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Thread: Jay Bruce appreciation thread...

  1. #31
    Pimpin...literally!!! dubc47834's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce appreciation thread...

    Quote Originally Posted by NebraskaRed View Post
    Hey, it's not another thread about Dusty's performance as manager, so it's definitely not unnecessary.

    He is defintiely one of the streakiest player I've ever seen (if not the most streakiest), but I agree with your assessment.

    Also, I like his hair.
    What I like about this year is his bad streaks haven't been nearly as bad, or at least they haven't lasted as long as they usually do. If this is the Jay bruce we are going to get from here on out, I will be very very happy!!!

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  4. #32
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    Re: Jay Bruce appreciation thread...

    Do/can the SABR people measure "streakiness"? I am curious if Jay really is streakier than others or if developed that reputation and so when people point out the streaks it's really just confirmation bias taking over. For example, off the top of my head, I can think of some long portions of this season where Choo couldn't be kept off base but then some very dark weeks. Phillips had a very good first few months and has been, well, not very good for almost two months now. Are they just as streaky as Bruce? I don't know, just raising the issue.

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  6. #33
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    Re: Jay Bruce appreciation thread...

    Quote Originally Posted by muethibp View Post
    Do/can the SABR people measure "streakiness"? I am curious if Jay really is streakier than others or if developed that reputation and so when people point out the streaks it's really just confirmation bias taking over. For example, off the top of my head, I can think of some long portions of this season where Choo couldn't be kept off base but then some very dark weeks. Phillips had a very good first few months and has been, well, not very good for almost two months now. Are they just as streaky as Bruce? I don't know, just raising the issue.
    I did just a small amount of research (picked a few player known to be hot and cold last season) and created a thread on this last year. My conclusion was no, he's not really any streakier than other players in baseball.

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=97534
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

  7. #34
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    Re: Jay Bruce appreciation thread...

    Interesting. Thanks. Doesn't really surprise me that there are others streakier - and I'm assuming that's a word - than Jay.

  8. #35
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    Re: Jay Bruce appreciation thread...

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    I did just a small amount of research (picked a few player known to be hot and cold last season) and created a thread on this last year. My conclusion was no, he's not really any streakier than other players in baseball.

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=97534
    I was referring to the streaks in his beautiful hair. I don't know what anyone else was talking about.

  9. #36
    Ripsnort wheels's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce appreciation thread...

    Jay has one adjustment to make.

    Guys are trying to pitch around him. If he'd just let it happen, his game would be almost perfect.
    "We know we're better than this, but we can't prove it." - Tony Gwynn

  10. #37
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce appreciation thread...

    Quote Originally Posted by wheels View Post
    Jay has one adjustment to make.

    Guys are trying to pitch around him. If he'd just let it happen, his game would be almost perfect.
    What makes you think that guys are pitching around Jay? Swinging at first pitch + first pitch strikes way > first pitch balls.

  11. #38
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    Re: Jay Bruce appreciation thread...

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    What makes you think that guys are pitching around Jay? Swinging at first pitch + first pitch strikes way > first pitch balls.
    What you just laid out there (rather astutely, I can add) tells me that he is being pitched around. Were he not, he'd be getting more fastballs.

    Maybe I'm misunderstanding your point.

    What I see, and it's something he should probably think about, is that guys are burying breaking stuff and he's jumping out of his shoes. Maybe he's reading fastball, knowing he may not see a good one to hit. A righty can drop one right on his shoetops, and a lefty, loogy type guy can throw a slider way outside and he will hack away. Now where I think you're correct is that they know he's gonna hack, so why throw a strike? Either way I think it's an adjustment he can make.
    "We know we're better than this, but we can't prove it." - Tony Gwynn

  12. #39
    The Future is Now Ghosts of 1990's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce appreciation thread...

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    His "on-pace-for" 3.2 WAR seems low to me.
    Yea, I've been watching it all year (Bruce's WAR) and I've been watching Bruce every night. He looks better to me in RF than a negative WAR defender. It's annoying. It makes me think WAR is a crock of crap.

    This is Jay Bruce's best season of his career - I don't care what advanced metrics say. Look at his LD rate. If he gets "Jay Bruce hot" one more time he's going to have insane numbers... 35 HR, 120 RBI, and .285, MVP type numbers.

    I'm proud of him and proud of the season he's had. I wish the Reds had locked him up for a career when they did Brandon and Votto but oh well, they might come to regret it.
    2009 Attendance Record: 3-5 2010 Attendance Record: 2-9
    2011 Attendance Record: 3-4 2012 Attendance Record: 3-4
    2013 Attendance Record: 5-2 2014 Attendance Record: 3-1

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  14. #40
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce appreciation thread...

    Quote Originally Posted by wheels View Post
    What you just laid out there (rather astutely, I can add) tells me that he is being pitched around. Were he not, he'd be getting more fastballs.

    Maybe I'm misunderstanding your point.

    What I see, and it's something he should probably think about, is that guys are burying breaking stuff and he's jumping out of his shoes. Maybe he's reading fastball, knowing he may not see a good one to hit. A righty can drop one right on his shoetops, and a lefty, loogy type guy can throw a slider way outside and he will hack away. Now where I think you're correct is that they know he's gonna hack, so why throw a strike? Either way I think it's an adjustment he can make.
    Now I think I am misunderstanding.

    55 PAs he puts the first ball in play. Where he does quite well.

    243 first pitch strikes not put in play. 192 for balls.

    If he was truly being pitched around, wouldn't / shouldn't he be seeing less of a skew towards strikes on the first pitch?

    Votto is close to 50/50.

  15. #41
    Ripsnort wheels's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce appreciation thread...

    If a first pitch strike is wholly indicative of that, then by your criteria no, he isn't being pitched around. But does a first pitch strike mean that in reality?

    I'm not going to argue semantically difficult meanings right now, so let's just say that if he laid off breaking stuff out of the zone, he'd be even better. Pitchers know he's likely to chase, so they rarely challenge him. It doesn't really matter what the count is.
    "We know we're better than this, but we can't prove it." - Tony Gwynn

  16. #42
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    Re: Jay Bruce appreciation thread...

    Quote Originally Posted by Ghosts of 1990 View Post
    Yea, I've been watching it all year (Bruce's WAR) and I've been watching Bruce every night. He looks better to me in RF than a negative WAR defender. It's annoying. It makes me think WAR is a crock of crap.

    This is Jay Bruce's best season of his career - I don't care what advanced metrics say. Look at his LD rate. If he gets "Jay Bruce hot" one more time he's going to have insane numbers... 35 HR, 120 RBI, and .285, MVP type numbers.

    I'm proud of him and proud of the season he's had. I wish the Reds had locked him up for a career when they did Brandon and Votto but oh well, they might come to regret it.
    I hate WAR because I think the defensive portion of it sucks.
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    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

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