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Thread: Why ERA is becoming meaningless to me

  1. #16
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    Re: Why ERA is becoming meaningless to me

    Westbrook had a low ERA for most of the year, even though he walked more than he struck out.

    Many of us said it (the ERA) couldn't continue.

    It hasn't as his luck ran out.

    Bailey has pitched as well or better as most pitchers in the league this year. His stats don't show it, but he's on the verge of being considered a dominate MLB pitcher.

    He could conceivably be in the middle of a 18-6, 2.90 , 200 K season, if he had better luck. That Bailey for Profar trade would be realistic.

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  4. #17
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Why ERA is becoming meaningless to me

    Quote Originally Posted by swaisuc View Post
    A lot of this thread will depend on whether you believe stranding runners is a skill or if it's essentially random.
    LOB% regresses back to roughly 73%. It's tough to argue its a repeatable skill.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  5. #18
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    Re: Why ERA is becoming meaningless to me

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    But take a step back....

    The object of pitching is to hold the other team without many runs. Runs.

    You can have the best strikeout rate, the best OPS against rate, the best WHIP, the best of all these.

    But if you allow a bunch of runs, the impact on games is adverse.

    Now, obviously, these other stats are very important. Including the fielding independent stats, and league/park adjusted stats. They are all important.

    And sometimes, as Doug notes, ERA is impacted by BABIP which may make it unreliable.

    But at the end of the day, if you give up too many earned runs, you and your team have a problem. So ERA needs to be considered IMO.
    One can completely ignore ERA and really know all one needs to know about a pitcher. One can't understand ERA if they ignore his peripherals, luck metrics, indicators of the quality of the typical defense behind him and information about the environment he pitches in.....
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  7. #19
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Why ERA is becoming meaningless to me

    Bailey consistently has underpitched his peripherals. Seven years into his career I think we need to recognize that with Homer you're going to get slightly less than the sum of his parts. That's all right because he's still good, but it makes him more of a talented #3 pitcher.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  9. #20
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Why ERA is becoming meaningless to me

    I like team ERA as an rough representation of how many runs the run prevention unit is likely to give up per game.

    To me, there are other more useful individual pitching performance measures.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  10. #21
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    Re: Why ERA is becoming meaningless to me

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    I like team ERA as an rough representation of how many runs the run prevention unit is likely to give up per game.

    To me, there are other more useful individual pitching performance measures.
    Not to belabor the discussion, but I don't see ERA as a team stat nor do I think it represents the "run prevention unit's" effectiveness.

    Since it is limited to earned runs, the stat tells us nothing about a major aspect of team defense -- making errors, allowing unearned runs. These factors are completely absent. A team can lead the world in unearned runs allowed and it will have zero effect on ERA.

    ERA is limited to earned runs purposely to focus in on pitching performance. Now, obviously team defense (e.g., range) factors into earned runs allowed. But I think ERA is a pitcher's stat, although certainly not a perfect reflection of performance.

    The problem with ERA is the same problem that OPS, BA, and similar stats have. They are used as proxies for overall performance. But they are mere shortcuts and should be viewed as a starting point only. There are too many available stats that break things down more specifically.

  11. #22
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Why ERA is becoming meaningless to me

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Bailey has pitched as well or better as most pitchers in the league this year. His stats don't show it, but he's on the verge of being considered a dominate MLB pitcher..
    Bailey is very talented. I agree with you on that point.
    That said, I think he has underperformed his perphirals every year (including this one).
    On the other extreme, Bronson has consistently outperformed his peripherals.

    I think if we looked through the league, we could find more examples.

    I think this means that these peripheral measurements are useful tools, but aren't exactly the perfect measurement either. I know ERA isn't either.
    Baseball is such a complex game to model. We all want to sum up a player in a few tidy numbers, but the assumptions that are made in compiling these numbers are pretty huge.

    Think about it. We are comparing Latos to Homer early in the thread.
    The guys have not even pitched against the exactly the same teams this year.
    Different ballparks, different lineups (both sides), etc, etc.

    I can't pinpoint why Homer's peripherals don't translate into a higher percentage of Quality Starts, but this seems to have been the pattern throughout his career thus far. I know some people hate QS as much as ERA too, but QS% is something Homer needs to improve to be an ace IMO.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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  12. #23
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Why ERA is becoming meaningless to me

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Bailey consistently has underpitched his peripherals. Seven years into his career I think we need to recognize that with Homer you're going to get slightly less than the sum of his parts. That's all right because he's still good, but it makes him more of a talented #3 pitcher.
    How many #1s and #2s do you believe are out there? It's relevant when you claim Bailey is a 3.

  13. #24
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    Re: Why ERA is becoming meaningless to me

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    LOB% regresses back to roughly 73%. It's tough to argue its a repeatable skill.
    Just throwing some things out there. Possible "skill" reasons your ERA could outperform your other pitching stats...

    1. High K rate
    2. Induce lots of ground balls
    3. Induce lots of double plays
    4. Ability to hold on runners or pick runners off
    5. Lots of intentional walks
    6. Pitch better out of the stretch
    7. Great bullpen consistently strands runners you leave on

  14. #25
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    Re: Why ERA is becoming meaningless to me

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    How many #1s and #2s do you believe are out there? It's relevant when you claim Bailey is a 3.
    Bailey's lifetime record is 46-43 with a 4.33 ERA. His lifetime ERA+ is 95, league average is 100.

    Over the last two seasons he has a 3.68 ERA, exactly the same in 2012 and so far in 2013. His W-L record for that period is 21-20. His ERA+ in 2012 was 114, well over league average, this year it's 108. Mat Latos in the last two years has an ERA+ of 120 last year, 136 this year.

    I think number 3 starter is fair for a solid pitching team.

  15. #26
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    Re: Why ERA is becoming meaningless to me

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    So, great game by Latos today so I took a casual look at the Reds starter's stats.

    Bailey and Latos have had nearly identical years, with Bailey actually being better in regards to BB's and hits. They have just about the same OPS against .680 for Latos, .675 for Bailey. BAA .245 for Latos, .244 for Bailey.

    Latos has given up 62 runs 54 ER. Bailey 69 and 67.

    Both have been very, very good this year. All these numbers show it.

    ERA? pfft. I mean I'll still look, but I no longer take it as the gospel that a pitcher is pitching well like I would have when I was younger. I barely grasp advanced metrics. But I like the top level ones like OPS, WHIP H/9 etc. Easy enough to grasp, simple components that allow me to look a little deeper without breaking out a calculator.
    This is precisely why I consider ERA now an undervalued stat along with wins. I think Bailey CAN be as good as Latos, but his mentality is one that he loses it a little. His career ERA is a full run lower with Hanigan catching vs Mesoraco (171 IP 4.5 ERA, v 368 IP at 3.5) He needs the psychologist catcher. Here are their career stats in clutchish situations, Latos remains the same, Bailey needs Hannigan. In high leverage situations, Bailey has allowed 10 more HRs(over double in less AB) and 200 points on OPS. It may come down to fastball v slider as an out pitch. But the HR's in these situations would indicate that when Bailey is hit, he's being hit harder.

    Code:
    Latos	         G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip
    High Lvrge	122	655	574	127	126	22	4	7	48	137	2.85	0.220	0.280	0.308	0.588	0.270
    Medium Lvrge	131	1587	1450	133	363	73	13	43	114	327	2.87	0.250	0.307	0.408	0.714	0.295
    Low Lvrge	130	1083	993	41	206	39	4	25	86	300	3.49	0.207	0.273	0.330	0.603	0.271
    2 outs, RISP	122	353	293	80	60	14	3	3	56	82	1.46	0.205	0.340	0.304	0.644	0.274
    Ahead    	94	1500	1370	138	337	58	12	39	102	334	3.27	0.246	0.301	0.391	0.692	0.297
    Behind    	67	719	640	74	143	39	3	8	66	158	2.39	0.223	0.295	0.331	0.626	0.281
    Late & Close	49	236	216	17	53	8	5	2	14	46	3.29	0.245	0.293	0.356	0.650	0.302
    Hannigan	29	764	694	72	161	36	3	25	52	176	3.38	0.232	0.290	0.401	0.690	0.275
    Mesoraco	23	619	559	59	141	32	7	8	48	133	2.77	0.252	0.316	0.377	0.694	0.317
    																
    Bailey    	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip
    High Lvrge	124	601	523	179	153	28	4	17	44	126	2.86	0.293	0.340	0.459	0.799	0.343
    Medium Lvrge	135	1583	1433	142	375	63	11	45	120	307	2.56	0.262	0.324	0.415	0.739	0.304
    Low Lvrge	135	1265	1154	58	290	55	4	32	95	234	2.46	0.251	0.314	0.389	0.703	0.290
    2 outs, RISP	128	372	330	115	83	17	3	10	40	82	2.05	0.252	0.336	0.412	0.748	0.307
    Ahead    	95	1392	1259	149	335	64	7	36	110	274	2.49	0.266	0.326	0.414	0.740	0.311
    Behind    	79	879	773	121	222	38	2	28	79	140	1.77	0.287	0.360	0.450	0.810	0.319
    Late & Close	39	155	137	14	40	11	0	5	14	34	2.43	0.292	0.355	0.482	0.837	0.354
    Hannigan	59	1501	1374	142	318	57	8	36	100	326	3.26	0.231	0.288	0.363	0.652	0.277
    Mesoraco	29	758	688	89	199	33	8	23	53	135	2.55	0.289	0.343	0.461	0.803	0.328

  16. #27
    Member VR's Avatar
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    Re: Why ERA is becoming meaningless to me

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post

    I think number 3 starter is fair for a solid pitching team.
    #1 Starter stuff, #3 pitcher results.
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

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  18. #28
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    Re: Why ERA is becoming meaningless to me

    If you look above, Homer is great when things go well (2 no hitters)...
    but is much worse when things don't go well (high leverage situations and pitching when behind)

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  20. #29
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    Re: Why ERA is becoming meaningless to me

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    How many #1s and #2s do you believe are out there? It's relevant when you claim Bailey is a 3.
    I agree with the TALENTED 3.

    Underlying stats of a 1 - WHIP,FIP,WAR
    Results of a 3 - Wins (Tied for 32nd in the NL), ERA (29th in the NL)

    Those who think his ERA is random think of him as a 1, those who think the difference between ERA and FIP is controllable - whether clutch or inconsistencies in his game think of him as a 3.

    I personally think he presses when things don't go well, and becomes a worse pitcher than he should be.

  21. #30
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Why ERA is becoming meaningless to me

    I deliberately chose Bailey and Latos for the similarity of their numbers this year. Now swap Latos with Leake and you really see what I meant with this thread.

    I'm a discussion ninja.
    Suck it up cupcake.


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