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Thread: SEC Football discussion thread #2

  1. #766
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: SEC Football discussion thread #2

    Some points summarizing threads within this thread...

    1) If Winston is charged, FSU has no ethical choice but to rule him ineligible (absent a really compelling set of facts we don't know about). That said, if that happens, it is a tragedy and this yearís championship should be given an asterisk. The obvious best result would be that he is not charged because the DA does not believe that a rape occurred. Why? Because that outcome would mean a rape would not have occurred. Any other reason for a decision is less desirable on a graded scale depending upon the decision. But to have the national championship determined by something that happened off of the field would suck big time.

    2) FSU and OSU have nearly identical SOS and records. FSU has destroyed their competition. OSU hasnít looked that dominating and several of their close victories actually look worse in the rear view mirror as their opponentís seasons have unfolded. FSU deserves the benefit of the doubt because of the eye test while OSU doesnít because of the eye test. Frankly a championship game between FSU and OSU potentially opens the door for a shared National Champion depending upon the outcome of other BCS bowl games.

    3) A 1 loss SEC Champion deserves to jump an undefeated team with a Boise Statesque case minus a marquee out of conference game. Either Auburn or Missouri would have a more compelling case at 12-1 than OSU would have at 13-0 because either SEC team could boast of victories over multiple top 25 BCS opponents. OSU simply doesnít have the resume as their justification would come down to running the table against uninspiring competition. OSU is a very good football team. That doesnít mean they have the better resume and should get the job.

    4) The narrative that Auburn has somehow been lucky is one that only has legs if one ignores the details. As Bear Bryant was fond of saying, ďLuck is what happens when preparation meets opportunityĒ. Fans who have the luxury of not worrying about details and national media pundits who canít be bothered with more detail than what can fit into a 15 second summary statement have inappropriately conflated the timing of Auburnís walk off homeruns with ďluckĒ. The reality of both the Georgia and Bama game is something different. For instance in the Georgia game, the odds of a game ending bomb occurring were obviously low. However, this wasnít a ďhail maryĒ pass. Auburn attacked a freshman in the secondary. Georgia didnít execute. Auburn did. Sure, call it a lucky bounce but Georgia didnít make a play, Auburn did. Concerning the Bama game, itís even less compelling to argue that Davisí game ending run was luck. Saban decided to try for a long field goal. Malzahn called a time out and changed personnel essentially treating the play like a kickoff and creating perhaps the largest mismatch Bama had faced on a play the entire season. This was a bigger mismatch than the special teams mismatch in the Auburn-Tennessee game concerning speed on the field. The FG was short enough to be fielded (obviously Saban gambled that his kicker had enough leg to miss long if he was going to miss). Once the kick was fielded all Auburn essentially had to do was execute some relatively easy blocks allowing Davis to out athlete the personal Bama had on the field. Literally it was text book kickoff coverage. Was a TD the most probable result on the play? No. But in hindsight, itís not that stunning of an outcome when considering the details. In short, Auburn executed and Bama didnít. This was no more luck that OSU regrouping and stuffing Michiganís two point attempt, a play where OSU executed and Michigan didnít. This was no more luck than McCarronís 99 yard TD earlier in the quarter of the Iron Bowl, a play where Bama executed and Auburn didnít. Also, the luck narrative completely ignores the fact that Auburn was actually in the position to potentially beat Bama on the final play of regulation to begin with. The way the Bama game unfolded is actually a perfect case for how good Auburn actually is. They stuffed Yeldon on 4th and inches. They jammed the ball down the Bamaís throat on a game winning drive led by Marshall and they made Bama pay by flawless execution in a mismatch purposefully exploited by Malzahn countering Sabanís decision. Sure Bama missed 4 FGs but one was blocked and one was 57 yards. Auburn also blocked a punt. Their special teams are excellent and that puts pressure on an opposing teamís special teams unit. Auburn has one of the best special teams units in the country and Bama had to execute against them. They didnít. Auburn gave itself opportunity and they executed. Thatís not luck. Thatís why teams practice.
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  3. #767
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    Re: SEC Football discussion thread #2

    LOL at your bias in all of #1-#4 above. #1 doesn't apply unless it's an SEC team that wins.

    Vegas says OSU would be favored over either Auburn or Missouri. They know a lot more than you.

    Your #4 above is classic. The Georgia miracle was a 1/5000 shot given the circumstances.

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    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: SEC Football discussion thread #2

    If you are talking about ratings, you have to remember that the OSU-Michigan game is usually played at noon on Saturday while the Iron Bowl is played later in the afternoon. A noon game pretty much takes the west coast out of the picture. Do they even show a 9 a.m. PST game on the west coast?
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    Re: SEC Football discussion thread #2

    The Georgia miracle play was pure, dumb, blind luck - nothing else. Coaching had absolutely nothing to do with it. The ball literally fell directly into his hands.

  7. #770
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    Re: SEC Football discussion thread #2

    Quote Originally Posted by oregonred View Post
    LOL at your bias in all of #1-#4 above. #1 doesn't apply unless it's an SEC team that wins.

    Vegas says OSU would be favored over either Auburn or Missouri. They know a lot more than you.

    Your #4 above is classic. The Georgia miracle was a 1/5000 shot given the circumstances.
    Concerning my first point, it couldn't have been stated more definitively or unambigously. It stands regardless of whether MSU beats OSU or not.

    Remove the ad hominem and all that is left of your argument is mythical point spreads. I've got a real one for you- Vegas said Bama would beat Auburn by 10.5.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  8. #771
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: SEC Football discussion thread #2

    To me the only way you give an asterisk to this years title team is if JW is charged, suspended, and then found not guilty. If JW is charged and found guilty no asterisk needed, as he shouldn't/wouldn't have been eligible anyway.

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    Re: SEC Football discussion thread #2

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Some points summarizing threads within this thread...

    1) If Winston is charged, FSU has no ethical choice but to rule him ineligible (absent a really compelling set of facts we don't know about). That said, if that happens, it is a tragedy and this yearís championship should be given an asterisk. The obvious best result would be that he is not charged because the DA does not believe that a rape occurred. Why? Because that outcome would mean a rape would not have occurred. Any other reason for a decision is less desirable on a graded scale depending upon the decision. But to have the national championship determined by something that happened off of the field would suck big time.

    2) FSU and OSU have nearly identical SOS and records. FSU has destroyed their competition. OSU hasnít looked that dominating and several of their close victories actually look worse in the rear view mirror as their opponentís seasons have unfolded. FSU deserves the benefit of the doubt because of the eye test while OSU doesnít because of the eye test. Frankly a championship game between FSU and OSU potentially opens the door for a shared National Champion depending upon the outcome of other BCS bowl games.

    3) A 1 loss SEC Champion deserves to jump an undefeated team with a Boise Statesque case minus a marquee out of conference game. Either Auburn or Missouri would have a more compelling case at 12-1 than OSU would have at 13-0 because either SEC team could boast of victories over multiple top 25 BCS opponents. OSU simply doesnít have the resume as their justification would come down to running the table against uninspiring competition. OSU is a very good football team. That doesnít mean they have the better resume and should get the job.

    4) The narrative that Auburn has somehow been lucky is one that only has legs if one ignores the details. As Bear Bryant was fond of saying, ďLuck is what happens when preparation meets opportunityĒ. Fans who have the luxury of not worrying about details and national media pundits who canít be bothered with more detail than what can fit into a 15 second summary statement have inappropriately conflated the timing of Auburnís walk off homeruns with ďluckĒ. The reality of both the Georgia and Bama game is something different. For instance in the Georgia game, the odds of a game ending bomb occurring were obviously low. However, this wasnít a ďhail maryĒ pass. Auburn attacked a freshman in the secondary. Georgia didnít execute. Auburn did. Sure, call it a lucky bounce but Georgia didnít make a play, Auburn did. Concerning the Bama game, itís even less compelling to argue that Davisí game ending run was luck. Saban decided to try for a long field goal. Malzahn called a time out and changed personnel essentially treating the play like a kickoff and creating perhaps the largest mismatch Bama had faced on a play the entire season. This was a bigger mismatch than the special teams mismatch in the Auburn-Tennessee game concerning speed on the field. The FG was short enough to be fielded (obviously Saban gambled that his kicker had enough leg to miss long if he was going to miss). Once the kick was fielded all Auburn essentially had to do was execute some relatively easy blocks allowing Davis to out athlete the personal Bama had on the field. Literally it was text book kickoff coverage. Was a TD the most probable result on the play? No. But in hindsight, itís not that stunning of an outcome when considering the details. In short, Auburn executed and Bama didnít. This was no more luck that OSU regrouping and stuffing Michiganís two point attempt, a play where OSU executed and Michigan didnít. This was no more luck than McCarronís 99 yard TD earlier in the quarter of the Iron Bowl, a play where Bama executed and Auburn didnít. Also, the luck narrative completely ignores the fact that Auburn was actually in the position to potentially beat Bama on the final play of regulation to begin with. The way the Bama game unfolded is actually a perfect case for how good Auburn actually is. They stuffed Yeldon on 4th and inches. They jammed the ball down the Bamaís throat on a game winning drive led by Marshall and they made Bama pay by flawless execution in a mismatch purposefully exploited by Malzahn countering Sabanís decision. Sure Bama missed 4 FGs but one was blocked and one was 57 yards. Auburn also blocked a punt. Their special teams are excellent and that puts pressure on an opposing teamís special teams unit. Auburn has one of the best special teams units in the country and Bama had to execute against them. They didnít. Auburn gave itself opportunity and they executed. Thatís not luck. Thatís why teams practice.

    #1 - Agreed

    #2 - I disagree that there should be any kind of split championship, and I have a hard time seeing any way that it happens. I would just say that if FSU, the undisputed #1 right now, wins in the National Championship Game, I can't see any reason why they shouldn't stay ahead. I guess the only scenario could be if the National Championship game is close and ugly, and the winner of Auburn/Mizzou wins their Bowl Game by 40. I would agree with you that OSU doesn't pass the eye test, at least on defense. I'm not sure that the offense isn't good enough to make up for that though. The frustrating thing about the defense is that it has 2 1st round picks in the 2013 draft and future 1st round picks on the D Line. Individually, the defense is as athletic and has as many good players as any SEC defense outside of Alabama. Their inability to defend the pass is completely mystifying.

    #3 - This is where I would disagree with you. If Missouri and Ohio State win on Saturday, they will have an equal number of victories against teams currently in the top 25. Missouri's strength of schedule is better because they are beating mediocre teams while OSU is beating bad teams, not because they are playing a ton of great teams. Looking at Missouri's schedule, I feel confident that OSU would have at most 1 loss. Similarly, if Auburn wins, they will have 3 wins against current top 25 opponents, while OSU will have 2. Looking at Auburn's schedule, the 2 games I could see OSU losing would be Alabama and LSU. I don't think they would lose any other game and who knows if they would have lost both.

    Essentially, my point is that Mizzou and Auburn have a stronger strength of schedule because they play 7-5/8-4 teams while OSU plays 6-6/5-7 teams. But that really shouldn't matter. I don't think OSU would have lost to those 7-5 teams either.

    #4 Ė Every team gets lucky throughout the course of the season. Easy catches or interceptions get dropped, calls get missed. That said, Auburnís luck against Georgia was an extreme outlier. To say that Georgia didnít execute and Auburn did is an incredible understatement. There was only one way the Auburn receiver was going to catch that pass. The pass was well overthrown, so it was only catchable if the Georgia player knocked it up in the air, which they obviously did. Not executing is missing an assignment. This was a case where Georgia essentially handed the ball to Auburn.
    The Alabama play was improbable, but it was not lucky. This was a textbook case of one team executing and the other team not. Alabama had multiple chances to put Auburn away, but they either made poor decisions or the players did not execute. Auburn, on the other hand, did everything right. While I still think that Alabama would win a series against Auburn, Auburn deserved to win that game, and itís not fair to marginalize it by saying it was lucky.

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  11. #773
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: SEC Football discussion thread #2

    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  13. #774
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    Re: SEC Football discussion thread #2

    I don't know if this could actually happen but some are bringing up the possibility that if both Duke and Sparty win this weekend, the BCS championship game could be a rematch of the Iron Bowl.
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  14. #775
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    Re: SEC Football discussion thread #2

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    I don't know if this could actually happen but some are bringing up the possibility that if both Duke and Sparty win this weekend, the BCS championship game could be a rematch of the Iron Bowl.
    That would be like the worst possible outcome. The Iron Bowl was beautiful sports poetry. Like great movies, a sequel only diminishes the franchise.

    But lets not get ahead of ourselves.... in the above hypothetical, Auburn still has to beat Mizzou and that is by no means a sure thing.

    Last edited by jojo; 12-04-2013 at 09:48 AM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: SEC Football discussion thread #2

    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: SEC Football discussion thread #2

    Word on the street is that Vanderbilt will be bypassed by the Gator, Music City and Liberty Bowls and sent to the Compass Bowl in favor of teams with worse records.

    There is also a very underground movement that might allow Notre Dame out of its' obligation to the Pinstripe Bowl and put Vanderbilt in that slot.
    When all is said and done more is said than done.

  17. #778
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    Re: SEC Football discussion thread #2

    Quote Originally Posted by dabvu2498 View Post
    Word on the street is that Vanderbilt will be bypassed by the Gator, Music City and Liberty Bowls and sent to the Compass Bowl in favor of teams with worse records.

    There is also a very underground movement that might allow Notre Dame out of its' obligation to the Pinstripe Bowl and put Vanderbilt in that slot.
    Whatever bowl your guys go to, you guys need to descend upon that stadium like an army of invaders. But even if showing how well you travel, I think with tv revenue, it's all about tv ratings.

    I think A&M will be treated better in the post season than their resume deserves.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  18. #779
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    Re: SEC Football discussion thread #2

    Wouldn't surprise me to see A & M in the Cotton Bowl. Too good of a matchup between a high scoring Baylor team and Johnny Football. Likely to be his last college game too.
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    Re: SEC Football discussion thread #2

    Quote Originally Posted by dabvu2498 View Post

    There is also a very underground movement that might allow Notre Dame out of its' obligation to the Pinstripe Bowl and put Vanderbilt in that slot.
    ND does not have any obligation to Pinstripe Bowl. This is last of a period where ND has no ties to any bowl. Any bowl they go to has to be either contractually negotiated or because a conference does not meet its bowl eligibility.
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