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Thread: Adam Dunn cleared waivers

  1. #16
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunn cleared waivers

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Why ignore his first 54 games?
    Which is more telling to how he's doing at the plate right now?

    Also.....they wanted him to be more aggressive early in the counts and he tried it up until late May when his numbers were just so insanely bad that he had to abandon ship. He was rarely walking and wasn't getting it done at all.

    I'm not saying bring him here at all...just stating he's not quite the joke many believe he is. And he had a span last year and the year before went 400+ attempts last year at 1st without an error. His glove has always been steady if he got there.

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  3. #17
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunn cleared waivers

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    Which is more telling to how he's doing at the plate right now?

    Also.....they wanted him to be more aggressive early in the counts and he tried it up until late May when his numbers were just so insanely bad that he had to abandon ship. He was rarely walking and wasn't getting it done at all.

    I'm not saying bring him here at all...just stating he's not quite the joke many believe he is. And he had a span last year and the year before went 400+ attempts last year at 1st without an error. His glove has always been steady if he got there.
    I see a 54-game sample and a 60-game sample, both about a third of a season and both highly subject to random fluctuation of being small, two-month samples.

    I don't see any difference between the two other than narrative of what someone wants to spin.

    You're just as likely to get the 54-game Adam Dunn as you would be the 60-game Dunn, although it's probably likely you'll get the average of the two Dunns. Then again, because it's a small sample, and with his bizarre ups and downs the past couple of years, it could be anything in between.

    Dunn is a bad, bad idea. People were referring to Mike Morse being a statue, but Dunny at this point is a rotting statue. If he continued to OPS .900 it would probably still be a slight upgrade, but I would not be counting on that.

    There's a reason not a single team claimed him.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  4. #18
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunn cleared waivers

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    Which is more telling to how he's doing at the plate right now?
    The larger sample.

    I'm surprised if anyone here truly thinks that Dunn will continue hitting .280 (which is essentially what is putting his OPS in the +.900 range at the moment. He's not that hitter anymore. If you acquire Dunn, you are likeley getting what he has been the last few years. An .800 OPS bat, at a hitter's position, that fields incredibly poorly. Ie. your getting a guy with more flaws than strengths, and it just "another guy" to throw in the LF mix.

  5. #19
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    Re: Adam Dunn cleared waivers

    Not surprised Dunn is putting up numbers once his team is out of it. He's made quite the career doing that.

  6. #20
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunn cleared waivers

    How badly do the Reds really need a DH against RHPs?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  7. #21
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunn cleared waivers

    Dunn, for the entire season has an OPS+ of 111. A team like the Orioles who have no one for the DH spot, would be much improved by acquiring Dunn IMO.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  8. #22
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunn cleared waivers

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Dunn, for the entire season has an OPS+ of 111. A team like the Orioles who have no one for the DH spot, would be much improved by acquiring Dunn IMO.
    True, but even then, he's become a platoon DH. His OPS+ is only above average because they've not hit him against most left-handers. The league-wide split of RHP/LHP is about 2:1. Dunn's splits right now are over 3:1, which means they're not hitting him against a lot of LHP.

    His OPS against LHP this year is .669. He's only valuable when facing right-handers, and even then his year-long OPS is only marginally good enough to justify playing in the field.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  9. #23
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunn cleared waivers

    I love Adam Dunn.

    I would not love to see Adam Dunn play the field at this point in time.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

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  11. #24
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunn cleared waivers

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    Which is more telling to how he's doing at the plate right now?
    Probably his last 5-600 PAs.

    I know what you're saying but I think if the last 60 game approach is "real," it will manifest itself over the long run.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  12. #25
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunn cleared waivers

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    True, but even then, he's become a platoon DH. His OPS+ is only above average because they've not hit him against most left-handers. The league-wide split of RHP/LHP is about 2:1. Dunn's splits right now are over 3:1, which means they're not hitting him against a lot of LHP.

    His OPS against LHP this year is .669. He's only valuable when facing right-handers, and even then his year-long OPS is only marginally good enough to justify playing in the field.
    Guy has 446 PAs on August 9th. They can't be sitting him too much. The White Sox have played 114 games and Dunn has appered in 108 of them. I think the 3:1 is more about there being a lot more RHP than LHP which is good for having Dunn. Again, a team in need of a DH wouldn't need to worry about Dunn in the field.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  13. #26
    My clutch is broken RichRed's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunn cleared waivers

    Quote Originally Posted by Larkin Fan View Post
    If Dunn was added to the roster, Dusty's head would explode from trying to figure out where to place all the lefties.
    It would drive Marty into retirement.

    That said, I'm pretty sure Dunn's ticket out of Cincinnati was of the one-way variety.
    "I can make all the stadiums rock."
    -Air Supply

  14. #27
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunn cleared waivers

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Guy has 446 PAs on August 9th. They can't be sitting him too much. The White Sox have played 114 games and Dunn has appered in 108 of them. I think the 3:1 is more about there being a lot more RHP than LHP which is good for having Dunn. Again, a team in need of a DH wouldn't need to worry about Dunn in the field.
    The league-wide split of all plate appearances against in the majors is 2:1 of RHP to LHP. So that split already takes into account the ratio of RHP/LHP.

    Thus, Dunn is apparently fortunate he hasn't faced nearly as many LHP on the Sox as most of the rest of the majors has to face. If he had anything near a 2:1 split like the league as a whole, he'd probably have an OPS no better than league average.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  15. #28
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunn cleared waivers

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    The league-wide split of all plate appearances against in the majors is 2:1 of RHP to LHP. So that split already takes into account the ratio of RHP/LHP.

    Thus, Dunn is apparently fortunate he hasn't faced nearly as many LHP on the Sox as most of the rest of the majors has to face. If he had anything near a 2:1 split like the league as a whole, he'd probably have an OPS no better than league average.
    Dunn has 26 HR, the 25th best OPS in the AL and would be replacing a guy with a .591 OPS as the DH on an Oriole team fighting for a play-off spot. Can't think of too many situations where the upgrade would be any more impactful. Sometimes we look too hard at this stuff.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  16. #29
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunn cleared waivers

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Dunn has 26 HR, the 25th best OPS in the AL and would be replacing a guy with a .591 OPS as the DH on an Oriole team fighting for a play-off spot. Can't think of too many situations where the upgrade would be any more impactful. Sometimes we look too hard at this stuff.
    I wasn't disagreeing he would be an upgrade to the Orioles specifically. But most teams, even at DH, he would not be an upgrade especially if given a more normalized RHP/LHP split.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  17. #30
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Adam Dunn cleared waivers

    Dunn is also due roughly $5M for this season and $15M for 2014. And again, he can't play the field and really hasn't hit lefties well for three years.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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