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Thread: Strategery question

  1. #1
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    Strategery question

    So without getting into the wisdom of the sac bunt in the first place, i have an honest question.

    Why would you try to bunt Ludwick to 2nd, but then when he advances on his own, not attempt to bunt him to 3rd?

    I'd have to think that with 0 outs(1 after the sacrifice) a runner being on 3rd is much more valuable than one on 2nd. Amiright or amiright?
    When people say that I donít know what Iím talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
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  3. #2
    Moderator LexRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: Strategery question

    I thought the same thing, and this isn't the first time I've seen it happen this year (and not just to the Reds, either).

    Perhaps the bunt attempt was at least partially aimed at preventing the double play (particularly with the slow Mesoraco batting) which is no longer an issue with the runner on second.

  4. #3
    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
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    Re: Strategery question

    No, once you have the runner in scoring position, you swing away and use the extra out to try to knock him in, especially with a decent batter at the plate.
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  6. #4
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Strategery question

    I get the case for a sac fly or groundball to bring in a run from third, but with 0 outs and a runner on 2nd, I am generally in favor of taking your chances that one of the next 3 batters (assuming no walk) will get a base hit. I just don't like giving up outs.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

  7. #5
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Strategery question

    http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/brook...ectedruns.html

    Man on 2B, 0 Outs: 63.3% chance of scoring at least 1 run
    Man on 3B, 1 Out: 66.7% chance of scoring at least 1 run

    Of course, a bunt attempt isn't guaranteed, as we saw earlier tonight. You also can wind up with a wild throw to first and a runner scoring. Point being, it's more or less or a break-even play, with it being a better play if you have a poor hitter at the plate.

    Count me with Tom here. Don't make outs on purpose. At best it's a marginal improvement in your run likelihood. And it seems to me that most people over-estimate the likelihood of success of the bunt attempt.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  8. #6
    Moderator LexRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: Strategery question

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Count me with Tom here. Don't make outs on purpose. At best it's a marginal improvement in your run likelihood. And it seems to me that most people over-estimate the likelihood of success of the bunt attempt.
    I agree 100%; I bet most on here will. However, if we're in a vacuum of bunting strategy... Is the difference larger between 0 out and 1B, and 1 out and a runner on 2B? Edit: just checked and it actually drops slightly, if I'm reading the output right (I'm a little rusty, my last stats class was 2 years ago)

  9. #7
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    Re: Strategery question

    Also if you bunt Mes you have Izturis up which almost eliminates the chance of a sac fly. If he makes an out they walk Choo and pitch to Frazier.


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