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Thread: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

  1. #31
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    WAR, like any stat cannot be relied on as the be all end all. It's nice to use as a ballpark of comparing values of players, especially when there are multiple seasons of data to work with.

    But at the same time, each of its components need to be looked at with a giant grain of salt. We often look at items like BAPIP, value with runners in scoring position, etc. to properly evaluate whether OPS or other stats of a player are a true reflection of that player's talent level. WAR doesn't do that for us. Defensively, you can look at players like Nyjer Morgan who happened to couple a great defensive WAR season with his best offensive season which saw him spike up the WAR leader charts. Was he really one of the best players in baseball during that season? Of course not.

    WAR, like any stat, needs to be looked at with proper context. If a player really is elite defenisvely, looking at this year's defensive WAR as justification is not proper evidence. If a guy is truly elite defenisvely, it will show in numerous ways beyond WAR, and will do so for numerous seasons.

    I prefer to use WAR when sample sizes have been properly set to remove the noise of year to year fluctuations, and when we are trying to compare players with different positions. I find it useful in trying to compare, say, who is a more valuable player, Buster Posey or Joey Votto? I like that WAR is able to compare positional value defensive value, offensive value, and baserunning all in one number. If used in proper context, it is a good way of measuring all of the components and assigning a number value to it. Otherwise, how else is it possible to assign a number value to a player's total production?

    Like any stat, context is important. You can't determine the MVP of the season simply by looking at the WAR leaderboards at the end of the season because there are too many factors to consider. It's one piece of the puzzle, and if used correctly, I think it can be a very valuable piece of the puzzle. But I think at the same time it is not used in the proper way. Simply because Simmons and Gomez are at the of the list at the moment doesn't mean it is a useless stat. it just means that I think we need to apply some context to what it is telling us to be used appropriately.

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  3. #32
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    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Why are we shooting people and talking about WAR? I've sort of lost who is replying to who on this thread w/out direct quotes.

  4. #33
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by TOBTTReds View Post
    Why are we shooting people and talking about WAR? I've sort of lost who is replying to who on this thread w/out direct quotes.
    Read posts 4 and 5 on this thread.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  5. #34
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    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Read posts 4 and 5 on this thread.
    I did...I don't find Jojo's posts that offensive (if that's what the remarks were about).

    I think the OP has a fine reputation though, so maybe that part of it wasn't called for.

  6. #35
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by TOBTTReds View Post
    I did...I don't find Jojo's posts that offensive (if that's what the remarks were about)
    Exactly.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  7. #36
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by TOBTTReds View Post
    I did...I don't find Jojo's posts that offensive (if that's what the remarks were about).

    I think the OP has a fine reputation though, so maybe that part of it wasn't called for.
    It was a pretty rude response to an innocent thread.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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  9. #37
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by TOBTTReds View Post
    Why are we shooting people and talking about WAR? I've sort of lost who is replying to who on this thread w/out direct quotes.

    Someone hates defensive metrics and picked out a seeming outlier from a list of WAR to make an argument that defensive metrics suck and WAR is total garbage.

    I think the total shock of such a novel approach has everyone on edge especially since there haven't been any let alone many past instances of similar threads to desensitize everyone to the revelation.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  10. #38
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    It was a pretty rude response to an innocent thread.
    Not really. This very discussion has a long, grey beard and an OP that ignores its wrinkles and sagely history to essentially act like we're holding a newborn deserves some snark and and a gentle redirection to the archives. Not much is gained by resetting the discussion to a blank page.

    If there truly wasn't knowledge of the rich discussion and the thread was truly motivated by an honest desire to learn more about WAR, being pointed to the archives would be greatly appreciated.
    Last edited by jojo; 08-10-2013 at 01:56 PM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  11. #39
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    fWAR is a better indicator of who the best player was than HR, RBI and batting average or ERA and pitching Wins.

    It is also imperfect, yes.

    Fortunately, the range of superlatives from perfect to anti-perfect is wide so we don't have to be perfect in order to be better.

    As Mr. Bateman said, using fWAR to establish a hierarchy of who was best allows further research. For example, looking at components like wOBA, xFIP, et al. can give an idea about who is likely to continue being "best" going forward and who isn't. One can break those components down further into useful granular stats like BA, HR, K/9 and so one. It's also possible to look at how said player created his "bestness" - through defense, offense and pitching.

    Although I'm not a fan of br.com's WAR (bWAR? rWAR? I can't remember), I think it's noble of them to create a similar measure and it can be useful and interesting to discuss wide variations between the two systems.

    So if we want to have a real conversation about WAR and it's uses, that would be great.

    If we want to have bickering, neener-neenering and nonversational nonsense, let's just close the thread now.

    Choose your adventure.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

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  13. #40
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Not really. This very discussion has a long, grey beard and an OP that ignores its wrinkles and sagely history to essentially act like we're holding a newborn deserves some snark and and a gentle redirection to the archives. Not much is gained by resetting the discussion to a blank page.

    If there truly wasn't knowledge of the rich discussion and the thread was truly motivated by an honest desire to learn more about WAR, being pointed to the archives would be greatly appreciated.
    I know it's been said on more than one occasion that ORG is not a place for snark and it's supposed to be above that sort of conduct. You've stated that very thing on many occasions with others. What good is a sermon if the preacher isn't going to heed his own lessons?

    A gentle nudge toward the archives is fine, though there was nothing gentle about the way it was handled. Nonetheless, one should not conflate a perceived ignorance of history with what may just simply be a natural right to skepticism about a stat that does have some natural flaws.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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  15. #41
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    I know it's been said on more than one occasion that ORG is not a place for snark and it's supposed to be above that sort of conduct. You've stated that very thing on many occasions with others. What good is a sermon if the preacher isn't going to heed his own lessons?

    A gentle nudge toward the archives is fine, though there was nothing gentle about the way it was handled. Nonetheless, one should not conflate a perceived ignorance of history with what may just simply be a natural right to skepticism about a stat that does have some natural flaws.
    I have NEVER said the ORG is not the place for snark. The ORG is a perfect venue for snark. It's not the place to drop a drive bye opinion without justification or research and bristle when challenged nor is it the place to grossly mischaracterized the positions of others. In other words, when critiquing a "preacher", one needs to make sure they actually understand the sermon.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  16. #42
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    fWAR is a better indicator of who the best player was than HR, RBI and batting average or ERA and pitching Wins.

    It is also imperfect, yes.

    Fortunately, the range of superlatives from perfect to anti-perfect is wide so we don't have to be perfect in order to be better.

    As Mr. Bateman said, using fWAR to establish a hierarchy of who was best allows further research. For example, looking at components like wOBA, xFIP, et al. can give an idea about who is likely to continue being "best" going forward and who isn't. One can break those components down further into useful granular stats like BA, HR, K/9 and so one. It's also possible to look at how said player created his "bestness" - through defense, offense and pitching.

    Although I'm not a fan of br.com's WAR (bWAR? rWAR? I can't remember), I think it's noble of them to create a similar measure and it can be useful and interesting to discuss wide variations between the two systems.

    So if we want to have a real conversation about WAR and it's uses, that would be great.

    If we want to have bickering, neener-neenering and nonversational nonsense, let's just close the thread now.

    Choose your adventure.
    How about a simple poll thread:

    1)WAR is garbage!!
    2)WAR is useful.

    Everyone could satisfy their need to publically delare their allegiance and maybe there would be fewer, "WAR is garbage, just junk really!!! Discuss." threads.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  17. #43
    We Need Our Myths reds1869's Avatar
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    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    When did all baseball discussion turn into Brian Kenny vs. Harold Reynolds ridiculousness? It really doesn't have to be black and white, right or wrong. And we can certainly disagree without thinking the "other side" is somehow the enemy. Attack the argument, not the person. I don't mean to preach and don't really have a right to. I just don't understand the decrease in civility lately.

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  19. #44
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I have NEVER said the ORG is not the place for snark. The ORG is a perfect venue for snark. It's not the place to drop a drive bye opinion without justification or research and bristle when challenged nor is it the place to grossly mischaracterized the positions of others. In other words, when critiquing a "preacher", one needs to make sure they actually understand the sermon.
    No, any community that is supposed to be civil and promote discussion cannot, by definition, be promoting snark when replying to other posters. That kind of behavior makes everyone want to post less, as it's not worth the hassle of putting up with rude, unpleasant posters.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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  21. #45
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    No, any community that is supposed to be civil and promote discussion cannot, by definition, be promoting snark when replying to other posters. That kind of behavior makes everyone want to post less, as it's not worth the hassle of putting up with rude, unpleasant posters.
    You're entitled to your opinion and you're welcome to insulate yourself from snark on the Internet though good luck finding a high quality discussion board that agrees with your position. Snark is a valid way to express one's opinion and is in keeping with a standard of maintaining high quality discussion.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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