Turn Off Ads?
Page 3 of 4 FirstFirst 1234 LastLast
Results 31 to 45 of 60

Thread: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

  1. #31
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    Charlotte, Nc
    Posts
    15,123

    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    It's a valid question that any responsible adult should try and answer
    I didn't actually read what he wrote. Usually it's just a emoticon displaying disdain.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #32
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Posts
    34,844

    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Then me
    Me next.

    Such arrogance. The original post didn't call for that type of remark.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  4. Likes:

    Red in Chicago (08-10-2013)

  5. #33
    Member VR's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Vancouver, Wa
    Posts
    8,569

    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by New York Red View Post
    How do you weigh something that doesn't happen? As in runners not attempting an extra base because of the OF's reputation? I laugh every time someone tries to run on Bruce, though it doesn't happen often. They know better.
    This is one area where WAR, or any measurement, just can't....and likely never will truly be, a firm judge of a player's value. There are hundreds of situations just like the one you mention that are circumstantial, and no software program will ever be able to capture them.
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

  6. #34
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, Ga.
    Posts
    10,491

    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    WAR is unreliable if it is used as an absolute measure. It is very useful as a rough indicator of a player's value. Whether you are into new stats, or prefer the more traditional ones, ALL stats are interlocked - they can't be used independently of other stats to form judgements. That is where WAR gets in trouble, imo. Too many fans misunderstand it and assume it is the ultimate measure of a player and they can ignore other stats. What's his WAR? Most fans on Redszone are more astute than that. WAR is just another number and formula to use in evaluation. If you depend on it as THE stat, then you'll get in dutch. As for the defensive metrics, they are vastly improved over what they were just 5 years ago - as they are harder to quantify, it stands to reason there are going to be some problems but computers and cameras are making it better and better - the eye meets the numbers so to speak.

    One thing about Frazier/Bruce and WAR for instance - I don't like to measure WAR numbers of players at different positions - it's apples to oranges. RF comped to RFer, 3B to 3B, SS to SS. For instance in fangraphs calculation of WAR the difference in Runs is a swing of 10 in favor of the third baseman - which when you compare a third baseman to a RFer means that the solid 3rd base defender gets a fair boost in his WAR via defense which the RFer doesn't (the RFer is actually dunned -7.5 Runs). SS to RF has an even higher run value difference. If you don't understand this valuation by position you are bound to make erroneous judgements looking at WAR.
    Basically WAR is comparing the value of one player to his position over replacement to another player at his position to a replacement. For players at the same positions, it's an apples-to-apples comparison. For players at different positions, adjustments are made in the calculation so that one could say "this shortstop is worth more at his position than a third baseman is to his."

    That said, because the point of the stat is to nail down an exact run/win value, and because defensive metrics are still a little sloppy in exact measurements, it's certainly a number that has to be taken with a grain of salt.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  7. Likes:

    RedEye (08-10-2013), thorn (08-10-2013)

  8. #35
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    Calgary, AB
    Posts
    5,838

    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    WAR, like any stat cannot be relied on as the be all end all. It's nice to use as a ballpark of comparing values of players, especially when there are multiple seasons of data to work with.

    But at the same time, each of its components need to be looked at with a giant grain of salt. We often look at items like BAPIP, value with runners in scoring position, etc. to properly evaluate whether OPS or other stats of a player are a true reflection of that player's talent level. WAR doesn't do that for us. Defensively, you can look at players like Nyjer Morgan who happened to couple a great defensive WAR season with his best offensive season which saw him spike up the WAR leader charts. Was he really one of the best players in baseball during that season? Of course not.

    WAR, like any stat, needs to be looked at with proper context. If a player really is elite defenisvely, looking at this year's defensive WAR as justification is not proper evidence. If a guy is truly elite defenisvely, it will show in numerous ways beyond WAR, and will do so for numerous seasons.

    I prefer to use WAR when sample sizes have been properly set to remove the noise of year to year fluctuations, and when we are trying to compare players with different positions. I find it useful in trying to compare, say, who is a more valuable player, Buster Posey or Joey Votto? I like that WAR is able to compare positional value defensive value, offensive value, and baserunning all in one number. If used in proper context, it is a good way of measuring all of the components and assigning a number value to it. Otherwise, how else is it possible to assign a number value to a player's total production?

    Like any stat, context is important. You can't determine the MVP of the season simply by looking at the WAR leaderboards at the end of the season because there are too many factors to consider. It's one piece of the puzzle, and if used correctly, I think it can be a very valuable piece of the puzzle. But I think at the same time it is not used in the proper way. Simply because Simmons and Gomez are at the of the list at the moment doesn't mean it is a useless stat. it just means that I think we need to apply some context to what it is telling us to be used appropriately.

  9. #36
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    4,054

    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Why are we shooting people and talking about WAR? I've sort of lost who is replying to who on this thread w/out direct quotes.

  10. #37
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Posts
    34,844

    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by TOBTTReds View Post
    Why are we shooting people and talking about WAR? I've sort of lost who is replying to who on this thread w/out direct quotes.
    Read posts 4 and 5 on this thread.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  11. #38
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    4,054

    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Read posts 4 and 5 on this thread.
    I did...I don't find Jojo's posts that offensive (if that's what the remarks were about).

    I think the OP has a fine reputation though, so maybe that part of it wasn't called for.

  12. #39
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    18,623

    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by TOBTTReds View Post
    I did...I don't find Jojo's posts that offensive (if that's what the remarks were about)
    Exactly.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  13. #40
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, Ga.
    Posts
    10,491

    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by TOBTTReds View Post
    I did...I don't find Jojo's posts that offensive (if that's what the remarks were about).

    I think the OP has a fine reputation though, so maybe that part of it wasn't called for.
    It was a pretty rude response to an innocent thread.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  14. Likes:

    DocRed (08-10-2013), Fil3232 (08-10-2013), jimbo (08-11-2013), Larkin Fan (08-10-2013), LexRedsFan (08-10-2013), mth123 (08-10-2013), New York Red (08-10-2013), Norm Chortleton (08-12-2013), OnBaseMachine (08-10-2013), Red in Chicago (08-10-2013), westofyou (08-10-2013)

  15. #41
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    18,623

    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by TOBTTReds View Post
    Why are we shooting people and talking about WAR? I've sort of lost who is replying to who on this thread w/out direct quotes.

    Someone hates defensive metrics and picked out a seeming outlier from a list of WAR to make an argument that defensive metrics suck and WAR is total garbage.

    I think the total shock of such a novel approach has everyone on edge especially since there haven't been any let alone many past instances of similar threads to desensitize everyone to the revelation.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  16. #42
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    18,623

    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    It was a pretty rude response to an innocent thread.
    Not really. This very discussion has a long, grey beard and an OP that ignores its wrinkles and sagely history to essentially act like we're holding a newborn deserves some snark and and a gentle redirection to the archives. Not much is gained by resetting the discussion to a blank page.

    If there truly wasn't knowledge of the rich discussion and the thread was truly motivated by an honest desire to learn more about WAR, being pointed to the archives would be greatly appreciated.
    Last edited by jojo; 08-10-2013 at 01:56 PM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  17. #43
    High five! nate's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Irvine, CA
    Posts
    6,976

    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    fWAR is a better indicator of who the best player was than HR, RBI and batting average or ERA and pitching Wins.

    It is also imperfect, yes.

    Fortunately, the range of superlatives from perfect to anti-perfect is wide so we don't have to be perfect in order to be better.

    As Mr. Bateman said, using fWAR to establish a hierarchy of who was best allows further research. For example, looking at components like wOBA, xFIP, et al. can give an idea about who is likely to continue being "best" going forward and who isn't. One can break those components down further into useful granular stats like BA, HR, K/9 and so one. It's also possible to look at how said player created his "bestness" - through defense, offense and pitching.

    Although I'm not a fan of br.com's WAR (bWAR? rWAR? I can't remember), I think it's noble of them to create a similar measure and it can be useful and interesting to discuss wide variations between the two systems.

    So if we want to have a real conversation about WAR and it's uses, that would be great.

    If we want to have bickering, neener-neenering and nonversational nonsense, let's just close the thread now.

    Choose your adventure.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  18. Likes:

    Patrick Bateman (08-10-2013), RedEye (08-10-2013), RichRed (08-10-2013)

  19. #44
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, Ga.
    Posts
    10,491

    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Not really. This very discussion has a long, grey beard and an OP that ignores its wrinkles and sagely history to essentially act like we're holding a newborn deserves some snark and and a gentle redirection to the archives. Not much is gained by resetting the discussion to a blank page.

    If there truly wasn't knowledge of the rich discussion and the thread was truly motivated by an honest desire to learn more about WAR, being pointed to the archives would be greatly appreciated.
    I know it's been said on more than one occasion that ORG is not a place for snark and it's supposed to be above that sort of conduct. You've stated that very thing on many occasions with others. What good is a sermon if the preacher isn't going to heed his own lessons?

    A gentle nudge toward the archives is fine, though there was nothing gentle about the way it was handled. Nonetheless, one should not conflate a perceived ignorance of history with what may just simply be a natural right to skepticism about a stat that does have some natural flaws.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  20. Likes:

    Norm Chortleton (08-12-2013)

  21. #45
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    18,623

    Re: What am I to make of some NL WAR leaders?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    I know it's been said on more than one occasion that ORG is not a place for snark and it's supposed to be above that sort of conduct. You've stated that very thing on many occasions with others. What good is a sermon if the preacher isn't going to heed his own lessons?

    A gentle nudge toward the archives is fine, though there was nothing gentle about the way it was handled. Nonetheless, one should not conflate a perceived ignorance of history with what may just simply be a natural right to skepticism about a stat that does have some natural flaws.
    I have NEVER said the ORG is not the place for snark. The ORG is a perfect venue for snark. It's not the place to drop a drive bye opinion without justification or research and bristle when challenged nor is it the place to grossly mischaracterized the positions of others. In other words, when critiquing a "preacher", one needs to make sure they actually understand the sermon.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25