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Thread: MLB considering instant replay for everything (except balls & strikes)

  1. #46
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: MLB considering instant replay for everything (except balls & strikes)

    Quote Originally Posted by George Anderson View Post
    As a fellow umpire you know we deal with chaps like this quite often.

    Referring to an umpire as dense or as "your kind" are both ejectable offenses btw.
    At least you have a sense of humor.
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  3. #47
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: MLB considering instant replay for everything (except balls & strikes)

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Tennis uses automated line calls and it has been nearly perfect.

    The technology is there. We see it work everywhere. It just may not be PitchFx.
    That is a key point. PITCHf/x is highly accurate but it is not the world's most accurate measurement system and in fact there are better measurement systems out there. There is no reason to think that a newer, even better system couldn't be implemented in quick order. After all, scientists (and the military, NASA, SpaceX, etc) can track missiles, satellites, comets and other objects moving at speeds far greater than 90mph and at distances millions of times longer than the dimensions of a ballpark. If you can track the course of a hypersonic ballistic missile and instantaneously plot it's course to within millimeters then measuring the exact course of a baseball is child's play.

    PITCHf/x is already installed in all 30 ballparks and it works great. It is already proven to be far, far more accurate than the actual human umpires are. We know PITCHf/x is a big upgrade over human umpiring, but PITCHf/x is not perfect yet either. The technology to upgrade PITCHf/x to an even more accurate system is widely available right now. As time goes by the capabilities will continue to improve at a rapid rate. A supposed lack of technology is nothing more than a red herring employed by people who don't want to replace umpires. The technology is clearly available, it is just a matter of time until MLB decides to give the fans what they want --> we want the correct calls!

  4. #48
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: MLB considering instant replay for everything (except balls & strikes)

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    It is already proven to be far, far more accurate than the actual human umpires are.
    You do realize that the same technology you speak of that is "already to be proven far, far more accurate than the actual human umpires" grade the human umpires to be 95-96% accurate, right? LOL

    That equates to a difference in only about four missed/mistaken called strikes a game max, even if you assume the technology is 99% accurate (which it's not, for all the reasons listed prior).

    But hey, permission to carry on with your hyperbole. You've continually overstated things previously so I shouldn't expect any differently in this case. Bottom line is that the technology is really not yet far ahead enough to declare victory. It's still only a barely negligible upgrade.
    Last edited by Brutus; 08-15-2013 at 03:53 AM.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  5. #49
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: MLB considering instant replay for everything (except balls & strikes)

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    I know the umps won't be happy with this, but maybe it'll be an easier pill to swallow if they simply add an ump to each team for manning the replay booth. Makes their union larger and stronger. Have the ump teams rotate from field to booth, also gives them an easy day in the a/c.
    The problem with having real umps in the replay booth is then you have to worry about them "not wanting their buddies to be shown up". We already see that now.

    A close call that the ump screws up. His buddy umps will seldom overrule him.

    The people in the booths reviewing the replay would ideally not be in the umpire's union. Plus, it's not that difficult to watch a replay in slow motion and get the call right. Being an ump and making the calls in real time requires a lot more skill. Basically Umps are overquailified to watch the replay.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    Re: MLB considering instant replay for everything (except balls & strikes)

    What about these calls that could go either way? There are plays where we'll watch the replay 10 times from five different angles and still not know whether the ball hit the first baseman's mitt before the runner reached first. There are plays where 10 different people watch the replay and five say he was safe and the other five say he was out. How will these bang-bang calls be handled?
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    Re: MLB considering instant replay for everything (except balls & strikes)

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds Freak View Post
    What about these calls that could go either way? There are plays where we'll watch the replay 10 times from five different angles and still not know whether the ball hit the first baseman's mitt before the runner reached first. There are plays where 10 different people watch the replay and five say he was safe and the other five say he was out. How will these bang-bang calls be handled?
    Ever watch an NFL game? If the replay is inconclusive, call on the field stands.
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    Re: MLB considering instant replay for everything (except balls & strikes)

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    You do realize that the same technology you speak of that is "already to be proven far, far more accurate than the actual human umpires" grade the human umpires to be 95-96% accurate, right? LOL

    That equates to a difference in only about four missed/mistaken called strikes a game max, even if you assume the technology is 99% accurate (which it's not, for all the reasons listed prior).

    But hey, permission to carry on with your hyperbole. You've continually overstated things previously so I shouldn't expect any differently in this case. Bottom line is that the technology is really not yet far ahead enough to declare victory. It's still only a barely negligible upgrade.
    Like most calls in baseball though, they are easy to make. Very few calls are borderline, but it is the borderline ones that are important. Some umpires, at least according to Pitch F/X are getting only 85-90% of the strike calls correct. For those guys, we are talking about 35-40 calls per game they are missing. That is an incredible amount.

  10. #53
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    Re: MLB considering instant replay for everything (except balls & strikes)

    I think that you cannot change the home plate ump calling balls and strikes. Regardless of missed calls he makes, it is part of the tradition of the game. Some pitchers and some batters benefit from the missed calls which makes the game the way it is today. Having some computer call the game wouldn't be as exciting. Look at 'pro' Wiffleball. They use a sheet of metal for a strike zone. If the ball hits it, it's a strike. The computer would be the same way, if the pitcher notices a glitch or a questionable ball being called a strike, he could exploit it. A human umpire would be able to adjust and change the strike zone based on different batters sizes. Also, taking out the ump would take out the classic yell at each other reactions between umps, batters, catchers, and managers. As well as the ejections that fire up and excite a crowd. Of course, umps need to learn to take a little criticism before ejecting someone.

    However, I think replay has a place in baseball. Umps should still get fair/foul calls on the field since it makes the difference between live and dead balls. What happens if replay determines a bloop hit over 3 is fair, but players played it as a foul ball? Would the batter get first automatically and any runners get 1 base? That is dumb. Umps need to be there to call in the moment calls like that which can turn the tides of a game. But replay should be used in determining 3 things:

    1.) Homeruns - whether the ball got over the wall, whether the ball is fair or foul, and review any possible fan interference. Should be view by someone in the booth instead of having 4 umps gather and go into a booth.

    2.) Safe vs. Out - still should have umps calling these on the field. But having another review it in the booth would help tremendously. Umps on the field shouldn't be concerned about being overuled since it is hard to see a guy sliding into second or home with dirt flying everywhere and gloves and body parts all obstructing the view. Would have been nice to see DRob's inside HR overturned.

    3.) Catches - with guys making diving plays all the time and no umps in the outfield, there should be reviews of these. Balls are bounced into gloves, come out the top, or just roll under a guy who plays it off like he caught it. Definitely could be reviewed and corrected easily with one man in the booth.

    In terms of challenges. There should not be any. Basically, a guy in the booth reviews each play and determines if it should be overturned. I can see how a manager might easily take advantage of challenging plays for reivews. Could stall for more time to warm up BP arm or talk to a pitcher struggling on the mound without it counting as a mound visit.
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  11. #54
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    Re: MLB considering instant replay for everything (except balls & strikes)

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Like most calls in baseball though, they are easy to make. Very few calls are borderline, but it is the borderline ones that are important. Some umpires, at least according to Pitch F/X are getting only 85-90% of the strike calls correct. For those guys, we are talking about 35-40 calls per game they are missing. That is an incredible amount.
    Oh come on, Doug. For as much complaining as there is about umpire, if it were as easy as it's being made out to be to call most of those calls, more people would be doing it or there'd be less complaining if so many are easy.

    Nonetheless, your math is a little off. There are, right now, 292 pitches per game on average this season in Major League Baseball. The league average swing% is 48%, which means that there are an average of 152 pitches called ball or strike. That means there are 23 pitches being missed if we assume only an 85% success rate. But again, MLB tells us their guys are mostly over 90% and the league average is 95-96%, so there can't be many guys anywhere near 85%. At 95% (what MLB has said is the average), there are only eight pitches a game being missed. That means umpires are missing less than one pitch per complete inning.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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  13. #55
    Member Norm Chortleton's Avatar
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    Re: MLB considering instant replay for everything (except balls & strikes)

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Oh come on, Doug. For as much complaining as there is about umpire, if it were as easy as it's being made out to be to call most of those calls, more people would be doing it or there'd be less complaining if so many are easy.

    Nonetheless, your math is a little off. There are, right now, 292 pitches per game on average this season in Major League Baseball. The league average swing% is 48%, which means that there are an average of 152 pitches called ball or strike. That means there are 23 pitches being missed if we assume only an 85% success rate. But again, MLB tells us their guys are mostly over 90% and the league average is 95-96%, so there can't be many guys anywhere near 85%. At 95% (what MLB has said is the average), there are only eight pitches a game being missed. That means umpires are missing less than one pitch per complete inning.
    To add to this, each ump has his own specific strike zone and the players know what it is. They know certain umps will give the pitcher a strike if it's an inch or so outside and that others have a low zone or high zone. Pitch F/X may call those pitches balls, but those particular umps are going to call them strikes and everybody knows it.

  14. #56
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: MLB considering instant replay for everything (except balls & strikes)

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    . The league average swing% is 48%, which means that there are an average of 152 pitches called ball or strike. .
    Not arguing your point, but I wonder if computers called a consistent strike zone, if the swinging percentage would go down. I'm guessing it would. (Let's assume the perfect computer system existed).
    One reason that some hitters expand the zone on two strikes is because they don't want to risk an ump calling a borderline pitch a strike. Not making a judgement either way but some umps definitely have this attitude of "with 2 strikes, you better swing if it's close".
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  15. #57
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    Re: MLB considering instant replay for everything (except balls & strikes)

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Not arguing your point, but I wonder if computers called a consistent strike zone, if the swinging percentage would go down. I'm guessing it would. (Let's assume the perfect computer system existed).
    One reason that some hitters expand the zone on two strikes is because they don't want to risk an ump calling a borderline pitch a strike. Not making a judgement either way but some umps definitely have this attitude of "with 2 strikes, you better swing if it's close".
    Well, if anything, the umpires have already conformed to the technology. Prior to 10 years ago, they weren't calling the high strike and were calling corners (for some pitchers) pretty regularly.

    But once QuesTech got put in, and eventually Pitch F/X, the umpires have started calling the prescribed strike zones more often because they're being graded. I think it's helped the game a lot because of the accountability. I even maintain part of the rise in strikeouts is because of the zones being called more along the lines of the rule book. Heck, ESPN went back last year and looked at the 2011 playoffs and found something like a 99% accuracy rate of called strikes/balls from umpires. I guess my overall point is that most of them are doing a pretty good job and they are more or less just as accurate as the technology, at least as is currently implemented.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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  17. #58
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    Re: MLB considering instant replay for everything (except balls & strikes)

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Well, if anything, the umpires have already conformed to the technology. Prior to 10 years ago, they weren't calling the high strike and were calling corners (for some pitchers) pretty regularly.

    But once QuesTech got put in, and eventually Pitch F/X, the umpires have started calling the prescribed strike zones more often because they're being graded. I think it's helped the game a lot because of the accountability. I even maintain part of the rise in strikeouts is because of the zones being called more along the lines of the rule book. Heck, ESPN went back last year and looked at the 2011 playoffs and found something like a 99% accuracy rate of called strikes/balls from umpires. I guess my overall point is that most of them are doing a pretty good job and they are more or less just as accurate as the technology, at least as is currently implemented.
    That's a good point about as well, about how QuesTech has made the zone more uniform than in the past.
    If they are calling it 99% right, it probably wouldn't make a difference.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    Re: MLB considering instant replay for everything (except balls & strikes)

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    That's a good point about as well, about how QuesTech has made the zone more uniform than in the past.
    If they are calling it 99% right, it probably wouldn't make a difference.
    To be fair, the overall average is about 95% according to Major League Baseball, at least as graded by Pitch F/X (which in itself claims to be 99% accurate to "within an inch" but that accuracy assumes perfect calibration to its targets, which were tested in factory conditions with stationary targets). But the playoff year tested by ESPN found 99% for those games.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: MLB considering instant replay for everything (except balls & strikes)

    It appears they are going with a challenge system much like the NFL and there will be a crew at MLB HQ in NYC reviewing the call much like the NHL.

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/95...deo-challenges
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