deceiving. It has inherent biases that make it an egregious stat to use when evaluating how good a player is at batting runners in. Votto is not having a "horrible" year. He's having a year that is probably around or well above MLB average if you create some kind of adjusted-FBRI stat.

    Votto isn't the guy to be yelling at when freaking out about runners LOB. Phillips shouldn't be held up as a shining example either. He's batting just above .300 w/RISP atm but as we see this number is normalizing right now. Phillips has also GIDP 14 times on the season - the absolute worst result w/RISP. Compare this to Votto's 5. By the end of the season Phillips "clutch" production will not look so clutch.

    So where is the blame to be placed? I'm not going to begin to attack that question, but safe to say I take issue with anyone pointing the finger at Votto in any way. Not even going to get into Votto's fielding as that isn't the central issue posed in the OP.
    "He looked like a surfer kid from SoCal," manager Dusty Baker says. "He didn't say much, but you could tell he was cool."

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