Scoreboard Watching 2013 (Part 3)

[Beltway]

Sorry but that's thin.

The Nationals already knew their playoff hopes were slim the last week or so. I doubt very, very seriously that because their last shot at a miracle comeback was officially erased they suddenly lost the urge to play.

The Reds were no-hit in the playoffs in 2010 and you can't tell me they lacked heart.

I saw a few Nats hitters take a called strike three, shrug their shoulders, and slowly stroll back to the dugout. They looked like they were depressed.

It's easy for you to argue about how irrational it would be for them to be down about being eliminated last night, but emotions are not always rational. They are often quite irrational.

[kaldaniels]

Homer Bailey - Still reigning No-Hit King of the NL Central.

[Brutus]

As someone here on RZ who probably knows the Nationals better than 99% of you, I'll say that Brutus' point here has some--but not total--merit.

There's no doubt in my mind that some lack of work ethic and drive affected the team this year and also tonight. But that's on just a few players and not the team as a whole. Wrong to generalize a criticism like that but the suit fits in just a few cases I don't need to name here.

You can probably find a few cases on any baseball team in the world that would fit that description.

No fan can know what's going through a player's mind when he's playing, no matter how much a person watches a team. Sometimes body language gives clues, but even then it's thin analysis to conclude that a team or group of individuals have 'given up' based on such anecdotal, and rather subjective analysis.

If there were much merit to what is being said, the great teams would dominate the bad teams in the month of September. But it rarely works out that way.

[1940757690]

Wacha can now go down to the local St. Louis bar and order a beer from the last Cardinal to throw a no hitter, Bud Smith.

Ha! Wonder what the unofficial protocol might be on that? Does the pitcher cum bar owner who threw a no-hitter buy a beer for the impressive rookie who just missed with a 2-out 9th inning one hitter?

[Brutus]

I saw a few Nats hitters take a called strike three, shrug their shoulders, and slowly stroll back to the dugout. They looked like they were depressed.

It's easy for you to argue about how irrational it would be for them to be down about being eliminated last night, but emotions are not always rational. They are often quite irrational.

I didn't say it's irrational, I just said it's not very likely that their mood is terribly different.

You're really grasping at straws, though, analyzing a player's mindset based on how they walk back to the dugout. Votto struck out looking twice tonight and looked awfully ambivalent about it. Does that mean he's given up?

[Beltway]

If there were much merit to what is being said, the great teams would dominate the bad teams in the month of September. But it rarely works out that way.

This goes against everything we know about psychology. It's more emotionally devastating to lose something you thought you had than to never have that thing in the first place. It's why blowing games in late innings is so emotionally devastating, while being blown out from the start really isn't. Bad teams like the Mets and Cubs never had a chance at the playoffs, so they haven't had to deal with that sense of loss like the Nationals are dealing with now.

[1940757690]

You can probably find a few cases on any baseball team in the world that would fit that description.

No fan can know what's going through a player's mind when he's playing, no matter how much a person watches a team. Sometimes body language gives clues, but even then it's thin analysis to conclude that a team or group of individuals have 'given up' based on such anecdotal, and rather subjective analysis.

If there were much merit to what is being said, the great teams would dominate the bad teams in the month of September. But it rarely works out that way.

Again, and of course just imho, can't generalize or use such a broad brush. Sure, maybe a case or two on most teams but there's huge variation from team to team and year to year. It's about culture, chemistry and thus drive, work ethic and W/L rate. No comparison between the 2013 Nationals and the 2013 Red Sox as example...on drive and alignment among players and management. Far from trying to guess players' mindsets or posture walking back to a dugout, my views are based on lots and lots of player and management comments in interviews throughout the year along with watching almost as many Nats games in person as I watched on TV or web for the Reds.

So, I guess we're mostly agreeing as I re-read you post above? Thought you'd originally argued that "giving up" was partly to explain the almost-no-hitter. If I misunderstood you, my apologies. Not black and white in my view.

[1940757690]

This goes against everything we know about psychology. It's more emotionally devastating to lose something you thought you had than to never have that thing in the first place. It's why blowing games in late innings is so emotionally devastating, while being blown out from the start really isn't. Bad teams like the Mets and Cubs never had a chance at the playoffs, so they haven't had to deal with that sense of loss like the Nationals are dealing with now.

For whatever it's worth regarding the above, it was pretty clear the Nats wouldn't be postseason bound from early August when the Braves swept them at home. They played near perfect .500 ball every month of the season with one of the bottom-3 offenses in the NL for the first half and then played even worse in July and early August before finally coming to life.

[Roy Tucker]

If the Nats hitters are true men, they only think about beer and sex.

No ambivalences allowed.

[Brutus]

This goes against everything we know about psychology. It's more emotionally devastating to lose something you thought you had than to never have that thing in the first place. It's why blowing games in late innings is so emotionally devastating, while being blown out from the start really isn't. Bad teams like the Mets and Cubs never had a chance at the playoffs, so they haven't had to deal with that sense of loss like the Nationals are dealing with now.

The Cubs and Mets have no incentive to care about games in September no matter how good or bad they feel on a given day. Yet we have all the evidence in the world that shows teams that are eliminated don't wind up tanking very often.

Do you have data that proves blowing games in late innings impacts a team more than being blown out? Is there evidence that proves this theory? Do you have data that shows teams that just get eliminated are worse than teams that are already eliminated?

I really think you're grasping at straws here. Majorly. Psychology most certainly can impact performance, but in this situation, it's a very thin stance. Last night, you had made up your mind that if the Nationals lost today or tomorrow, it was because they were devastated. And now you're looking for things that corroborate your preconceived expectation (i.e. confirmation bias)

[Beltway]

I didn't say it's irrational, I just said it's not very likely that their mood is terribly different.

You're really grasping at straws, though, analyzing a player's mindset based on how they walk back to the dugout. Votto struck out looking twice tonight and looked awfully ambivalent about it. Does that mean he's given up?

You implied that it's irrational. You tried to make an argument as to why it would be irrational for the Nats to be depressed (they knew the playoffs were a long shot).

Right, looking at body language is the worst way to determine what a person is feeling. We evolved body language as a joke, not as a form of communication.

Votto looked ambivalent? That's a pretty difficult emotion to pick up through body language because it means his feelings are mixed. Simple emotions like anger, happiness, and sadness are relatively easy to pick up through body language. More complex feelings like ambivalence are not.

[1940757690]

Homer Bailey - Still reigning No-Hit King of the NL Central.

And, hopefully soon-to-be King of the 2013 WC playin. But, I know. I know. We'll be starting Latos in that game.

[1940757690]

The Cubs and Mets have no incentive to care about games in September no matter how good or bad they feel on a given day. Yet we have all the evidence in the world that shows teams that are eliminated don't wind up tanking very often.

Do you have data that proves blowing games in late innings impacts a team more than being blown out? Is there evidence that proves this theory? Do you have data that shows teams that just get eliminated are worse than teams that are already eliminated?

I really think you're grasping at straws here. Majorly. Psychology most certainly can impact performance, but in this situation, it's a very thin stance. Last night, you had made up your mind that if the Nationals lost today or tomorrow, it was because they were devastated. And now you're looking for things that corroborate your preconceived expectation (i.e. confirmation bias)

You implied that it's irrational. You tried to make an argument as to why it would be irrational for the Nats to be depressed (they knew the playoffs were a long shot).

Right, looking at body language is the worst way to determine what a person is feeling. We evolved body language as a joke, not as a form of communication.

Votto looked ambivalent? That's a pretty difficult emotion to pick up through body language because it means his feelings are mixed. Simple emotions like anger, happiness, and sadness are relatively easy to pick up through body language. More complex feelings like ambivalence are not.

Interesting discussion. With no sarcasm intended, I think you're both right...and wrong.

[Brutus]

You implied that it's irrational. You tried to make an argument as to why it would be irrational for the Nats to be depressed (they knew the playoffs were a long shot).

Right, looking at body language is the worst way to determine what a person is feeling. We evolved body language as a joke, not as a form of communication.

Votto looked ambivalent? That's a pretty difficult emotion to pick up through body language because it means his feelings are mixed. Simple emotions like anger, happiness, and sadness are relatively easy to pick up through body language. More complex feelings like ambivalence are not.

I don't know whether to laugh or cry.

You're telling me that you can watch a player on television after a strikeout based on how he reacts and you can accurately know that he's depressed about losing the night before rather than simply being upset over striking out?

The FBI should get you on their payroll as a FACS microexpression expert. Your talents are being wasted as a baseball fan behavioral analyst. Like I said, you made up your mind last night they would be 'devastated' and now you're looking for a few anecdotal reactions out of thousands in a game that confirm what you already expected.

[Beltway]

I don't know whether to laugh or cry.

You're telling me that you can watch a player on television after a strikeout based on how he reacts and you can accurately know that he's depressed about losing the night before rather than simply being upset over striking out?

You can't tell why (that's an assumption), but you can tell what they're feeling. They're called mirror neurons. Do you not have them? Some people don't (or they have less of them). They're the ones who have trouble connecting with others.

The FBI should get you on their payroll as a FACS microexpression expert. Your talents are being wasted as a baseball fan behavioral analyst.

Nah, I'm not interested in violating the Constitution and peoples' civil rights.