What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

[Crumbley]

What are you to make of NL WAR? Some of your biases and erroneous preconceived notions about player valuation have been exposed?

Shoot me.

[nate]

One thing about Frazier/Bruce and WAR for instance - I don't like to measure WAR numbers of players at different positions - it's apples to oranges. RF comped to RFer, 3B to 3B, SS to SS. For instance in fangraphs calculation of WAR the difference in Runs is a swing of 10 in favor of the third baseman - which when you compare a third baseman to a RFer means that the solid 3rd base defender gets a fair boost in his WAR via defense which the RFer doesn't (the RFer is actually dunned -7.5 Runs). SS to RF has an even higher run value difference. If you don't understand this valuation by position you are bound to make erroneous judgements looking at WAR.

Just to illustrate this point:

In 2012, the average NL RF had 247 chances.

The average NL 3B had 412 chances.

[TOBTTReds]

Carlos Gomez No. 1. Andrelton Simmons No. 7. Starling Marte No. 8.


Shirley (sic) you can't be serious, WAR.

To reply more specifically...

Gomez has a 132 OPS+, 30 SB's, outstanding CF'er.

Marte has a 121 OPS+, 33 SB's, outstanding defensively (and plays in large LF, which helps his fielding metrics)

I don't see anything wrong with that.

As for Simmons, it's been discussed, but we don't really know the value of his defense, even with all the metrics. I think it is tough to doubt the numbers unless you know for sure. He's unbelievable in the field though.

[New York Red]

Right fielders in the NL are pretty good as a whole and 3rd baseman in the NL are not strong this year at all.

Bruce is not a good base runner (but too much weight on base running).....and somehow he doesn't grade well in RF.

Bruce has a negative career defensive WAR, which tells you what a joke that stat is. Because of his reputation, most baserunners won't even risk attempting an extra base on him. WAR doesn't even consider that.

[New York Red]

Just to illustrate this point:

In 2012, the average NL RF had 247 chances.

The average NL 3B had 412 chances.

When is the last time a runner chose to not run because of the third baseman's reputation? Besides never?

[Raisor]

I don't mind using WAR to compare players plaing the same position. My main problem is that I'm not sure how accurate the differences in weight given to the different positions are.

For WAR to be accurate in comparing Frazier and Bruce (just as an example) then the weighted difference between 3b and RF has to be accurate. I'm not sure we are there yet.

[New York Red]

I don't mind using WAR to compare players plaing the same position. My main problem is that I'm not sure how accurate the differences in weight given to the different positions are.

For WAR to be accurate in comparing Frazier and Bruce (just as an example) then the weighted difference between 3b and RF has to be accurate. I'm not sure we are there yet.

How do you weigh something that doesn't happen? As in runners not attempting an extra base because of the OF's reputation? I laugh every time someone tries to run on Bruce, though it doesn't happen often. They know better.

[westofyou]

Shoot me.

Then me

[Patrick Bateman]

Biggest thing is that WAR defense fluctuates a lot season to season, and hard to pin a lot one one season's defensive WAR.

So in the case of Simmons, I buy that him being a super elite defensive SS could vault him into a pretty high standard of value because of the amount of chances he sees at SS, at the same time, hard to neccessarily describe him as being that elite without seeing it over multiple seasons. But considering the success he had last year too, it's possible.

In regards to Gomez and Marte.... if you play a skill position, play it really well, AND can handle the bat to at least an average level, then you are going to be a really valuable player. In their cases, they are doing more than average hitting, and are both dynamic athletes... I can easily buy the defensive value they have been bringing to the table.

[Raisor]

How do you weigh something that doesn't happen? As in runners not attempting an extra base because of the OF's reputation? I laugh every time someone tries to run on Bruce, though it doesn't happen often. They know better.

Quiet. Adults are speaking.

[westofyou]

Quiet. Adults are speaking.

It's a valid question that any responsible adult should try and answer

[Raisor]

It's a valid question that any responsible adult should try and answer

I didn't actually read what he wrote. Usually it's just a emoticon displaying disdain.

[OnBaseMachine]

Then me

Me next.

Such arrogance. The original post didn't call for that type of remark.

[VR]

How do you weigh something that doesn't happen? As in runners not attempting an extra base because of the OF's reputation? I laugh every time someone tries to run on Bruce, though it doesn't happen often. They know better.

This is one area where WAR, or any measurement, just can't....and likely never will truly be, a firm judge of a player's value. There are hundreds of situations just like the one you mention that are circumstantial, and no software program will ever be able to capture them.

[Brutus]

WAR is unreliable if it is used as an absolute measure. It is very useful as a rough indicator of a player's value. Whether you are into new stats, or prefer the more traditional ones, ALL stats are interlocked - they can't be used independently of other stats to form judgements. That is where WAR gets in trouble, imo. Too many fans misunderstand it and assume it is the ultimate measure of a player and they can ignore other stats. What's his WAR? Most fans on Redszone are more astute than that. WAR is just another number and formula to use in evaluation. If you depend on it as THE stat, then you'll get in dutch. As for the defensive metrics, they are vastly improved over what they were just 5 years ago - as they are harder to quantify, it stands to reason there are going to be some problems but computers and cameras are making it better and better - the eye meets the numbers so to speak.

One thing about Frazier/Bruce and WAR for instance - I don't like to measure WAR numbers of players at different positions - it's apples to oranges. RF comped to RFer, 3B to 3B, SS to SS. For instance in fangraphs calculation of WAR the difference in Runs is a swing of 10 in favor of the third baseman - which when you compare a third baseman to a RFer means that the solid 3rd base defender gets a fair boost in his WAR via defense which the RFer doesn't (the RFer is actually dunned -7.5 Runs). SS to RF has an even higher run value difference. If you don't understand this valuation by position you are bound to make erroneous judgements looking at WAR.

Basically WAR is comparing the value of one player to his position over replacement to another player at his position to a replacement. For players at the same positions, it's an apples-to-apples comparison. For players at different positions, adjustments are made in the calculation so that one could say "this shortstop is worth more at his position than a third baseman is to his."

That said, because the point of the stat is to nail down an exact run/win value, and because defensive metrics are still a little sloppy in exact measurements, it's certainly a number that has to be taken with a grain of salt.