Most overrated player in baseball?

[Tom Servo]

I just don't see Votto being a pumpkin several years from now. Worst case scenario, in my opinion, is that he becomes Todd Helton.

[oregonred]

I just don't see Votto being a pumpkin several years from now. Worst case scenario, in my opinion, is that he becomes Todd Helton.

Worse case scenario is that he becomes a DH in a non-DH league. The regression on defense and on the bases scares the crud out of me looking forward. I hope an offseason with a healthy knee will allow him to refocus.

I expect lean years at the backend of this contract (and datdudes) which makes it imperative that the Reds get some results in the short term.

[SporkLover]

I just don't see Votto being a pumpkin several years from now. Worst case scenario, in my opinion, is that he becomes Todd Helton.

I certainly dont see him turning into a Josh Hamilton, or Pujols.... just someone overpaid for the level of performance provided. Hopefully at that point there is enough money to have other talent on the roster, or to replenish the farm.

[RedlegJake]

Hmmmm. I think people are forgetting this is Joey Votto. This is the scientific hitter, modern day baseball's closest answer to Teddy ballgame. I mean that seriously. He doesn't have William's power but the science and study of hitting - he has that to a tee. He still refuses to make outs. He excels at that. I'll take his hitting numbers and never look backward - I don't see regression there at all. I see some lack of focus in the field - not at the plate. The Votto criticisms are getting silly. I expect Joey to age better than most on here. His kind of hitting ages better than the purely athletic hitter because Joey will adjust meaningfully as his body ages - he will figure out how to not make outs - he'll find new "happy zones" in William's words. The question is not whether Votto is going to be a great player but whether ANY player is worth 15-20% of a team's 25 man payroll. If the Reds cannot expand their payroll beyond 100-115 million in the future then they made a mistake but it wasn't because Joey isn't worth the dollars - it is because the Reds won't be able to afford his market value.

[SporkLover]

Hmmmm. I think people are forgetting this is Joey Votto. This is the scientific hitter, modern day baseball's closest answer to Teddy ballgame. I mean that seriously. He doesn't have William's power but the science and study of hitting - he has that to a tee. He still refuses to make outs. He excels at that. I'll take his hitting numbers and never look backward - I don't see regression there at all. I see some lack of focus in the field - not at the plate. The Votto criticisms are getting silly. I expect Joey to age better than most on here. His kind of hitting ages better than the purely athletic hitter because Joey will adjust meaningfully as his body ages - he will figure out how to not make outs - he'll find new "happy zones" in William's words. The question is not whether Votto is going to be a great player but whether ANY player is worth 15-20% of a team's 25 man payroll. If the Reds cannot expand their payroll beyond 100-115 million in the future then they made a mistake but it wasn't because Joey isn't worth the dollars - it is because the Reds won't be able to afford his market value.

Yeah sometimes I sound a little more bleak than intended to. To be more clear on Votto, I believe he will be a center piece of the Reds offense past the halfway point of his contract. Beyond that I don't expect him to be a Carlos Beltran, nor do I believe he can be a Carlos Beltran. Will he nose dive like those Angel hitters? Seriously doubt it, but at the point I dearly hope the Reds have gotten enough out of his prime years to justify the heavy end of his contract..... and that the Reds do things like expand payroll to bring in talent to take off the emphasis on Joey leading the offense.

So in short... I predict he will be at a point that the Reds are paying him much more than his market value.... I only hope there is a team around him to compensate for that.

[MikeThierry]

Of all the posts on Redszone over the past 3 months , the one post that Mike "has to respond to" (his words, not mine), is one suggesting Allen Craig is overrated less than 24 hours after he hits a game-winning grand slam against the Reds.

If Mike can't step back and realize the poor timing on that I don't know what to say.

I do believe he has a right to do so however. Much like we have the right to comment on it. Much like anyone that wants to can ignore all this.

Oh I'm sorry. Please tell me the "right timing" to respond to stupidity. Good god people need to grow a spine. I come on here probably twice a week to check on the topics going on and converse with people via PM. It's a topic that caught my eye and I responded. The topic was fresh (August 25) so it's not like I was dredging up something well over a week ago to "stick it to Reds fans here". Jesus...

[Brutus]

Oh I'm sorry. Please tell me the "right timing" to respond to stupidity. Good god people need to grow a spine. I come on here probably twice a week to check on the topics going on and converse with people via PM. It's a topic that caught my eye and I responded. The topic was fresh (August 25) so it's not like I was dredging up something well over a week ago to "stick it to Reds fans here". Jesus...

I don't see any "stupidity" about the opinion that was expressed. I don't happen to agree with it, but you're not doing any favors by calling it stupidity.

[kaldaniels]

Oh I'm sorry. Please tell me the "right timing" to respond to stupidity. Good god people need to grow a spine. I come on here probably twice a week to check on the topics going on and converse with people via PM. It's a topic that caught my eye and I responded. The topic was fresh (August 25) so it's not like I was dredging up something well over a week ago to "stick it to Reds fans here". Jesus...

I'm a simple person Mike, but I know better than to go over to Cardinalszone tonight and bump a couple day old post about how Jay Bruce is overrated.

I don't believe your initial post was malicious...but like I said, the one baseball topic that catches your eye and forces you to respond in 3 months is one about Craig right after he drives a stake in the Reds' heart? I'm only hoping you can step back and realize, yeah...that wasn't going to go over well.

[MikeThierry]

I'm a simple person Mike, but I know better than to go over to Cardinalszone tonight and bump a couple day old post about how Jay Bruce is overrated.

I don't believe your initial post was malicious...but like I said, the one baseball topic that catches your eye and forces you to respond in 3 months is one about Craig right after he drives a stake in the Reds' heart? I'm only hoping you can step back and realize, yeah...that wasn't going to go over well.

First off, it wasn't a couple of days old. Someone responded on August 25th. It was near the top of the list of current topics when I responded to it. Secondly, it caught my eye because the stance was kind of beyond ridiculous. When you look at it you just say to yourself "huh?...".

Also, it wasn't the first time I responded in 3 months. I commented on another thread that was more important than any of the things we're arguing about right now and I think you know what one that was.

[kaldaniels]

First off, it wasn't a couple of days old. Someone responded on August 25th. It was near the top of the list of current topics when I responded to it. Secondly, it caught my eye because the stance was kind of beyond ridiculous. When you look at it you just say to yourself "huh?...".

Also, it wasn't the first time I responded in 3 months. I commented on another thread that was more important than any of the things we're arguing about right now and I think you know what one that was.

I believe the post you were referring to was done on Sunday and you responded on Tuesday. If you want to split hairs about hours of the day on that it is fine but it is not the point.

Second, I said "baseball topic" for a reason.

You are catching a lot of slack from guys on here, a bit too much from some, but I just can't defend you in anyway (not that you are asking for my help, but I try to do the right thing) if you are just going to throw up your arms and say "what did I do?".

Look at the entire baseball season so far. When was the worst 24 hour period to be a Reds fan when it comes to the Cardinals? And when did you make your return? (not to mention about which player) C'mon.

[757690]

Matt Carpenter's defense.

People have been raving about how great of a job he's done at 2B defensively, I even remember some Cardinal fans, (on a different board) claiming he was better defensively than Phillips.

Last night's game was just one example of how poor he is on defense. Choo's hit to leadoff the game would have been an out with most other 2B in the league. Then on the grounder to Craig, Carpenter forgot to cover first. He makes mistakes like that quite often, throwing to the wrong bag, not being where he's supposed to be on a play, etc.

If you watch enough Cardinal games, you'll realize this is par for the course for Carpenter. He's Keppeningeresque at 2B, well below average defensively, and yet, you still hear about how great he is at 2B.

[RedlegJake]

Matt Carpenter's defense.

People have been raving about how great of a job he's done at 2B defensively, I even remember some Cardinal fans, (on a different board) claiming he was better defensively than Phillips.

Last night's game was just one example of how poor he is on defense. Choo's hit to leadoff the game would have been an out with most other 2B in the league. Then on the grounder to Craig, Carpenter forgot to cover first. He makes mistakes like that quite often, throwing to the wrong bag, not being where he's supposed to be on a play, etc.

If you watch enough Cardinal games, you'll realize this is par for the course for Carpenter. He's Keppeningeresque at 2B, well below average defensively, and yet, you still hear about how great he is at 2B.

If you can hit people suddenly think you can field. Especially true for 2nd and 3rd baseman. People don't give that cover to SS often but they do 2d and 3d. Casual fans and even some writers do it all the time. I like Carpenter's bat but his glove isn't even in the same hemisphere as BPs.

[redsfandan]

Votto's averaged about 6 WAR 4 seasons running. Not many guys are doing that. If he's overrated, it's a shame the expectations that have been thrown on him because he has been nothing short of elite.

Not too long ago in this thread 757690 said that "1B and LF are sluggers positions". Well, sure, Votto's still elite right now. But his slugging % needs to stop going down or calling him overrated will make more sense.

[redsfandan]

I just don't see Votto being a pumpkin several years from now. Worst case scenario, in my opinion, is that he becomes Todd Helton.

From 2018 to 2023 Joey will make $25M/yr. He'll be 34 at the start of 2018, 39 in 2023. In that same period (34-39) Helton has had an .802 ops. That's not that great especially from a 1st baseman that makes alot of money.

So, I sure hope he's not another Helton cuz then he'd be a player that only plays first, isn't an elite hitter anymore, and (even with a bigger payroll) he's still going to have a big contract.

[Tom Servo]

From 2018 to 2023 Joey will make $25M/yr. He'll be 34 at the start of 2018, 39 in 2023. In that same period (34-39) Helton has had an .802 ops. That's not that great especially from a 1st baseman that makes alot of money.

So, I sure hope he's not another Helton cuz then he'd be a player that only plays first, isn't an elite hitter anymore, and (even with a bigger payroll) he's still going to have a big contract.

You're right it's not great, that's why it is the worst case scenario. There are worse possibilities though, such as Ryan Howard and his .752 OPS over his age 32 and 33 seasons.

What I don't get is the sudden degree to which some Reds fans have turned on Votto. Hey, I get baseball is 'what have you done for me lately', but it is as though 2008-2012 never happened and a 2013 where Votto has merely been tremendous and a notch below excellent means he is overrated and he won't ever hit more HR's again and he's not clutch and on and on and on.

If you want to see a guy who went from excellent to legitmately overrated, check out my point about Adrian Gonzalez earlier.

Over the last two seasons Adrian Gonzalez has hit .299/.345/.461/.806, which by itself is a respectable line but for a guy getting his money, recognition, and reputation, it's a high tumble down from his .306/.403/.536/.940 line from 2009-2011.

In the time since I posted that, that line has now fallen to .296/.341/.458/.799, so his OPS over the past two seasons is now below .800.