Stephenson promoted to Pensacola

[19braves77]

I am guessing the next five days goes:

Stephenson tommorow
Followed by Contreras
Moscot will be next
Then Tim Crabbe
Followed by Josh Smith

[OGB]

Suddenly Pensacola's rotation appears to be full of guys who may have mlb futures as SP or RPs...most of them relievers. The journeymen hav all gone by the wayside.

[RedlegJake]

Pensacola suffered through a talent drought...next season I hope they have a better roster. They should if Stephenson starts out there before going to AAA. Add Ervin, Winker, YRod, Lutz back, maybe Lorenzen, Contreras, Mejias-Brean before the year is out. Blue Wahoos could be pretty good.

[19braves77]

Can you anybody share why the Reds allow their prospects to throw a curveball and slider yet they cant throw various forms of a fastball ? Thats very different then other MLB clubs.

[dougdirt]

Can you anybody share why the Reds allow their prospects to throw a curveball and slider yet they cant throw various forms of a fastball ? Thats very different then other MLB clubs.

I don't think that it is a mandate from the club.

Several guys throw a cutter. Some guys throw a 2 and 4 seamer.

[Kc61]

I wouldn't even consider it.

I agree that the Reds won't trade Stephenson. Looking at the horizon, with Bailey and Arroyo's contract status and Cueto's injury, I look for Stephenson to be a Red later in 2014 or by April 2015 at the very latest.

He's a big part of the Reds' next five years. Stephenson and Cingrani are the next wave of starters to join guys like Latos and Leake.

If they can keep Bailey, that's gravy. Reds may need a rotation stopgap for a season or so, maybe Arroyo on a shorter deal or someone from the outside. Reality is probably that they need to fish or cut bait on Bailey this coming off-season.

[lollipopcurve]

Reality is probably that they need to fish or cut bait on Bailey this coming off-season.

I don't think so. Bailey in his walk year could be very good. Then they cash in the first round/supplemental pick if he can't be extended. That's far better than taking a mediocre return for him this offseason, if that's all the market produces.

[bubbachunk]

I don't think so. Bailey in his walk year could be very good. Then they cash in the first round/supplemental pick if he can't be extended. That's far better than taking a mediocre return for him this offseason, if that's all the market produces.

Agreed, we are talking about a Reds Organization that has shown very well in recent history of drafting players. Not to mention some of the young up and coming arms can have a little more time to develop if needed.

[Kc61]

I don't think so. Bailey in his walk year could be very good. Then they cash in the first round/supplemental pick if he can't be extended. That's far better than taking a mediocre return for him this offseason, if that's all the market produces.

Reds will need offense, particularly if Choo leaves. Even if Choo stays, arguably. How do they get it?

They can sign a free agent. Arroyo/Choo salary slots could go to offense, but Reds will need starting players and they cost money in free agency. Reds have some big salary payments to Votto and others due.

They can promote Billy Hamilton and hope he hits. But it seems one year premature given Billy's AAA numbers. Maybe he's a backup in Cincy next year.

Or they can make a trade. Trade Bailey before his walk year for offense. Re-sign Arroyo or somebody else short term. Then, promote Stephenson as soon as possible to take Homer's spot.

I think the third option is very realistic. IMO the Reds will try and sign Homer reasonably this off-season, but if they fail they will trade him. I think they will conclude that Homer has more value in a trade than as a one-year impending free agent. Just my view.

[NeilHamburger]

Would you do Bailey for Dexter Fowler?

Bailey for Trumbo?

[Kc61]

Would you do Bailey for Dexter Fowler?

Bailey for Trumbo?

It's too soon to know. Do the Reds need a left fielder? A CF? A third baseman? A shortstop who can hit?

A lot depends on Choo, Billy Hamilton, Ludwick's health, the current Frazier/Cozart situation, there are a number of decisions to be made.

No idea who the Reds will want, but I think Bailey is potentially excellent trade bait if they can't sign him.

[bellhead]

Reds will need offense, particularly if Choo leaves. Even if Choo stays, arguably. How do they get it?

They can sign a free agent. Arroyo/Choo salary slots could go to offense, but Reds will need starting players and they cost money in free agency. Reds have some big salary payments to Votto and others due.

They can promote Billy Hamilton and hope he hits. But it seems one year premature given Billy's AAA numbers. Maybe he's a backup in Cincy next year.

Or they can make a trade. Trade Bailey before his walk year for offense. Re-sign Arroyo or somebody else short term. Then, promote Stephenson as soon as possible to take Homer's spot.

I think the third option is very realistic. IMO the Reds will try and sign Homer reasonably this off-season, but if they fail they will trade him. I think they will conclude that Homer has more value in a trade than as a one-year impending free agent. Just my view.

Especially if it's a club he is willing to resign with...

[HokieRed]

It's too soon to know. Do the Reds need a left fielder? A CF? A third baseman? A shortstop who can hit?

A lot depends on Choo, Billy Hamilton, Ludwick's health, the current Frazier/Cozart situation, there are a number of decisions to be made.

No idea who the Reds will want, but I think Bailey is potentially excellent trade bait if they can't sign him.

If we trade Bailey for offense and do not re-sign Arroyo, we go into next year with a Cueto who has pitched 40 some innings this year, Latos, Leake, and a very promising yet second-year pitcher in Cingrani (if you think he can't regress go back and look at how good Travis Wood was for us in 2010). Is that a playoff contending rotation? I don't think the FO will conclude it is.

[Kc61]

If we trade Bailey for offense and do not re-sign Arroyo, we go into next year with a Cueto who has pitched 40 some innings this year, Latos, Leake, and a very promising yet second-year pitcher in Cingrani (if you think he can't regress go back and look at how good Travis Wood was for us in 2010). Is that a playoff contending rotation? I don't think the FO will conclude it is.

As I said earlier, if Bailey were traded the Reds would have to add a pitcher or even two, maybe by re-signing Arroyo or getting a stopgap starter of reasonable quality for a year. Or promoting Stephenson very soon. Or some combo.

But consider this offense without Choo. It hasn't been very good with Choo, I can't see the Reds going into next year without offensive additions.

If Bailey won't re-sign reasonably, I think the Reds will conclude that now is the time to move him and get offense for him. Choices in the June 2015 draft are fine, but doesn't complete the current team.

The other option would be to deplete the farm even further, trading guys like Hamilton and Winker for readier offensive help. I just don't think they will do that, these prospects are cheap and controllable and therefore too valuable. Can't sell the farm to keep a one-year guy IMO.

[mth123]

My shot at predicting the off-season.

1.Qualifying offers to Choo and Arroyo. Choo is likely gone, but Arroyo could accept.

2. If Arroyo walks, Bailey stays and will get his own qualifying offer after 2014. If Arroyo stays, Bailey is likely dealt for monetary reasons. I'd guess the return would be one pretty good prospect (maybe toward the bottom of the top 100 list or just off of it), a depth guy who is similar to Reds depth guys like Lutz, Rogers, etc. and a lottery ticket minor leaguer. They may not get all that. Arroyo getting qualifying money means that there won't be money for anyone established or making money in a Bailey deal IMO. One year of Bailey won't net anything like Trumbo, Fowler or the like unless that player only has one year of control left as well. I'd be thrilled if they could get some one in the Gregorious mold as the main guy in a deal for him. The only exception would be if the Reds take a contract back, say Asdrubel Cabrera or some one like that, but I'm not sure there will be money available to do so.

3. The 2014 rotation will be Cueto, Latos, Cingrani, Leake and Bailey/Arroyo. Stephenson starts in AA and will be looked at as the next guy in line if a starter is needed IMO.

4. To add offense, I'm guessing Chapman will also be shopped. His deal converts to a signing bonus and the Reds will need to go to arb with him. Between the bonus money and the arb award, Chapman will be a $6 to $10 Million year over year increase in cost. He's the guy who may be dealt for a bat and stuff. Possibly in a package type deal.

5. Lorenzen will be in the mix early in the year, if not right out of Spring training. Hoover/Broxton will somehow man the 8th and 9th with Lecure and Simon fronting them. The Reds probably need a lefty. Parra will be a free agent and Marshall is a huge question mark. Partch and Ondrusek probably fight for 12th man. Guys like Crabbe, Rogers, Renken and maybe even Corcino may be the next Hoover or Lecure in the making at some point in 2014.

I think the aggressive movement of Stephenson and Lorenzen is because the Reds know they will need them at some point in 2014. They just don't have the money for quality depth and the minor leaguers ahead of them are either fringey (Rogers, Renken, Crabbe), have taken steps backawards (Corcino) or aren't really in the plans (Ravin, Villareal).