Starting Pitching Historically Good?

[Benihana]

Hypothetically, if Bronson Arroyo follows up today's effort with two more shutouts, would the Reds be the first team in the modern era to have four starting pitchers with ERA under 3?

Even if he doesn't, has a team in the last 50 years even had 3 starting pitchers with an ERA under 3 as they do now (well, Latos is 3.04)?

Should this team be considered to have top to bottom one of the best starting rotations in the history of the game?

[westofyou]

Currently the NL ERA is 4.08

Here are the Reds pitchers in the last 50 years who had 20 starts, 130 IP and an ERA one run better than the league

ERA >= 1 vs. the league average
GAMES STARTED >= 20
RSAA displayed only--not a sorting criteria

ERA                           YEAR     ERA      ERA      GS      RSAA    
1    Gary Nolan               1972     1.99     1.46       25       23   
2    Johnny Cueto             2011     2.31     1.51       24       29   
3    Tom Seaver               1977     2.34     1.57       20       29   
4    Don Gullett              1975     2.42     1.21       22       23   
5    Jose Rijo                1993     2.48     1.56       36       44   
6    Jose Rijo                1991     2.51     1.18       30       35   
7    Jose Rijo                1990     2.70     1.10       29       24   
8    Johnny Cueto             2012     2.78     1.17       33       34   
9    Bob Purkey               1962     2.81     1.13       37       37   
10   Wayne Simpson            1970     3.02     1.04       26       23   
11   Elmer Dessens            2002     3.03     1.08       30       28   
12   Jose Rijo                1994     3.08     1.14       26       22   
13   Pete Harnisch            1998     3.14     1.09       32       27   
14   Edinson Volquez          2008     3.21     1.08       32       26   
15   Bronson Arroyo           2006     3.29     1.20       35       41

For giggles here's the Dodgers

ERA                           YEAR     ERA      ERA      GS      RSAA    
1    Sandy Koufax             1966     1.73     1.88       41       58   
2    Sandy Koufax             1964     1.74     1.80       28       35   
3    Sandy Koufax             1963     1.88     1.41       40       40   
4    Orel Hershiser           1985     2.03     1.57       34       33   
5    Sandy Koufax             1965     2.04     1.50       41       40   
6    Don Sutton               1972     2.08     1.38       33       33   
7    Don Drysdale             1964     2.19     1.35       40       34   
8    Don Sutton               1980     2.20     1.40       31       29   
9    Orel Hershiser           1988     2.26     1.20       34       40   
10   Clayton Kershaw          2011     2.28     1.54       33       36   
11   Burt Hooton              1981     2.28     1.22       23       17   
12   Andy Messersmith         1975     2.29     1.34       40       38   
13   Jerry Reuss              1981     2.30     1.19       22       18   
14   Bob Welch                1985     2.31     1.29       23       18   
15   Orel Hershiser           1989     2.31     1.19       33       25   
16   Bill Singer              1969     2.34     1.26       40       41   
17   Kevin Brown              2003     2.39     1.90       32       38   
18   Don Sutton               1973     2.42     1.25       33       33   
19   Fernando Valenzuela      1985     2.45     1.15       35       25   
20   Fernando Valenzuela      1981     2.48     1.01       25       18   
21   Alejandro Pena           1984     2.48     1.11       28       27   
22   Jerry Reuss              1980     2.51     1.10       29       23   
23   Clayton Kershaw          2012     2.53     1.42       33       29   
24   Hideo Nomo               1995     2.54     1.64       28       26   
25   Sandy Koufax             1962     2.54     1.40       26       21   
26   Kevin Brown              2000     2.58     2.05       33       43   
27   Tommy John               1974     2.59     1.04       22       12   
28   Andy Messersmith         1974     2.59     1.04       39       22   
29   Burt Hooton              1977     2.62     1.29       31       30   
30   Tim Belcher              1991     2.62     1.06       33       26   
31   Ismael Valdes            1997     2.65     1.55       30       26   
32   Tommy John               1977     2.78     1.14       31       25   
33   Clayton Kershaw          2009     2.79     1.41       30       21   
34   Don Drysdale             1962     2.84     1.10       41       26   
35   Clayton Kershaw          2010     2.91     1.12       32       23   
36   Odalis Perez             2002     3.00     1.12       32       18   
37   Kevin Brown              1999     3.00     1.57       35       40   
38   Brad Penny               2007     3.03     1.41       33       35   
39   Ismael Valdes            1995     3.05     1.13       27       16   
40   Orel Hershiser           1987     3.06     1.03       35       19   
41   Hideo Nomo               2003     3.09     1.19       33       22   
42   Chad Billingsley         2008     3.14     1.16       32       18   
43   Hideo Nomo               1996     3.19     1.03       33       15   
44   Derek Lowe               2008     3.24     1.05       34       16   
45   Odalis Perez             2004     3.25     1.06       31       19   
46   Chan Ho Park             2000     3.27     1.37       34       25   
47   Chad Billingsley         2007     3.31     1.13       20       21

[wolfboy]

Hypothetically, if Bronson Arroyo follows up today's effort with two more shutouts, would the Reds be the first team in the modern era to have four starting pitchers with ERA under 3?

Even if he doesn't, has a team in the last 50 years even had 3 starting pitchers with an ERA under 3 as they do now (well, Latos is 3.04)?

Should this team be considered to have top to bottom one of the best starting rotations in the history of the game?

'68 Cardinals had four guys with at least 30 starts and an ERA under 3. Of course, one of those guys also sported an ERA well under 2.

EDIT: The '97 Braves came awful close as well: Maddux, Smoltz, Glavine, & Neagle were one heck of a 1-4 and all 4 just barely missed the under 3 ERA criteria. Smoltz had a 3.02.

[mace]

At quick glance, the Giants of 2011 had 3 starters under 3.00: Vogelsong 2.71, Lincecum 2.74, Cain 2.88. Lincecum and Cain were well over 200 innings, and Vogelsong had 179.2.

Also, Bumgarner had a 3.21 in 204.2 IP.

[westofyou]

'68 Cardinals had four guys with at least 30 starts and an ERA under 3. Of course, one of those guys also sported an ERA well under 2.

The league was at 2.99 though too

[mace]

The 2011 Phillies had Halladay at 2.35, Lee at 2.40, and Hamels at 2.79. Their fifth starter (Oswalt, 3.69, was the fourth) was Vance Worley, with 21 starts and 131.2 IP, and he finished at 3.01.

[Benihana]

So we're accepting/agreeing that this Reds team is at least one of the 3 best* top-to-bottom rotations of the last 15 years? Maybe the last 45 years? That's pretty damn impressive- especially when you consider they've done it without their Opening Day starter/proven ace!


*Along with the 2011 Phillies and Giants

[wolfboy]

So we're accepting/agreeing that this Reds team is at least one of the 3 best* top-to-bottom rotations of the last 15 years? Maybe the last 45 years? That's pretty damn impressive- especially when you consider they've done it without their Opening Day starter/proven ace!


*Along with the 2011 Phillies and Giants

I would probably take any of the mid 90s Braves rotations over this one or the 2011 Giants/Phillies. Maddux, Smoltz, Glavine with the occasional Neagle or Avery.

[mth123]

72 A's. Hunter (2.04), Holtzman (2.51), Odom (2.50), Blue (2.80), Dave Hamilton (2.94). Not sure this is as impressive as it looks. Hamilton's ERA+ was actually a slightly below average 98. Blue (23) and Hamilton (14) both had less than 30 starts.

[BluegrassRedleg]

All I know is this team's starters 1-5 are unprecedented in my lifetime. (Born in '71)

[jojo]

Here's some context for the playoffs:

Ranking starting rotations by either ERA or FIP results in a list where the Reds, Detroit, St Louis, LA Dodgers, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh are in the top 7 (not listed by order) with very little separating these staffs by the numbers.

The playoffs promise to have alot of very tight, low scoring games, especially on the NL side.

[reds44]

The pitching staff is absurd. I've almost adopted a soccer like menatlity with this team lately. When Votto went yard to go up 2-1 (in the 6th!!) I felt confident it would be enough.

[BCubb2003]

Thanks, Walt.

[cumberlandreds]

All I know is this team's starters 1-5 are unprecedented in my lifetime. (Born in '71)

Same for me. I go back to 71 as a Reds fan and they have never had this type of starting pitching.

[wlf WV]

I hope we keep the persons responsible in this organization.I believe it is an organizational thing, as evidenced by WOYs Dodger comparison.