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Thread: Most overrated player in baseball?

  1. #166
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    Re: Most overrated player in baseball?

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Worry about 2018 when it gets here, for tomorrow we may all die
    LOL I hear ya!!

    Hopefully the Reds front office is keeping an eye that far out!

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  3. #167
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: Most overrated player in baseball?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I think the Reds are willing to take the chance that Votto doesn't provide the necessarry production to justify his salary from 2018-2023. That's the price of guaranteeing that he's a Red from 2012-2017 and providing much more production than his salary during those years.
    Yes I agree.

    The idea is that his total production over the life of the contract would be worth $238 million dollars (which is the value of his contract according to baseball-reference.com). The Reds felt Votto would outperform his salary in the early years and probably underperform his salary in the later years. The people who are assigning salaries to specific years are missing the point.

    They could have structured the contract to pay him more per season in the early years, then less per season in the later years. That would make more sense if they really wanted to pay him on his expected production for each season. Perhaps his salaries would have been arranged like this:

    Votto's Real Contract:
    2014 - $12 million
    2015 - $14 million
    2016 - $20 million
    2017 - $22 million
    2018 - $25 million
    2019 - $25 million
    2020 - $25 million
    2021 - $25 million
    2022 - $25 million
    2023 - $25 million
    2024 - $20 million
    Total - $238 million

    This contract (the real one) makes Votto a bargain in the early years and overpays him in the later years.

    Votto's Alternative Contract:
    2014 - $36 million
    2015 - $33 million
    2016 - $30 million
    2017 - $27 million
    2018 - $24 million
    2019 - $21 million
    2020 - $18 million
    2021 - $15 million
    2022 - $13 million
    2023 - $11 million
    2024 - $10 million
    Total - $238 million

    The Alternative Contract pays him according to the amount of value the team predicts Votto will produce on the field that season.

    Either way it is the same amount of money. The Alternative Contract would make more sense in terms of paying him directly for his expected levels of production each season. He would be expected to play his best baseball at the beginning of the contract and gradually decline as he ages. This would alleviate the concern that a lot of people have, namely that he won't be worth $25 million per season in his late 30's and his exorbitant salary will become an albatross on the team's payroll.

    Alleviating that concern sounds like a good thing, but actually it is not. The reason is because it would actually cost the Reds a lot more to structure the deal in this fashion. The value of a dollar today is higher than it will be 10 years from now, and most importantly you retain the ability to use and invest that cash for several extra years.

    You can set aside a lesser amount of money today and put it in bond funds or other conservative, interest-bearing investments and when the higher salaries are due your reserved money will have grown enough to pay them. For example, invest $10 million of the money you saved by paying Votto a lower salary in 2014 and in 10 years that $10 million will grow into perhaps $18 million. In this way you can pay the $238 million total dollars by setting aside perhaps $185 million today. If you paid him more in the early years of the contract it would cost you more like $225 million total. If you can defer money towards the back end of the contract it actually reduces the real-world cost of the contract. So by deferring the payments it can save the Reds tens of millions of dollars over the life of the contract. That is why contracts are structured with the highest payments at the end when the player's production has declined significantly. The Reds obviously realize that he will not be worth $25 million per year in 2023, but that is totally irrelevant.

    Think of it like this, if your friend asked to borrow $1000 from you and promised to pay it back in 10 years would you do it? Your friend could take that $1000 and put it in a savings account earning 5% interest and leave it there for 10 years. With compounded interest that $1000 savings account 10 years later would have about $1700 in it. He would pay you back the $1000 and have $700 left over. Essentially that is what the Reds have done with Joey Votto's money. They structured the deal where they get to keep much of the money in their accounts for several extra years. Over those years that money will grow and leave them with more money to spend in subsequent years. That is why contracts in baseball are so frequently backloaded with the largest salaries in the later years when the player has already declined.

    If people realized this maybe they wouldn't constantly complain about players not being worth their salaries in the last years of long-term contracts.
    Last edited by AtomicDumpling; 09-01-2013 at 03:09 AM.

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  5. #168
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Most overrated player in baseball?

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    Yes I agree.

    The idea is that his total production over the life of the contract would be worth $238 million dollars (which is the value of his contract according to baseball-reference.com). The Reds felt Votto would outperform his salary in the early years and probably underperform his salary in the later years. The people who are assigning salaries to specific years are missing the point.

    They could have structured the contract to pay him more per season in the early years, then less per season in the later years. That would make more sense if they really wanted to pay him on his expected production for each season. Perhaps his salaries would have been arranged like this:

    Votto's Real Contract:
    2014 - $12 million
    2015 - $14 million
    2016 - $20 million
    2017 - $22 million
    2018 - $25 million
    2019 - $25 million
    2020 - $25 million
    2021 - $25 million
    2022 - $25 million
    2023 - $25 million
    2024 - $20 million
    Total - $238 million

    This contract (the real one) makes Votto a bargain in the early years and overpays him in the later years.

    Votto's Alternative Contract:
    2014 - $36 million
    2015 - $33 million
    2016 - $30 million
    2017 - $27 million
    2018 - $24 million
    2019 - $21 million
    2020 - $18 million
    2021 - $15 million
    2022 - $13 million
    2023 - $11 million
    2024 - $10 million
    Total - $238 million

    The Alternative Contract pays him according to the amount of value the team predicts Votto will produce on the field that season.

    Either way it is the same amount of money. The Alternative Contract would make more sense in terms of paying him directly for his expected levels of production each season. He would be expected to play his best baseball at the beginning of the contract and gradually decline as he ages. This would alleviate the concern that a lot of people have, namely that he won't be worth $25 million per season in his late 30's and his exorbitant salary will become an albatross on the team's payroll.

    Alleviating that concern sounds like a good thing, but actually it is not. The reason is because it would actually cost the Reds a lot more to structure the deal in this fashion. The value of a dollar today is higher than it will be 10 years from now, and most importantly you retain the ability to use and invest that cash for several extra years.

    You can set aside a lesser amount of money today and put it in bond funds or other conservative, interest-bearing investments and when the higher salaries are due your reserved money will have grown enough to pay them. For example, invest $10 million of the money you saved by paying Votto a lower salary in 2014 and in 10 years that $10 million will grow into perhaps $18 million. In this way you can pay the $238 million total dollars by setting aside perhaps $185 million today. If you paid him more in the early years of the contract it would cost you more like $225 million total. If you can defer money towards the back end of the contract it actually reduces the real-world cost of the contract. So by deferring the payments it can save the Reds tens of millions of dollars over the life of the contract. That is why contracts are structured with the highest payments at the end when the player's production has declined significantly. The Reds obviously realize that he will not be worth $25 million per year in 2023, but that is totally irrelevant.

    Think of it like this, if your friend asked to borrow $1000 from you and promised to pay it back in 10 years would you do it? Your friend could take that $1000 and put it in a savings account earning 5% interest and leave it there for 10 years. With compounded interest that $1000 savings account 10 years later would have about $1700 in it. He would pay you back the $1000 and have $700 left over. Essentially that is what the Reds have done with Joey Votto's money. They structured the deal where they get to keep much of the money in their accounts for several extra years. Over those years that money will grow and leave them with more money to spend in subsequent years. That is why contracts in baseball are so frequently backloaded with the largest salaries in the later years when the player has already declined.

    If people realized this maybe they wouldn't constantly complain about players not being worth their salaries in the last years of long-term contracts.
    Well, I'm glad he's not making $36,000,000 this year.

  6. #169
    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
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    Re: Most overrated player in baseball?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Craig plays firstbase, poorly. It's easy to get a decent hitting bad glove 1B. He's Lyle Overbay, Adam LaRoche, Scott Hatteberg. He's a middle of the pack 1B. Not a bad player, a nice player to have in the cheap. But every team can find guys like this to play first base. He's not an All-Star, and definitley not an MVP candidate, but he's on many people's list this year.

    Bruce is an above average fielder and base runner. He clearly one if the best RF'ers in the league. The game isn't all about offense.
    Putting aside the Craig vs Bruce comparison, Craig isn't middle-of-the pack at first base. There are 30 starting 1B in the major leagues. Judging by RC27, here are the 1B having a better year than Craig.

    1. Chris Davis 10.091
    2. Joey Votto 8.426
    3. Paul Goldschmidt 7.865
    4. Freddie Freeman 6.994
    5. Edwin Encarnacion 6.878
    Allan Craig 6.664

    6th out of 30 is not middle-of-the pack. That's where your whole premise breaks down. Add to it the fact that Rc27 doesn't account for RBIs or clutch hitting (if you believe in that stuff) and Craig should get more points for that. Add to it that Craig can play the OF competently (though not great) when the Cards want to make room for another lefty bat, Mike Adams, in the lineup. Add to it that Craig had a terrible April and it's not unreasonable to think he'll pass Freeman and Encarnacion before the end of the year.

    I see him as vastly, vastly underrated. That may change some day (see my earlier point about Craig Biggio and Bobby Abreu who were underrated for years and eventually became overrated) but for now I don't think most people appreciate him enough.
    How, then, are those people of the future—who are taking steroids every day—going to look back on baseball players who used steroids? They're going to look back on them as pioneers. They're going to look back at it and say "So what?" - Bill James, Cooperstown and the 'Roids

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  8. #170
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Most overrated player in baseball?

    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnati chili View Post
    Putting aside the Craig vs Bruce comparison, Craig isn't middle-of-the pack at first base. There are 30 starting 1B in the major leagues. Judging by RC27, here are the 1B having a better year than Craig.

    1. Chris Davis 10.091
    2. Joey Votto 8.426
    3. Paul Goldschmidt 7.865
    4. Freddie Freeman 6.994
    5. Edwin Encarnacion 6.878
    Allan Craig 6.664

    6th out of 30 is not middle-of-the pack. That's where your whole premise breaks down. Add to it the fact that Rc27 doesn't account for RBIs or clutch hitting (if you believe in that stuff) and Craig should get more points for that. Add to it that Craig can play the OF competently (though not great) when the Cards want to make room for another lefty bat, Mike Adams, in the lineup. Add to it that Craig had a terrible April and it's not unreasonable to think he'll pass Freeman and Encarnacion before the end of the year.

    I see him as vastly, vastly underrated. That may change some day (see my earlier point about Craig Biggio and Bobby Abreu who were underrated for years and eventually became overrated) but for now I don't think most people appreciate him enough.
    He's middle of the pack in that he's not elite. He may be 6th in some offensive stats, but he bunched up in the middle of a group of good but not great hitters there. He may be 6th but he's a lot closer to being 13th than 3rd. His stats are much closer to Napoli and Lind than they are to Votto and Davis.

    The point of being overrated is that the players' true talent level is lower than what he's perceived to be. Craig is an All-Star who has been mentioned many times as an MVP candidate. He's not an All-Star caliber player, even your list suggests that, and he's nowhere near an MVP candidate, other than his RBI numbers.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  9. #171
    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
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    Re: Most overrated player in baseball?

    Watching the Indians/Tigers game right now, I have to say that Mike Aviles might be the most overrated major leaguer by virtue of the fact that MLB organizations continue to give him a job (ha - he hit a grand slam as I typed this).
    How, then, are those people of the future—who are taking steroids every day—going to look back on baseball players who used steroids? They're going to look back on them as pioneers. They're going to look back at it and say "So what?" - Bill James, Cooperstown and the 'Roids

  10. #172
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    Re: Most overrated player in baseball?

    Joey Votto or Josh Hamilton

  11. #173
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Most overrated player in baseball?

    Quote Originally Posted by Redsfan08 View Post
    Joey Votto or Josh Hamilton
    I like jokes as much as the next guy, but this one went right over my head. One guy is among the league leaders in avg/obp/slg and the other guy flat out stinks. You are going to have to explain this joke to me.

  12. #174
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    Re: Most overrated player in baseball?

    Anthony Rizzo

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  14. #175
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    Re: Most overrated player in baseball?

    Joey Votto...hands down, not a contest.

  15. #176
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    Re: Most overrated player in baseball?

    Given some of these posts, I'm expecting someone to say "Whiffey" any minute now.

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  17. #177
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    Re: Most overrated player in baseball?

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    Yes I agree.

    The idea is that his total production over the life of the contract would be worth $238 million dollars (which is the value of his contract according to baseball-reference.com). The Reds felt Votto would outperform his salary in the early years and probably underperform his salary in the later years. The people who are assigning salaries to specific years are missing the point.

    ...............

    If people realized this maybe they wouldn't constantly complain about players not being worth their salaries in the last years of long-term contracts.
    I think the biggest concern is not whether or not he is going to be worth it... But when his contract price starts to balloon what moves the Reds will make to ensure that his contract price vs performance level is not a burden on the team.

    Will they start making more of a concerted effort on the scouting, drafting front and build a cost controlled talent pool around him (they're certainly not there yet)? Will they bump up payroll to keep the good and big pieces around (datdude was told they couldn't afford heavy salaries during his negotiations)? Will they find an income stream that can possibly offset any ill effects of a Votto albatross contract(media rights negotiations are expected to double that income stream) ?

    For me as a non Yankee/Boston/LAD/LAA baseball fan the idea of a ten year contract is scary. 10 years is a long commitment, and 20% of payroll is a huge cost, and it could potentially (so far I'm not sure if any have panned out) be a bad gamble.

    Yes there are things that can be done to mitigate those issues... But it's just a nagging worry.

  18. #178
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Most overrated player in baseball?

    Quote Originally Posted by mrherd05 View Post
    Joey Votto...hands down, not a contest.
    Seriously, can someone please explain the joke to me. I am usually clever enough to get it, but this one just continues to go over my head.

  19. #179
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    Re: Most overrated player in baseball?

    Quote Originally Posted by DocRed View Post
    Anthony Rizzo
    Yeah, I'm not seeing it.

  20. #180
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    Re: Most overrated player in baseball?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I like jokes as much as the next guy, but this one went right over my head. One guy is among the league leaders in avg/obp/slg and the other guy flat out stinks. You are going to have to explain this joke to me.
    and what good has those numbers done for this team in my opinion Joey Votto is nothng more than an overpaid Sean Casey.


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