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Thread: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

  1. #16
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    WAR is unreliable if it is used as an absolute measure. It is very useful as a rough indicator of a player's value. Whether you are into new stats, or prefer the more traditional ones, ALL stats are interlocked - they can't be used independently of other stats to form judgements. That is where WAR gets in trouble, imo. Too many fans misunderstand it and assume it is the ultimate measure of a player and they can ignore other stats. What's his WAR? Most fans on Redszone are more astute than that. WAR is just another number and formula to use in evaluation. If you depend on it as THE stat, then you'll get in dutch. As for the defensive metrics, they are vastly improved over what they were just 5 years ago - as they are harder to quantify, it stands to reason there are going to be some problems but computers and cameras are making it better and better - the eye meets the numbers so to speak.

    One thing about Frazier/Bruce and WAR for instance - I don't like to measure WAR numbers of players at different positions - it's apples to oranges. RF comped to RFer, 3B to 3B, SS to SS. For instance in fangraphs calculation of WAR the difference in Runs is a swing of 10 in favor of the third baseman - which when you compare a third baseman to a RFer means that the solid 3rd base defender gets a fair boost in his WAR via defense which the RFer doesn't (the RFer is actually dunned -7.5 Runs). SS to RF has an even higher run value difference. If you don't understand this valuation by position you are bound to make erroneous judgements looking at WAR.

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    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by junkhead View Post
    Of course, I have read it.
    Why? Do you think that fangraphs' WAR is more accurate than baseball-reference' WAR?

    According to Fangraphs, Frazier(2.6) has a higher WAR than Bruce(2.3).
    How can you explain this?
    1) Fangraphs is generally regarded as being more accurate because UZR is a more reliable measure than Runs Saved, although neither is really that accurate in a single season. This was pretty clear in the article that I linked.

    2) Frazier is +9 in fielding according to Fangraphs while Bruce is -1. Frazier also has accrued more runs on the basepads than Bruce has, 1.2 to -0.3. There's your difference. It's pretty clear to see in the far right 4 columns on Fangraphs that the differences in player value are there.
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    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by junkhead View Post
    Of course, I have read it.
    Why? Do you think that fangraphs' WAR is more accurate than baseball-reference' WAR?

    According to Fangraphs, Frazier(2.6) has a higher WAR than Bruce(2.3).
    How can you explain this?
    Right fielders in the NL are pretty good as a whole and 3rd baseman in the NL are not strong this year at all.

    Bruce is not a good base runner (but too much weight on base running).....and somehow he doesn't grade well in RF.

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    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by BluegrassRedleg View Post
    Carlos Gomez No. 1. Andrelton Simmons No. 7. Starling Marte No. 8.

    WTMcF?

    Shirley (sic) you can't be serious, WAR.
    I wouldn't use BR.com's WAR.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  7. #20
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    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    What are you to make of NL WAR? Some of your biases and erroneous preconceived notions about player valuation have been exposed?
    Shoot me.

  8. #21
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    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    One thing about Frazier/Bruce and WAR for instance - I don't like to measure WAR numbers of players at different positions - it's apples to oranges. RF comped to RFer, 3B to 3B, SS to SS. For instance in fangraphs calculation of WAR the difference in Runs is a swing of 10 in favor of the third baseman - which when you compare a third baseman to a RFer means that the solid 3rd base defender gets a fair boost in his WAR via defense which the RFer doesn't (the RFer is actually dunned -7.5 Runs). SS to RF has an even higher run value difference. If you don't understand this valuation by position you are bound to make erroneous judgements looking at WAR.
    Just to illustrate this point:

    In 2012, the average NL RF had 247 chances.

    The average NL 3B had 412 chances.
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    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by BluegrassRedleg View Post
    Carlos Gomez No. 1. Andrelton Simmons No. 7. Starling Marte No. 8.


    Shirley (sic) you can't be serious, WAR.
    To reply more specifically...

    Gomez has a 132 OPS+, 30 SB's, outstanding CF'er.

    Marte has a 121 OPS+, 33 SB's, outstanding defensively (and plays in large LF, which helps his fielding metrics)

    I don't see anything wrong with that.

    As for Simmons, it's been discussed, but we don't really know the value of his defense, even with all the metrics. I think it is tough to doubt the numbers unless you know for sure. He's unbelievable in the field though.

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    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    Right fielders in the NL are pretty good as a whole and 3rd baseman in the NL are not strong this year at all.

    Bruce is not a good base runner (but too much weight on base running).....and somehow he doesn't grade well in RF.
    Bruce has a negative career defensive WAR, which tells you what a joke that stat is. Because of his reputation, most baserunners won't even risk attempting an extra base on him. WAR doesn't even consider that.
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    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    Just to illustrate this point:

    In 2012, the average NL RF had 247 chances.

    The average NL 3B had 412 chances.
    When is the last time a runner chose to not run because of the third baseman's reputation? Besides never?
    "I talked to an advance scout that told me if Joey Votto and Albert Pujols were on the same team he'd advise his team to do the unthinkable...pitch around Votto to get to Pujols." - Buster Olney, ESPN

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    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    I don't mind using WAR to compare players plaing the same position. My main problem is that I'm not sure how accurate the differences in weight given to the different positions are.

    For WAR to be accurate in comparing Frazier and Bruce (just as an example) then the weighted difference between 3b and RF has to be accurate. I'm not sure we are there yet.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    I don't mind using WAR to compare players plaing the same position. My main problem is that I'm not sure how accurate the differences in weight given to the different positions are.

    For WAR to be accurate in comparing Frazier and Bruce (just as an example) then the weighted difference between 3b and RF has to be accurate. I'm not sure we are there yet.
    How do you weigh something that doesn't happen? As in runners not attempting an extra base because of the OF's reputation? I laugh every time someone tries to run on Bruce, though it doesn't happen often. They know better.
    "I talked to an advance scout that told me if Joey Votto and Albert Pujols were on the same team he'd advise his team to do the unthinkable...pitch around Votto to get to Pujols." - Buster Olney, ESPN

  15. #27
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    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by Crumbley View Post
    Shoot me.
    Then me

  16. #28
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Biggest thing is that WAR defense fluctuates a lot season to season, and hard to pin a lot one one season's defensive WAR.

    So in the case of Simmons, I buy that him being a super elite defensive SS could vault him into a pretty high standard of value because of the amount of chances he sees at SS, at the same time, hard to neccessarily describe him as being that elite without seeing it over multiple seasons. But considering the success he had last year too, it's possible.

    In regards to Gomez and Marte.... if you play a skill position, play it really well, AND can handle the bat to at least an average level, then you are going to be a really valuable player. In their cases, they are doing more than average hitting, and are both dynamic athletes... I can easily buy the defensive value they have been bringing to the table.

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    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by New York Red View Post
    How do you weigh something that doesn't happen? As in runners not attempting an extra base because of the OF's reputation? I laugh every time someone tries to run on Bruce, though it doesn't happen often. They know better.
    Quiet. Adults are speaking.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Quiet. Adults are speaking.
    It's a valid question that any responsible adult should try and answer

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