Cards are losing 4-1 in the 4th. 2 games out with 9 to play? That seems surmountable (at least in theory).
Pirates are irrelevant at this point. Reds will have to beat them anyway if the division is going to be within reach, so it just comes down to the Reds being more than 2 games better than St Louis over the next 9.
EDIT: Now the Cards are down 4-3. *@^& Oswalt!