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Thread: Cubs expected to pursue CHOO..

  1. #106
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    Re: Cubs expected to pursue CHOO..

    That April start he had was very Bruuuuce-like. If he comes anywhere close to that during playoff time, he is going to be a filthy rich man. Not that he won't already.

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  3. #107
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    Re: Cubs expected to pursue CHOO..

    I see the Reds' chances of signing Choo at about 25%. Much higher than where I would've put it a month or two ago. I see a guy having the time of his life (and a career year) on a championship-caliber team that is loaded with talent now and for the near future. This might go a long way with Choo, maybe more so than a few million dollars would. I would like to see Walt offer an aggressive 3-year contract in the $50MM range. Next year Choo could split time with Hamilton in CF and Ludwick in RF, shifting over to LF permanently after Ludwick leaves. Perfect bridge to the Winker/Ervin crop.

    If that doesn't get it done, you take the pick, thank Choo for his incredible year, and look for a guy who can fit the same role: a CF/LF type, preferable one who can crush righties and/or find first base better than what will be left of the post-Choo roster next year.

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  5. #108
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    Re: Cubs expected to pursue CHOO..

    I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade, but you're not going to be able to offer 15-17 million to Choo for 3- 4 years, not without a significant increase in the 106 million budget. Or if you do, prepare to say goodbye to Bailey, Leake, and maybe Latos as well.

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    Re: Cubs expected to pursue CHOO..

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    There has been and is nothing stopping the Reds from having a conversation with any of these pitchers' agents before they hit free agency. I've been a big advocate of figuring out what it will take to extend them now, and plan and proceed accordingly.
    I think it's extremely unlikely that the Reds and Bailey/Latos will force the long-term deal issue by October or November 2013. It would be different if either pitcher was an impending free agent.

    I would think Choo will get a lot of money. He has fan appeal, he can hit anywhere in the lineup, he is liked by the modern stats/OBP folks, he is relatively young. Very solid citizen.

    Big market teams will be all over him IMO. Hope I'm wrong and he stays, but it's kind of hard to imagine.

    Huge hole to fill on offense, Reds will have to be creative this off-season.

  8. #110
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    Re: Cubs expected to pursue CHOO..

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I think it's extremely unlikely that the Reds and Bailey/Latos will force the long-term deal issue by October or November 2013. It would be different if either pitcher was an impending free agent.
    Based off of what? Didn't they have the conversation and then extend Votto, Phillips, Bruce and Cueto - all at least a year before they hit free agency?

    I'm not even suggesting they *have* to lock those guys up first, necessarily, but they need to figure out what it will likely take to do it, then properly budget and plan accordingly. I think extending Latos (and probably one more starter) has to be a priority long before Choo- whoever's contract actually gets signed first is not really the issue. I just don't want a Choo extension to prevent them from signing Latos and/or another starter because there is no longer enough money left over. That's all I'm saying.

    I would think Choo will get a lot of money. He has fan appeal, he can hit anywhere in the lineup, he is liked by the modern stats/OBP folks, he is relatively young. Very solid citizen.

    Big market teams will be all over him IMO. Hope I'm wrong and he stays, but it's kind of hard to imagine.

    Huge hole to fill on offense, Reds will have to be creative this off-season.
    Agree with everything except him being relatively young. He's on the wrong side of 30 (unfortunately as am I). That shouldn't be overlooked.
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  9. #111
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    Re: Cubs expected to pursue CHOO..

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    ...
    Agree with everything except him being relatively young. He's on the wrong side of 30 (unfortunately as am I). That shouldn't be overlooked.
    Jayson Werth (34) is having a near-career year in Washington this year threatening for the NL batting crown and should easily be a top 5 or 7 so MVP choice. He's a few years older than Choo. Likewise Adam LaRoche (another 'wrong sider' at 33) last year.

    That said, I'd guess a real analysis of wrong-siders would show what most of us might expect: productivity declines after 30 with a player's best years typically in the mid/late 20s. Will say I think such an analysis would be insufficient though. Someone probably has done some good quantitative work looking at what attributes typically correlate with high-performing thirty somethings. So, maybe not sufficient to just roughly assume wrong-sider decline but, rather, better to incorporate injury history, position, type of hitter and personal factors in a more sophisticated evaluation.

    Surprising that so many teams seem to get this wrong (Rodriquez and Pujols being the two most infamous current examples) given how much analytical effort is now part of MLB talent assessment. Still some opportunity to refine the approach I guess. Or, it may be another example of the limitations of quant used in isolation.

    Choo feels like he might be a bit different (better) than the "bad" examples like the busts on the Angels and Yanks but, as of right now, I lack the data to support that gut feel.
    Last edited by 1940757690; 09-10-2013 at 02:45 PM.
    Reds & Nats, 2013 LCS. Take2 (9/13) Reds but no Nats

  10. #112
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    Re: Cubs expected to pursue CHOO..

    Quote Originally Posted by 1940757690 View Post
    Jayson Werth (34) is having a near-career year in Washington this year threatening for the NL batting crown and should easily be a top 5 or 7 so MVP choice. He's a few years older than Choo. Likewise Adam LaRoche (another 'wrong sider' at 33) last year.

    That said, I'd guess a real analysis of wrong-siders would show what most of us might expect: productivity declines after 30 with a player's best years typically in the mid/late 20s. Will say I think such an analysis would be insufficient though. Someone probably has done some good quantitative work looking at what attributes typically correlate with high-performing thirty somethings. So, maybe not sufficient to just roughly assume wrong-sider decline but, rather, better to incorporate injury history, position, type of hitter and personal factors in a more sophisticated evaluation.

    Surprising that so many teams seem to get this wrong (Rodriquez and Pujols being the two most infamous current examples) given how much analytical effort is now part of MLB talent assessment. Still some opportunity to refine the approach I guess. Or, it may be another example of the limitations of quant used in isolation.

    Choo feels like he might be a bit different (better) than the "bad" examples like the busts on the Angels and Yanks but, as of right now, I lack the data to support that gut feel.
    Fair point, but I'll ask this - how many hitters can you recall that have signed four year deals (or longer) when they were 31 or older - that have been great signings (in retrospect)? That, along with the fact that 4 of the Reds top 5 prospects are OF, and 4 of the Reds 5 starting pitchers will hit FA during that time, is why I wouldn't go more than 3 years on a deal with Choo.
    Go BLUE!!!

  11. #113
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    Re: Cubs expected to pursue CHOO..

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Based off of what? Didn't they have the conversation and then extend Votto, Phillips, Bruce and Cueto - all at least a year before they hit free agency?

    .
    Generally these non-free agent long-term contracts are not signed immediately after the season ends. Bruce signed in December, I believe, the others later on.

    Here, to lock up Bailey/Latos before Choo, Reds would have to announce the signing almost immediately after the season ends. Possible, but unlikely.

  12. #114
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    Re: Cubs expected to pursue CHOO..

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Generally these non-free agent long-term contracts are not signed immediately after the season ends. Bruce signed in December, I believe, the others later on.

    Here, to lock up Bailey/Latos before Choo, Reds would have to announce the signing almost immediately after the season ends. Possible, but unlikely.
    Less concerned with when the deal is signed and/or announced, but more concerned with the Reds having an understanding of what their resources are and how much they will need to deploy in order to accomplish their goals (ie extending these pitchers). So long as they are putting enough aside for that purpose (which is a huge assumption), I am fine extending Choo- ideally for 3 years or less.
    Go BLUE!!!

  13. #115
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    Re: Cubs expected to pursue CHOO..

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Fair point, but I'll ask this - how many hitters can you recall that have signed four year deals (or longer) when they were 31 or older - that have been great signings (in retrospect)? That, along with the fact that 4 of the Reds top 5 prospects are OF, and 4 of the Reds 5 starting pitchers will hit FA during that time, is why I wouldn't go more than 3 years on a deal with Choo.
    I think we're mostly agreeing here. How many can I recall? Well, crap, I wouldn't base anything on that since I'm also a wrong-sider

    But, again, I agree that hypothesizing that most wrong-siders, or thirty-somethings signed to LT deals don't pay off makes sense. In the case of Choo, if we could get him for 60/4 but not 45/3, would you do it? I might but based only on a pretty thorough review of many factors. And 4 years would probably be my limit. Agree with many others here that 4 probably won't be a long enough deal for him and that the Cubs, Mets or whomever will likely be happy to offer him 5 or 6.

    Prompts a related point. Assuming the Cubs and Mets do pursue him with 5+ year deals, are they idiots? Don't they see what's happened with ARod and with Pujols, among others?

    I think there's nothing idiotic about that and any who'll criticize their owners as fools miss the point. And, that's because there are many owners more trying to "field a winner" to goose revenues and keep fans interested than doing whatever it takes to win a World Series. That's just reality IMHO.
    Reds & Nats, 2013 LCS. Take2 (9/13) Reds but no Nats

  14. #116
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    Re: Cubs expected to pursue CHOO..

    Quote Originally Posted by Mitri View Post
    I see the Reds' chances of signing Choo at about 25%. Much higher than where I would've put it a month or two ago. I see a guy having the time of his life (and a career year) on a championship-caliber team that is loaded with talent now and for the near future. This might go a long way with Choo, maybe more so than a few million dollars would. I would like to see Walt offer an aggressive 3-year contract in the $50MM range. Next year Choo could split time with Hamilton in CF and Ludwick in RF, shifting over to LF permanently after Ludwick leaves. Perfect bridge to the Winker/Ervin crop.

    If that doesn't get it done, you take the pick, thank Choo for his incredible year, and look for a guy who can fit the same role: a CF/LF type, preferable one who can crush righties and/or find first base better than what will be left of the post-Choo roster next year.
    I've often wondered the same thing about Choo...is he a guy who is very comfortable around Votto, Bruce, etc.? He sure seems like he loves it here. And his wife and kids live in Arizona, very close to where the Reds train. Can Boras talk him into taking the bigger money to play under higher pressure in Chicago, NY, or the west coast?

    On your second point, I think DeJesus would be a great fit if Tampa chooses not to pickup his $6.5 million option.

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    Re: Cubs expected to pursue CHOO..

    Quote Originally Posted by 1940757690 View Post
    I think we're mostly agreeing here. How many can I recall? Well, crap, I wouldn't base anything on that since I'm also a wrong-sider

    But, again, I agree that hypothesizing that most wrong-siders, or thirty-somethings signed to LT deals don't pay off makes sense. In the case of Choo, if we could get him for 60/4 but not 45/3, would you do it? I might but based only on a pretty thorough review of many factors. And 4 years would probably be my limit. Agree with many others here that 4 probably won't be a long enough deal for him and that the Cubs, Mets or whomever will likely be happy to offer him 5 or 6.

    Prompts a related point. Assuming the Cubs and Mets do pursue him with 5+ year deals, are they idiots? Don't they see what's happened with ARod and with Pujols, among others?

    I think there's nothing idiotic about that and any who'll criticize their owners as fools miss the point. And, that's because there are many owners more trying to "field a winner" to goose revenues and keep fans interested than doing whatever it takes to win a World Series. That's just reality IMHO.
    Yep, and don't forget about the Braves with BJ Upton (although its hardly affecting the team's performance this year) and the Angels with Hamilton.
    Go BLUE!!!

  16. #118
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    Re: Cubs expected to pursue CHOO..

    Quote Originally Posted by Mitri View Post
    If that doesn't get it done, you take the pick, thank Choo for his incredible year, and look for a guy who can fit the same role: a CF/LF type, preferable one who can crush righties and/or find first base better than what will be left of the post-Choo roster next year.
    If Choo gets 4 years or more, the guy I want the Reds to target is Carlos Beltran. Weaken the Cards and strengthen the Reds. 2 year deal: 1 year in CF and 1 year in LF. Perfect time and perfect player to bridge to the prospects. Plus I doubt he'll cost a draft pick (IF Cards make him a qualifying offer, I'd be very surprised if he didn't take it).

    [In the interest of full disclosure, I also really wanted Reds to sign Beltran 2 years ago when he ended up signing with St. Louis.]
    Last edited by Benihana; 09-10-2013 at 04:40 PM.
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  18. #119
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    Re: Cubs expected to pursue CHOO..

    You don't think Beltran would be a disaster in CF? I do, but I really like the idea. I think his days in the NL nearing an end.

    I still wonder what it'd take to pry away Colby Rasmus from the Jays. He'll be getting expensive over these next arb years so it may not take much in the way of prospects, though Toronto may want an ML-ready guy like Leake (which I wouldn't do) or Chapman.

  19. #120
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    Re: Cubs expected to pursue CHOO..

    Quote Originally Posted by Mitri View Post
    You don't think Beltran would be a disaster in CF? I do, but I really like the idea. I think his days in the NL nearing an end.

    I still wonder what it'd take to pry away Colby Rasmus from the Jays. He'll be getting expensive over these next arb years so it may not take much in the way of prospects, though Toronto may want an ML-ready guy like Leake (which I wouldn't do) or Chapman.
    He may not need to play much of it - he could play LF against RHP and let Billy ease into the CF job by only playing against RHP (I can't remember what Hamilton's splits look like). In 2015, he'd be a full-time LF.

    So would Beltran be a disaster for 80 starts in CF against LHP? I don't think so- at least no reason to think he'd be all that much more a disaster than Choo has been this year.
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