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Thread: Scoreboard Watching 2013 (Part 3)

  1. #886
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    Re: Scoreboard Watching 2013 (Part 3)

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    If you expect the Reds to host the WC and advance to the NLDS, they will have to win 3 of 4 vs Pitt. That is a tough hill to climb. (Maybe 25 percent chance of happening)

    Just don't lose sight of the fact that the only game that matters is next Tuesday.
    Just for kicks, I'll ask. We won 2 of 3 at PNC this past weekend. What were the chances of that happening according to your abacus last Thursday?
    Reds & Nats, 2013 LCS. Take2 (9/13) Reds but no Nats

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  3. #887
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Scoreboard Watching 2013 (Part 3)

    Quote Originally Posted by 1940757690 View Post
    Yeah, these are both right in my skewed vision of things. So, more likely than not we go back to PNC Tuesday. Unless Joey, Bruce, Todd, Luddy and the rest decide to start putting up 5 or more runs each of these last three against the champagne cork poppers? Not so likely that but I haven't been one of the more active crystal ball readers here. Love the posts with "25% chance of [this]" or "40% chance of [that]." Entertaining stuff to be sure. Never more than 50% and, of course, random number generated.
    I think that as far as probabilities are concerned, you can cheat and say these 2 teams are evenly matched.

    Now there are 2 prizes to be had.

    1) The Home WC game. The Pirates 1 game lead is 100 percent meaningless. Whoever wins the series in Cincy gets the game. Simple as that. And I give each team a 50/50 shot. Though if I dissect things a bit, if the Reds are able to bring Cueto out for a Sunday rubber game, advantage Cincinnati.

    2) The prize that counts. The winner of the Wildcard game. Forget the next 3 games in Cincy...all that matters is this one. Yes, an advantage to be had if you host the game, but it is a slight one...maybe gives a team 60/40 odds and that is being generous.

    All things being equal, each team has a 25 percent chance to sweep both "prizes", but I could care less about the next 3 games, and will try not to get too emotional either way. It boils down to Latos vs Liriano on Tuesday.

  4. #888
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Scoreboard Watching 2013 (Part 3)

    Quote Originally Posted by 1940757690 View Post
    Just for kicks, I'll ask. We won 2 of 3 at PNC this past weekend. What were the chances of that happening according to your abacus last Thursday?
    I would have said 50 percent chance the Reds would have won the series. Coinflip.

  5. #889
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    Re: Scoreboard Watching 2013 (Part 3)

    I'm sold. Both on 887 and 888 (your two above, Kal). I'm all about coin flips in cases like this since seems kind of futile to try and predict outomes. That said the logic around Tuesday is pretty unassailable imho.
    Reds & Nats, 2013 LCS. Take2 (9/13) Reds but no Nats

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    Re: Scoreboard Watching 2013 (Part 3)

    I like the Reds chances, though in baseball the chances are never that much greater.

    We've beaten the Pirates 8 of the last 13 games we've played them.

    The Pirates have played at a .500 clip for quite some time.

    Both us and the Pirates have played much better at home than on the road.

    Our run differential is about 70 better than theirs, which is very significant.

    I think we are about a 60/40 favorite to win 2 of 3.

    Getting home for the WC is important, as Liriano is much better at home than on the road. he certainly was today in Chicago, where he was continually in trouble before leaving having thrown 100 pitches in 5 innings, surrendering 4 runs.

    All and all, I expect us to be the favorite to advance, but it's certainly only in the 55-60% range. Which is better than 0%.

  7. #891
    5.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Scoreboard Watching 2013 (Part 3)

    Wow. Anyone watching this ATL-MIL situation? Gomez has pissed off another team. McCann almost kicked his ass before he could touch home on the HR.
    Rounding third and heading for home...

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    5.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Scoreboard Watching 2013 (Part 3)

    Gomez with a crazy clown move. I defended the guy after the Votto HR theft celebration, but this is nuts.

    I have never seen that in MLB. Looked like something from a (bad) softball league.
    Rounding third and heading for home...

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    TSJ55 (09-25-2013)

  10. #893
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    Re: Scoreboard Watching 2013 (Part 3)

    Call me crazy, guys, but I smell a third place World Series champion!

    Beer me if you're with me.
    Cincinnati Reds 2014 W-L Record: 76.6-85.4*

    Cincinnati Reds 2015 W-L Record: TBA

    *UPDATED: 2/11/2014

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    mdccclxix (09-25-2013)

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    Re: Scoreboard Watching 2013 (Part 3)

    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    Call me crazy, guys, but I smell a third place World Series champion!

    Beer me if you're with me.
    I'm not ready to concede the World Series to Pittsburgh yet.

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    MillerTime58 (09-26-2013)

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    Re: Scoreboard Watching 2013 (Part 3)

    Gomez w/ the most bush league maneuver I've ever seen. Then during the scrum he plays the role of coward yelling "hold me back" while moving backwards the whole time.
    Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count; everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted.

    All the dishes rattle in the cupboards when the elephants arrive

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    Always Red (09-25-2013)

  16. #896
    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: Scoreboard Watching 2013 (Part 3)

    Quote Originally Posted by TSJ55 View Post
    Gomez w/ the most bush league maneuver I've ever seen. Then during the scrum he plays the role of coward yelling "hold me back" while moving backwards the whole time.
    Saw the entire thing, the dude is crazy and a wuss to boot.

    This gonna stick to him.

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    TSJ55 (09-25-2013)

  18. #897
    Member Norm Chortleton's Avatar
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    Re: Scoreboard Watching 2013 (Part 3)

    It would have been funny if ATL had appealed the play because Gomez didn't touch the plate. The result would have been George Brett Pine Tar Reaction x 1,000.

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    Re: Scoreboard Watching 2013 (Part 3)

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    It would have been funny if ATL had appealed the play because Gomez didn't touch the plate. The result would have been George Brett Pine Tar Reaction x 1,000.
    Which Brewer plays the role of Brett? Can't be Gomez, the act contains too much movement toward the actual confrontation.
    Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count; everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted.

    All the dishes rattle in the cupboards when the elephants arrive

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    Always Red (09-25-2013)

  21. #899
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    Re: Scoreboard Watching 2013 (Part 3)

    Maybe the league will rule that
    all 2013 plays involving Carlos Gomez
    are void and declare the Reds division winners.

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    MillerTime58 (09-26-2013)

  23. #900
    Member Norm Chortleton's Avatar
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    Re: Scoreboard Watching 2013 (Part 3)

    at Mitch Williams absolutely crushing Gomez for being a ***** and acting like he wanted to fight.

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    Always Red (09-25-2013), TSJ55 (09-25-2013)


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