I think that as far as probabilities are concerned, you can cheat and say these 2 teams are evenly matched.
Now there are 2 prizes to be had.
1) The Home WC game. The Pirates 1 game lead is 100 percent meaningless. Whoever wins the series in Cincy gets the game. Simple as that. And I give each team a 50/50 shot. Though if I dissect things a bit, if the Reds are able to bring Cueto out for a Sunday rubber game, advantage Cincinnati.
2) The prize that counts. The winner of the Wildcard game. Forget the next 3 games in Cincy...all that matters is this one. Yes, an advantage to be had if you host the game, but it is a slight one...maybe gives a team 60/40 odds and that is being generous.
All things being equal, each team has a 25 percent chance to sweep both "prizes", but I could care less about the next 3 games, and will try not to get too emotional either way. It boils down to Latos vs Liriano on Tuesday.
I'm sold. Both on 887 and 888 (your two above, Kal). I'm all about coin flips in cases like this since seems kind of futile to try and predict outomes. That said the logic around Tuesday is pretty unassailable imho.
Reds & Nats, 2013 LCS. Take2 (9/13) Reds but no Nats
I like the Reds chances, though in baseball the chances are never that much greater.
We've beaten the Pirates 8 of the last 13 games we've played them.
The Pirates have played at a .500 clip for quite some time.
Both us and the Pirates have played much better at home than on the road.
Our run differential is about 70 better than theirs, which is very significant.
I think we are about a 60/40 favorite to win 2 of 3.
Getting home for the WC is important, as Liriano is much better at home than on the road. he certainly was today in Chicago, where he was continually in trouble before leaving having thrown 100 pitches in 5 innings, surrendering 4 runs.
All and all, I expect us to be the favorite to advance, but it's certainly only in the 55-60% range. Which is better than 0%.
Wow. Anyone watching this ATL-MIL situation? Gomez has pissed off another team. McCann almost kicked his ass before he could touch home on the HR.
Rounding third and heading for home...
Gomez with a crazy clown move. I defended the guy after the Votto HR theft celebration, but this is nuts.
I have never seen that in MLB. Looked like something from a (bad) softball league.
Rounding third and heading for home...
TSJ55 (09-25-2013)
Call me crazy, guys, but I smell a third place World Series champion!
Beer me if you're with me.
mdccclxix (09-25-2013)
MillerTime58 (09-26-2013)
Gomez w/ the most bush league maneuver I've ever seen. Then during the scrum he plays the role of coward yelling "hold me back" while moving backwards the whole time.
Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count; everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted.
All the dishes rattle in the cupboards when the elephants arrive
Always Red (09-25-2013)
TSJ55 (09-25-2013)
It would have been funny if ATL had appealed the play because Gomez didn't touch the plate. The result would have been George Brett Pine Tar Reaction x 1,000.
Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count; everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted.
All the dishes rattle in the cupboards when the elephants arrive
Always Red (09-25-2013)
Maybe the league will rule that
all 2013 plays involving Carlos Gomez
are void and declare the Reds division winners.
MillerTime58 (09-26-2013)
at Mitch Williams absolutely crushing Gomez for being a ***** and acting like he wanted to fight.
Always Red (09-25-2013),TSJ55 (09-25-2013)
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