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Thread: Is winning the division out of reach?

  1. #1
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    Is winning the division out of reach?

    This is not a thread bashing the Reds play or how the season has gone. I'm merely stating a question...is the division out of reach?

    The Reds are 7 games out on August 9. The Reds play the Pirates 6 more times. It's doubtful the Reds will win all 6 games. The Pirates have some tough games left, no question. But their remaining schedule appears to be medium difficulty. Of course the Pirates could choke.

    But with the Cardinals up 3 games on the Reds and the Pirates up 7 games, is winning the division in reach? Or better yet, at what point do you think the division is out of reach? I know you never say never, especially after some epic collapses the last few years by other teams, but what makes winning the division that much tougher is the Reds having to climb 2 teams.

    Thoughts?

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  3. #2
    Formerly Farsighted Fan sabometrics's Avatar
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    Re: Is winning the division out of reach?

    Winning the division is very very very unlikely at this point. Like < 5%.
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  4. #3
    Member powersackers's Avatar
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    Re: Is winning the division out of reach?

    Because I feel like doing some math

    Pirates 48 games left
    Reds 48 games left

    Assume Pirates win .550 the rest of the way

    They finish with 96 wins

    For us to get to 96 wins we must go 33-15 the rest of the season. WP% .686.

    Assume Pirates play .450 They win 92 games.

    For us to win 92 games we need to go 29-19 or WP% .604

    So can we win? Yes. Do I think Pit will play .450 and us .600? Unlikely. Just like Jay Bruce said, win everyday and that's all you can do.
    Attended 1976 World Series in my Mother's Womb. Attended 1990 World Series Game 2 as a 13 year old. Want to take my son to a a World Series Game in Cincinnati in my lifetime.

  5. #4
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Is winning the division out of reach?

    If the Pirates keep winning, yes.

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    Re: Is winning the division out of reach?

    My reasons for why it's not is in post #12 here:

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=102634

    Through the first two series by the REDS/Cards/Pirates, the REDS are on pace to win the Division if the Pirates cooperate, the Pirates are not cooperating, and the Cardinals have done worse than expected favoring the REDS, all when comparing it to the pace needed for the REDS to win the Division.

    The REDS lost the series to the Cards 2-1, but can make it up by winning in St. Louis 2-1, Aug 26-28. The REDS only needed to split with Oakland, but they swept Oakland 2-0.

    For the REDS to catch the Pirates, the Pirates needed to lose 2 of the 6 games @ home with Colorado/Florida, but they only lost 1.

    The Cardinals bested the REDS 2-1, but lost the series vs the Dodgers 3-1, where they should have split with them 2-2.

    It's baby-steps, but it's very possible for the REDS to still win the Division.

    I also know that it's virtually impossible to makes sense of what I'm saying, so leaving it at just "there's a legitimate chance" will have to suffice.

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  8. #6
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    Re: Is winning the division out of reach?

    we play the pirates 6 times, the pirates have some tough series (for example) against the cardinals left..

    so yes, there´s a chance to win the division (7 games in early august)

    is it likely? not really, but if the reds get hot they have the roster to win .600 of their games... and the pirates showed in the past, that they like to suck the past few weeks/months...

  9. #7
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    Re: Is winning the division out of reach?

    Quote Originally Posted by sabometrics View Post
    Winning the division is very very very unlikely at this point. Like < 5%.
    What was the % last year for the A's when they were 5 back with 9 to play?

    It happens more often than thought. The Pirates still will have a few more times to succumb to what their history says they'll do......Cards are a factor.

    It's baseball....what was the % of the Rockies winning 21 of 22 to make the playoffs about 5 years ago?

    What was the % for Detroit sweeping Cleveland in Cleveland when trailing in the 9th of game 1?

    What was the % for Corky having doubles in back to back at bats?

    It's baseball, we should watch and see.

  10. #8
    * Bat Votto Second * goreds2's Avatar
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    Re: Is winning the division out of reach?

    I expect nothing less than to win the division. It is good to have the Wild Card buffer though.

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  11. #9
    We Need Our Myths reds1869's Avatar
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    Re: Is winning the division out of reach?

    Winning the division is not likely. But it is definitely possible and we only need to look back one year to be reminded of that.

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    Re: Is winning the division out of reach?

    I haven't bought into the idea that the Pirates will fall off because they've done so in the past, and I still don't think they will.

    Could they lose first place? Sure. Could the Reds take the division? Sure. I don't think it's likely, though. The most likely scenario is that the Pirates take the division and the Reds and Cards take the two wild cards.

  13. #11
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    Re: Is winning the division out of reach?

    The Reds will make a serious run at the division at some point.

    Not sure if it will be enough to win it, but it'll happen.
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  15. #12
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Is winning the division out of reach?

    No, but it's a very steep hill to climb.

    Cool Standings has our chances of winning the division at 6.4%.

    Code:
    2013 NL Standings
    East		W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
    Atlanta		70	45	.609	 -	520	399	100.6	61.4	99.9	<0.1	99.9
    Washington	54	60	.474	15.5	419	458	77.1	84.9	<0.1	 1.7	 1.7
    New York	52	60	.464	16.5	453	483	76.5	85.5	<0.1	 1.6	 1.7
    Philadelphia	52	62	.456	17.5	440	519	73.0	89.0	<0.1	 0.2	 0.2
    Miami		43	70	.381	26	363	452	63.3	98.7	 0.0	<0.1	<0.1
    
    Central		W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
    Pittsburgh	70	44	.614	 -	445	385	96.5	65.5	54.7	44.5	99.2
    St. Louis	66	48	.579	4	561	421	94.9	67.1	38.9	59.5	98.4
    Cincinnati	63	51	.553	7	492	424	89.2	72.8	6.4	76.5	82.9
    Chicago		50	64	.439	20	448	486	72.1	89.9	 0.0	 0.2	 0.2
    Milwaukee	49	66	.426	21.5	445	510	68.0	94.0	 0.0	<0.1	<0.1
    
    West		W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	EXPW	EXPL	DIV	WC	POFF
    Los Angeles	64	50	.561	 -	457	430	89.9	72.1	82.9	 4.1	87.0
    Arizona		58	55	.513	5.5	473	462	83.2	78.8	16.4	11.3	27.7
    San Diego	52	62	.456	12	451	513	73.1	88.9	 0.3	 0.2	 0.5
    Colorado	52	64	.448	13	490	524	72.6	89.4	 0.2	 0.1	 0.3
    San Francisco	51	63	.447	13	431	490	72.6	89.4	 0.2	 0.1	 0.3
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 08-09-2013 at 09:20 AM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  17. #13
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Is winning the division out of reach?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    No, but it's a very steep hill to climb.

    Cool Standings has our chances of winning the division at 6.4%.
    I want to see what the Nerd Standings have to say. Raisor?

    It's quite possible to win the division. It's not like it's never been done before. Obviously the Reds need to get hot and the Bucs and Cards need to cool off. The Reds aren't going to win the division playing .500 ball the rest of the way.
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  19. #14
    Mon chou Choo vaticanplum's Avatar
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    Re: Is winning the division out of reach?

    I don't think the Reds will win the division, and I know this might sound crazy to a lot of you, but I like their chances in a one-game playoff better than in years past. Listen, I haven't felt like this is the Reds' year all year. Too many injuries and just a general sense of things which has only been heightened by the seasons the Cards and Pirates are having.

    But there's something to be said for the timing of momentum, and if the Reds have been lagging a bit all year -- in feeling if not in record -- then momentum might be on their side. Their roster should, knock on wood, be getting healthier at a point when a lot of others are due to break down. In both 2010 and 2012 the Reds were the division winners, kind of just happy to be there the first time and, I would say, expected to win the second time (and coming up against a team with great momentum, no less). If they go in this year as the WC underdogs, I'm wondering if that might in fact be good for them.

    I haven't felt great about the Reds in a while but if they keep their heads in it, they may have the chance to have a totally different approach to the postseason this year and timing may flip around to them through the end of the season. If they're healthy, I still like their chances in the postseason. All they have to do is get there.
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  21. #15
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Is winning the division out of reach?

    Is it possible that the Pirates could lose 5 in a row while the Reds win 5 in a row?

    While 50 games isn't a whole lot of time to make up a gap, crazy things happen over 50 games. Teams can get red hot and teams can go into a funk. Teams can win 10 in a row or lose 8 out of 10. I have no idea what the Pirates are going to do from here on out. It would surprise me if they didn't hit a rough patch.


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